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The Truth About Why Gold Is Surging

For thousands of years, gold (and to a lesser extent silver) have been mediums of exchange and methods of preserving wealth over time. Throughout 2024 and 2025, gold prices have been surging, driven by a combination of central bank buying, shifts away from U.S. dollar dominance, and a fear of financial exclusion, i.e., “debanking”. Let's examine why gold is surging, the evolving narrative surrounding gold, Central Banks, and cryptocurrencies. Record-Breaking Price Momentum According to … [Read More...]

April Inflation Down Slightly

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released its April 2025 Inflation report on May 13th, 2025. The report showed that Annual Inflation was down from 2.4% in March to to 2.3% in April.

Calculated to two digits, it was 2.39% in March and 2.31% in April. Although this month’s numbers look good, there is a distinct possibility that low inflation won’t last. (See this month’s MIP).

April’s Inflation Prediction:

At 2.31%, April inflation numbers came in between last month’s “likely low” and “extreme low” projections.

FED Holds Steady at May Meeting

On May 7, 2025, the Federal Open Market Committee held the FED funds target rate at 4.25% to 4.50%, a level unchanged since December 2024. In his statement, Chairman Jerome Powell said that, while economic growth remains solid, uncertainty has risen markedly amid evolving trade policies and global supply-chain strains saying, “If the large increases in tariffs that have been announced are sustained, they’re likely to generate a rise in inflation, a slowdown in economic growth and an increase in unemployment.” Chair Jerome Powell underscored at the post-meeting press conference that the current policy stance is “in a good place” but that the Fed will “await further clarity” before altering rates.

How To Recalculate Retirement for Today’s Economy

Today’s economy looks different than when many pre-retirees first built their plans. How you plan to take money in retirement should reflect today’s reality. The old “4% rule” (withdraw 4% of your portfolio in year 1, then adjust for inflation each year) was a useful rule-of-thumb, but it has limitations. By systematically updating each piece of your plan including: goals, budget, savings, investments, withdrawals, and benefits, you can build confidence that you’ll weather today’s economy and enjoy a secure retirement.

March Inflation Down Significantly, But Will it Last?

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released its March 2025 Inflation report on April 10th, 2025. The report showed that Annual Inflation was down from 2.8% in February to 2.4% in March.

Calculated to two digits, it was 2.82% in February and 2.39% in March. Although this month’s numbers look very good there is a surprise hidden in the monthly numbers. (See this month’s MIP).
The BLS Commissioner reported:
“The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) decreased 0.1 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in March, after rising 0.2 percent in February, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today.
Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.4 percent before seasonal adjustment. The index for energy fell 2.4 percent in March, as a 6.3-percent decline in the index for gasoline more than offset increases in the indexes for electricity and natural gas. The food index, in contrast, rose 0.4 percent in March as the food at home index increased 0.5 percent and the food away from home index rose 0.4 percent over the month.”

BLS: February 2025- Inflation Down

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released its February 2025 Inflation report on Wednesday, March 12th, 2025. The report showed that Annual Inflation was down from 3.0% in January to 2.8% in February. Annual Inflation fell from 3.00% in January to 2.82% in February. The CPI Index rose from 317.671 to 319.082. Monthly Inflation for February 2025 was 0.44% down from February 2024’s 0.62%. The Next release is April 10th 2025.

Without looking at inflation-adjusted prices it is difficult to see where gasoline prices actually stand. Back in 1918 gasoline was $0.25 a gallon and by 1932 prices had fallen to 18 cents a gallon! But as we all know over the last 100 years the purchasing power of the dollar has fallen drastically so in order to get the true picture we can’t just say that the lowest price of gas was 18 cents per gallon, we need to adjust the price for inflation. When adjusting for inflation there are two prices… the first is called the “nominal price” and that is the actual price you would have paid for gas at the pump. The key price though is the inflation-adjusted price which calculates what the price would have been if we were spending current dollars on a specific date. In this case, we are basing our calculations on the value of a dollar in January 2020.

Inflation Adjusted Real Estate Prices- Lets take a look at the idea that housing prices always go up. Of course, each neighborhood is different, so some neighborhoods might be going down while a few miles away housing prices are skyrocketing but by looking at the nationwide average we can get a better picture of the overall trend. The St. Louis Federal Reserve publishes the following chart that shows the S&P/Case Shiller National Home Price Index and by adjusting those prices for inflation we can get a better picture of how real estate prices really act. Is a home a good investment or not?

CPI Index

Today’s Featured Post

The Truth About Why Gold Is Surging

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April Inflation Down Slightly

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BLS: February 2025- Inflation Down

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