The current round of massive Corona Virus easing began Monday March 16th, 2020, with the FED buying $40 billion in Treasuries and then buying another $50 billion in Treasuries on Tuesday. By Thursday morning, it had upped the plan to $75 billion PER DAY and added $10 billion in mortgage securities. By Friday morning, the Fed had decided to buy $107 billion worth of Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities. In its first week, the FED purchased $317 billion worth of assets, which is slightly faster than the Fed balance sheet grew at the height of the 2008-2009 financial crisis. Initially, the Federal Reserve estimated purchases of $500 billion but FED chief Jerome Powell said the initial … [Read more...]
Does the FED Control Mortgage Rates?
For new home buyers, anything that increases the cost of the purchase (like rising mortgage interest rates) can negatively impact your ability to be able to afford your home. That is why everyone is concerned when the Federal Reserve (i.e. the FED) raises interest rates. The following chart shows how the Fed Funds Rate has performed from January 2015 through July 2019. The FED lowered the FED Funds rate to near zero in response to the market crash in 2008-2009. It kept it there until January 2016 when it began gradually raising rates. However, at their July end meeting, they decided to lower interest rates, reducing the federal funds rate target by 25 basis points, to a range of 2% to 2.25%. … [Read more...]
February Inflation Falls to 2.33%
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its February Inflation report on March 11th, 2020, for the 12 months through the end of February 2020. Annual Inflation Falls Annual inflation fell from the high set at 2.49% in January to 2.33% in February. CPI Index in February was 258.678 up from January's 257.971, December was 256.974, November was 257.208 down from October's 257.346 Monthly Inflation for January was 0.39%, while February was 0.27% down from 0.42% in February 2019. Next release April 10th Currently, the inflation rate is above the FED's target 2% rate. But the FED is concerned with a market meltdown due to falling Oil prices and the Coronavirus so … [Read more...]
What Impact Does Interest Rates and Inflation Targets Have on Stocks?
Why is The FED's Targeted Inflation Rate Important in the US? Since 2012, the Fed has targeted an inflation rate of 2%. They have deemed this a healthy rate of inflation, necessary for economic growth. According to the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, since 1977, the Federal Reserve has operated under a mandate from Congress to "promote effectively the goals of maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate long term interest rates" this is called a "dual mandate" in that it is supposed to balance a healthy economy with stable prices not just target low inflation. When the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meets, their job is to fulfill this mandate. The Fed has … [Read more...]
How the FED Controls the Money Supply
When the government spends more money than it receives in taxes it has a “deficit” situation. In order to deal with this deficit, it engages in some fancy bookkeeping. The government is made up of a variety of agencies, so the other agencies request money from the Treasury Department. If it doesn’t have enough money the Treasury Department issues an IOU (called a Government Bond). The Treasury gives the Bond to the Federal Reserve (which is theoretically not part of the government). The FED writes a check to the Treasury for the bond. It then breaks up the bond into smaller bonds and sells them to individual banks. The banks then sell them to individual investors and groups of … [Read more...]
January Inflation Spikes to 2.49%
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its January Inflation report on February 13th, 2020, for the 12 months through the end of January 2020. Annual Inflation Jumps Up Again Annual inflation tops the 2019 high set in December at 2.29% reaching 2.49% in January. CPI Index in January was up almost 1 point to 257.971, December was 256.974, November was 257.208 down from October's 257.346 Monthly Inflation for January was 0.39%, December was -0.09% up from 0.19% in January 2019. Next release March 11th Annual inflation for the 12 months ending in January was up to 2.49%. Annual inflation in December was 2.29%. The CPI index itself rose almost exactly a full … [Read more...]
December Inflation is Up
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its December Inflation report on January 14th, 2020, for the 12 months through the end of December 2019. December Inflation Jumps Up Annual inflation tops the 2019 high set in November at 2.05% reaching 2.29%. CPI Index in December was 256.974, November was 257.208 down from October's 257.346 Monthly Inflation for December was -0.09% up from -0.32% in December 2018. Next release February 13th The CPI index itself decreased again this month (i.e. prices were actually lower this month than last month). October's CPI Index was 257.346, November's decreased to 257.208 and December's decreased again to 256.974 but each time … [Read more...]
October Inflation has Slight Increase
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its October Inflation report on November 13th, 2019, for the 12 months through the end of October 2019. Annual Inflation is Up Very Slightly Annual inflation in October was 1.76% up from September's 1.71% and still virtually unchanged from August's 1.75%. Inflation has been in a narrow range throughout 2019. 1.79% in May, 1.81% in July, 1.65% in June, with a high of 2.00% in April. Inflation peaked at 2.95% in July 2018. The CPI-U index in October was 257.346 Monthly Inflation for October was 0.23%, September was 0.08%, August was -0.01%, July was 0.17%, June was virtually zero at 0.02%, May was 0.21%, April was … [Read more...]
September Inflation Virtually Unchanged
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its September Inflation report on October 10th, 2019, for the 12 months through the end of September 2019. Annual Inflation is Down Very Slightly Annual inflation in September was 1.71% virtually unchanged from August's 1.75%. Inflation has been in a narrow range throughout 2019. 1.79% in May, 1.81% in July, 1.65% in June, peaking at 2.00% in April. Inflation peaked at 2.95% in July 2018. The CPI-U index in September was 256.759 up from 256.558 in August. Monthly Inflation for September was 0.08%, August was -0.01%, July was 0.17%, June was virtually zero at 0.02%, May was 0.21%, April was 0.53%, March was 0.56%. … [Read more...]
August Inflation Report
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released their August Inflation report on September 12th 2019, for the 12 months through August 2019. Annual Inflation is Down Slightly Annual inflation in August was 1.75% very similar to the 1.79% in May and the 1.81% in July. But still above the 1.65% in June, and below the 2.00% in April. Inflation peaked at 2.95% in July 2018. CPI Index in August was 256.558. July was 256.571, June was 256.143, May was 256.092. April's was 255.548 and March was 254.202. Monthly Inflation for August was disinflationary -0.01%, July was 0.17%, June was virtually zero at 0.02%, May was 0.21%, April was 0.53%, March was 0.56%. Next release October … [Read more...]
