The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI report released on April 10th, showed Annual Inflation was up from 3.2% in February to 3.5% in March. (but since we calculate it to two digits, it was actually 3.15% in February and 3.48% in March.) Monthly inflation was 0.62% in February and 0.65% in March. Typically inflation is highest in the first quarter of the year, so these numbers are a bit high but not that unusual. In March 2023 monthly inflation was 0.33%, so annual inflation jumped in 2024. Mr. Market didn't like the news because it drastically reduced the chances of a rate cut anytime soon. So, stocks fell on the release. The NYSE opened at 18,171.20 and that was the high for the … [Read more...]
February 2024 Inflation Up Slightly
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI report released on March 12th, Annual Inflation was up from 3.1% in January 3.2% in December. (but since we calculate it to two digits, it was actually 3.09% in January and 3.15% in February.) Monthly inflation was 0.54% in January and 0.62% in February. Typically inflation is highest in the first quarter of the year, so these numbers are not that unusual. In January 2023 monthly inflation was 0.80%, so annual inflation was lower in 2024 but monthly inflation was "only" 0.56% in February 2023 so annual inflation increased in 2024. The BLS's Seasonally Adjusted Monthly rate for January was 0.3%, and 0.4% in February. As you can see … [Read more...]
December Inflation Increases to 3.35%
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI report released on January 11th, Annual Inflation was up to 3.4% in December from 3.1% in November. (but since we calculate it to two digits, it was actually 3.35%.) Monthly inflation was -0.04% in October, -0.20% in November, and -0.10% in December, But inflation is almost always low to negative in the fourth quarter of the year, so these numbers are not unusual. The BLS's Seasonally adjusted monthly rate for December was actually a positive 0.30% indicating that even though unadjusted was negative, it was not as negative as usual (making the adjusted numbers higher). The stock market was expecting another decline in inflation like … [Read more...]
October 2023 Inflation Shrinks
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI report released on November 14th, Annual Inflation was down to 3.2% in October. (but since we calculate it to two digits, it was actually down to 3.24%.) Monthly inflation was 0.44% in August, 0.25% in September, and -0.04% in October. So it certainly looks like inflation is falling. The stock market took this as a "positive surprise" and went on to rally. We had been projecting this decrease due to numerical anomalies for several months. Typically the 4th quarter has low or negative monthly numbers but October 2022 was very high thus the "surprise" as the new numbers were normal (i.e. much lower). Unfortunately, December holds the … [Read more...]
August 2023 Inflation Up Sharply
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI report released on September 13th, Annual Inflation increased from 3.2% in July to 3.7% in August. (but more precisely, it was from 3.18% to 3.67%.) Monthly inflation went from 0.19% in July to 0.44% in August. August 2023 Inflation Summary: Annual Inflation rose from 3.18% to 3.67% CPI Index rose from 305.691 to 307.026 Monthly Inflation for August was 0.44%, July was 0.19% and June was 0.32%. Next release October … [Read more...]
July Annual Inflation- Up Slightly
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI report released on August 10th, Annual Inflation increased from 3% in June to 3.2% in July. (but more precisely, it was from 2.97% to 3.18%.) Monthly inflation was 0.25% for May 2023, 0.32% in June, and 0.19% in July. July 2023 Inflation Summary: Annual Inflation rose from 2.97% to 3.18% CPI Index rose from 305.109 to 305.691 Monthly Inflation for July was 0.19%, down from 0.32% in June Next release is September … [Read more...]
June 2023- Inflation Falls to 3%
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI report released on June 13th, Annual Inflation declined from 4.0% in May to 3% in June. (but more precisely, it was from 4.05% to 2.97%.) Monthly inflation was 0.25% for May 2023, and 0.32% in June. June 2023 Inflation Summary: Annual Inflation fell from 4.05% to 2.97% CPI Index rose from 304.127 to 305.109 Monthly Inflation for June was 0.32% Next release August 10th 2023 Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2022 7.48% 7.87% 8.54% 8.26% 8.58% 9.06% 8.52% 8.26% 8.20% 7.75% 7.11% 6.45% 2023 6.41% 6.04% 4.98% 4.93% 4.05% 2.97% What … [Read more...]
Annual Inflation Virtually Unchanged in April
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI report released on May 10th, Annual Inflation declined by 0.1%... but according to our calculations, it was even less than that. The BLS reported a decline from 5% to 4.9%, but when carried to two decimals, it was virtually a rounding error difference. Monthly inflation was 0.51% for April 2023, compared to 0.56% in April 2022. April 2023 Inflation Summary: Annual Inflation fell from 4.98% to 4.93% CPI Index rose from 301.836 to 303.363 Monthly Inflation for April was 0.51% Next release June … [Read more...]
September 2022 Inflation Virtually Unchanged
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that for September 2022, Annual Inflation fell from 8.26% to 8.20% Inflation Summary: Annual Inflation fell from 8.26% to 8.20% CPI Index rose from 296.171 to 296.808 Monthly Inflation for September was 0.22% Seasonally Adjusted Monthly Inflation was 0.4% Next release November 10th September Annual Inflation was 8.20%. Jan. 2021 -- 1.40% | Jan. 2022 -- 7.48% | Feb. 2022 -- 7.87% | March 8.54% | Apr. 2022 --8.26% May 2022 -- 8.58% | June 2022 -- 9.06% | July 2022 -- 8.56%% | August 2022 -- 8.26% | September -- 8.20% BLS Inflation Report: The BLS Commissioner reported, "The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) … [Read more...]
April Inflation Down, But…
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that in April 2022, Inflation fell to 8.3% Inflation Summary: Annual Inflation Declined from 8.54% in March to 8.26% in April CPI Index rose from 287.504 to 289.109 Monthly Inflation for April was 0.56%, down from 1.34% in March The next release is on June 10th April 2022 Annual Inflation was 8.26%. Jan. 2021 -- 1.40% ** Jan. 2022 -- 7.48% ** Feb. 2022 -- 7.87% ** March 8.54% Gasoline prices were artificially lower due to a massive release from the Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR), which temporarily pushed inflation down in April. The International Energy Agency was not happy that the Biden administration didn't warn them that it … [Read more...]