The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released its May 2025 Inflation report on June 11th, 2025. The report showed that Annual Inflation was up from 2.3% in April to 2.4% in May. Calculated to two digits, it was really 2.31% in April, and 2.35% in May (not even 1/10th% up). And still below the 2.39% in March. Economists were predicting higher inflation, so the slight increase was basically a non-event. Economists were predicting higher inflation, so the slight increase was basically a non-event. May's Inflation Prediction: At 2.35%, May inflation numbers came in at last month's "extreme low" projection, indicating that inflation could have been worse. … [Read more...]
April Inflation Down Slightly
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released its April 2025 Inflation report on May 13th, 2025. The report showed that Annual Inflation was down from 2.4% in March to to 2.3% in April. Calculated to two digits, it was 2.39% in March and 2.31% in April. Although this month's numbers look good, there is a distinct possibility that low inflation won't last. (See this month's MIP). April's Inflation Prediction: At 2.31%, April inflation numbers came in between last month's "likely low" and "extreme low" projections. … [Read more...]
FED Holds Steady at May Meeting
On May 7, 2025, the Federal Open Market Committee held the FED funds target rate at 4.25% to 4.50%, a level unchanged since December 2024. In his statement, Chairman Jerome Powell said that, while economic growth remains solid, uncertainty has risen markedly amid evolving trade policies and global supply-chain strains saying, “If the large increases in tariffs that have been announced are sustained, they’re likely to generate a rise in inflation, a slowdown in economic growth and an increase in unemployment.” Chair Jerome Powell underscored at the post-meeting press conference that the current policy stance is “in a good place” but that the Fed will “await further clarity” before altering … [Read more...]
March Inflation Down Significantly, But Will it Last?
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released its March 2025 Inflation report on April 10th, 2025. The report showed that Annual Inflation was down from 2.8% in February to 2.4% in March. Calculated to two digits, it was 2.82% in February and 2.39% in March. Although this month's numbers look very good there is a surprise hidden in the monthly numbers. (See this month's MIP). Inflation Prediction: This is the second month in a row that actual inflation came in slightly below our "extreme low" projection. We had projected an "extreme low" of 2.42% for March, but it came in at 2.39%. Of course, had we been rounding to one digit as the BLS does, it would have been right on the nose of … [Read more...]
BLS: February 2025- Inflation Down
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released its February 2025 Inflation report on Wednesday, March 12th, 2025. The report showed that Annual Inflation was down from 3.0% in January to 2.8% in February. Calculated to two digits, it was 3.00% in January, and 2.82% in February. On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, monthly inflation was 0.65% in January 2025, and 0.44% in February. This was down from 0.62% in February 2024. Inflation Prediction: As you can see from our MIP projection from last month, February's Annual inflation at 2.82% is just below our predicted Extreme Low of 2.88%. … [Read more...]
Would DOGE Dividend Checks Stoke Inflation?
With all the potential savings DOGE is uncovering some people are suggesting that some of those saving be rebated to taxpayers. Others are saying that doing that would be inflationary in the same way that Biden's stimulus checks were. In this video, Bob Murphy, Senior Fellow of the Mises Institute looks at the implications of this possible rebate. https://youtu.be/NltFVYom1lc?si=knQzinKc45MuuWv4&t=101 Rothbard's Making Economic Sense Bob's Understanding Money Mechanics … [Read more...]
BLS January 2025 Inflation Report
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released its January 2025 Inflation report on Wednesday February 12th 2025, showing Annual Inflation was up from 2.9% in December to 3.0% in January. This looks like a 0.1% increase. (But since we calculate it to two digits, it was 2.89% in December and 3.00% in January, which means the actual increase was 0.11%.) On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, monthly inflation was 0.04% in December and a whopping 0.65% in January 2025 this was up from 0.54% in January 2024. Inflation Prediction: As you can see from our MIP projection from last month, January's Annual inflation at 3.00% is just above our predicted Extreme High. … [Read more...]
BLS releases its December 2024 Inflation report
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released its December 2024 Inflation report on Wednesday January 15th 2025, showing Annual Inflation was up from 2.7% in November to 2.9% in December. This looks like a 0.2% increase. (But since we calculate it to two digits, it was 2.75% in November and 2.89% in December, which means the actual increase was 0.14%.) On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, monthly inflation was 0.04% in December but annual inflation rose because December 2023 was a negative -0.10%. Inflation Prediction: As you can see from our MIP projection from last month, December's Annual inflation at 2.89% is just a hair below our predicted Extreme High of 2.90%. … [Read more...]
November 2024 Inflation Up Slightly
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released its November Inflation report on Wednesday December 11th showing Annual Inflation was up from 2.6% in October to 2.7% in November. (But since we calculate it to two digits, it was actually 2.60% in October and 2.75% in November but for some reason they rounded down rather than rounding up.) On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, monthly inflation was -0.05% in November but annual inflation rose because November 2023 was a negative -0.20%. Inflation Prediction: For a change, the "experts" were right this month with their prediction of 2.7% Inflation for November maybe that is because they agreed with our Mip "Most Likely" prediction for a … [Read more...]
September Inflation Falls
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released its September Inflation report on Wednesday October 10th showing Annual Inflation was down from 2.5% in August to 2.4% in September. (But since we calculate it to two digits, it was actually 2.53% in August and 2.44% in September.) On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, monthly inflation in August was 0.08% and it increased to 0.16% in September but that was still lower than last September's 0.25% so the annual inflation rate fell. Gold Prices: As you can see on the above hourly chart, Gold peaked just over $2680, late last month, shortly after we published the chart below saying that, "On an inflation-adjusted basis gold is near … [Read more...]
