Today’s Featured Post
Inflation Adjusted Gasoline and Oil Prices
We've updated two of our most in demand pages Inflation Adjusted Historical Crude Oil Prices and Inflation Adjusted Gasoline Prices. Historical Crude Oil Prices Crude oil prices have experienced dramatic booms and busts over the past century, reflecting wars, economic cycles, OPEC policy changes, technological advances, and shifts in global demand. The table below provides historical crude oil prices by year, along with inflation-adjusted oil prices, allowing you to compare the real cost of … [Read More...]
August Inflation Report
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released its inflation report for August on September 11th. August Inflation Summary: The BLS reported Annual Inflation for August was unchanged from July’s 3.4%. But when calculated to 2 digits, we get a slight increase from 3.36% to 3.40%. The CPI Index fell from a peak of 335.123 in May […]
July 2026 Inflation Down
The BLS reported Annual Inflation was down from June’s 3.5% to July’s 3.4%. But when calculated to 2 digits, we get a slightly bigger drop from 3.53% to 3.36%.
The CPI Index fell from 335.123 in May to 333.952 in June, to 333.918 in July.
Monthly Inflation for July 2026 was virtually zero at -0.01% July 2025 was 0.15%.
Core Inflation, Trimmed Mean and Personal Consumption Expenditures
Core inflation measures the underlying trend in consumer prices by removing the effects of short-term price swings. Learn how the CPI, PCE Price Index, and Trimmed Mean PCE differ, and why economists and the Federal Reserve rely on these measures to assess persistent inflation.
June Inflation Down Sharply
The BLS reported Annual Inflation was down a seasonally adjusted -0.4% from May’s 4.2% to June’s 3.5%, this was the largest seasonally adjusted monthly decline since the COVID shutdown in April 2020.
Prior to April 2020, the next comparable drop was December 2008, in the depths of the financial crisis, when collapsing oil prices dragged the seasonally-adjusted CPI-U down sharply. The BLS’s April 2020 release referred to that drop as “the largest monthly decline since December 2008”. Fortunately, the current decline is more of a normalization after a massive war-induced spike than a collapse of demand like the prior two events.
Not All Inflation is Caused by an Expanding Money Supply
AI is creating inflation, not reducing it, because the infrastructure required to support it is nowhere near ready for the scale of demand.
This is why Jordi’s analogy works so well: If four billion new people appeared tomorrow, food prices would skyrocket, not because farming got worse, but because demand overwhelmed supply. AI is doing the same thing to chips, memory, and compute.
Not All Inflation is Caused by an Expanding Money Supply
AI is creating inflation, not reducing it, because the infrastructure required to support it is nowhere near ready for the scale of demand.
This is why Jordi’s analogy works so well: If four billion new people appeared tomorrow, food prices would skyrocket, not because farming got worse, but because demand overwhelmed supply. AI is doing the same thing to chips, memory, and compute.
Warsh’s First FOMC: No Dot, No Guidance, and No Dovish Pivot
Kevin Warsh’s first FOMC meeting as Fed Chair delivered a hawkish set of projections, a stripped-down statement, and a pointed refusal to submit his own rate dot, all while markets had hoping for a dovish pivot.
May Inflation Up to 4.25%
Inflation Summary:
- Annual Inflation rose from 3.18% to 4.25%
- CPI Index rose from 333.020 to 335.123
- Monthly Inflation for May 2025 was 0.21% and May 2026 was much higher at 0.63%.
- Next release July 14th 2026
May 2026: BLS April Inflation
April Inflation Summary:
The BLS reported Annual Inflation was up 0.5% from March’s 3.3%, to 3.8% in April. When we look at it to 2 decimal places, we see it rose even more, i.e., from 3.26% to 3.81% (or 0.55%).
The CPI Index rose from 330.213 to 333.020
Monthly Inflation for April 2026 was 0.85%, up from 0.31% in April 2025.
Next release June 10th, 2026
How will FED Chairman Warsh affect Rates and Inflation?
The most divided Fed vote in 34 years just closed the Powell era. Now Kevin Warsh steps in with a bold theory: AI is deflationary, rates should fall, and the Fed needs a new relationship with Treasury. But with inflation at 3.3% and oil above $120, the Greenspan playbook may be harder to run this time around.