Although Congress has finally agreed to a Funding Bill to end the Government shut down and on Wednesday, November 12th, President Trump signed the bill, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has not yet released the inflation numbers for October, which were scheduled for release on November 13th. In order for the government to reopen, the bill needed 217 ‘yes’ votes. In the end, it was able to secure 222 ‘yes’ votes compared to the 209 ‘no’ votes. Ultimately, Six Democrat senators broke ranks with their party to advance the measure, while two Republicans sided with Democrats in an effort to keep the government shutdown in place. The BLS hasn't said when (if ever) the October numbers … [Read more...]
Delayed BLS September Inflation Data Released
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released its delayed September 2025 Inflation report on October 24th, 2025. The report showed that annual inflation rose from 2.9% in August to 3.0% in September. Calculated to two digits, it was 2.92% in August and 3.01% in September. September’s Inflation Prediction: At 3.01%, September's inflation numbers came in very close to our "most likely" projection and almost identical to January 2025. September 2025 Inflation Summary: Annual Inflation rose from 2.92% to 3.01% CPI Index rose from 323.926 to 324.800 Monthly Inflation for September was 0.25% Next release November 13th, 2025 Note: We will only be publishing an … [Read more...]
September CPI Data Delay Causes Social Security COLA Concerns
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics’ September inflation data release was scheduled to occur on Wednesday, October 15th, 2025, but at this point it has been postponed until October 24th, due to the government shutdown. Despite the shutdown, the Labor Department is recalling some employees to finalize the inflation data. Much of the information was already collected before the government closed, meaning it can still be processed and published relatively quickly. September Inflation Data Holds the Key to 2026 Social Security COLA The Labor Department’s September inflation report is critical because it is used to calculate the 2026 Social Security cost-of-living adjustment (COLA). So the … [Read more...]
August 2025 Inflation Report
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released its August 2025 Inflation report on September 11th, 2025. The report showed that Annual Inflation was up at 2.9%. Calculated to two digits, it was 2.70% in July and 2.92% in August. The market is 90% certain that the FED will lower rates on September 17th despite rising inflation. August’s Inflation Prediction: At 2.92%, August's inflation numbers came at our “likely high”. Most economists had projected 2.9% as well. Go here to view our current MIP projection. … [Read more...]
Is the FED Getting Soft on Inflation?
At the conclusion of the Jackson Hole, Wyoming, FED meeting, Chairman Powell indicated that FED policy was changing. Recent FED History The Federal Reserve Act of 1977 modified the original act that established the Federal Reserve in 1913. The new policy gave the FED a “Dual Mandate” so they would no longer be tasked with just keeping inflation low but would simultaneously try to maintain “maximum employment”. Of course, these are sort of mutually exclusive. If the FED pumps a lot of liquidity into the market, unemployment goes down, but simultaneously inflation goes up, and vice versa if the FED gets too restrictive. So, the FED tried to walk a tightrope between the two extremes and set … [Read more...]
July Inflation Report
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released its July 2025 Inflation report on August 12th, 2025. The report showed that Annual Inflation was unchanged at 2.7%. Calculated to two digits, it was 2.67% in June and 2.70% in July. So, although the BLS says it was unchanged it was actually up VERY slightly. The market responded positively with the NYSE up 226.57 points. July’s Inflation Prediction: At 2.70%, July inflation numbers came in between last month’s “likely low” and “extreme low” projections, which is about as good as we could hope for. Go here to view our current MIP projection. … [Read more...]
June Inflation Up Again
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released its June 2025 Inflation report on July 15th, 2025. The report showed that Annual Inflation was up from 2.4% in May to 2.7% in June. Calculated to two digits, it was really 2.35% in May and 2.67% in June. Economists were predicting higher inflation, of 2.6% while our MIP was projecting an "Extreme High" of 2.63%. The NYSE responded by falling about 1% on the day, on fears that this might postpone the FED's rate cuts even further. June's Inflation Prediction: At 2.67%, June's inflation numbers came in slightly above last month's "extreme high" projection. … [Read more...]
FED’s Semiannual Monetary Policy Report
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell delivered his semiannual Monetary Policy Report to Congress on June 24th and to the Senate Banking Committee on June 25th. Powell noted that U.S. real GDP expanded roughly 2.5% over the past year, supported by resilient consumer spending and a still-solid labor market. Payroll growth averaged about 124,000 jobs per month in the first five months of 2025—slower than the pace seen during the post-pandemic boom but still consistent with a gradually cooling economy. Inflation, however, remains somewhat above target. The Fed’s preferred gauge, core PCE inflation, is running near 2.6%, with overall personal consumption expenditures (PCE) around 2.3%, … [Read more...]
May 2025 Inflation Up Slightly
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released its May 2025 Inflation report on June 11th, 2025. The report showed that Annual Inflation was up from 2.3% in April to 2.4% in May. Calculated to two digits, it was really 2.31% in April, and 2.35% in May (not even 1/10th% up). And still below the 2.39% in March. Economists were predicting higher inflation, so the slight increase was basically a non-event. Economists were predicting higher inflation, so the slight increase was basically a non-event. May's Inflation Prediction: At 2.35%, May inflation numbers came in at last month's "extreme low" projection, indicating that inflation could have been worse. … [Read more...]
April Inflation Down Slightly
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released its April 2025 Inflation report on May 13th, 2025. The report showed that Annual Inflation was down from 2.4% in March to to 2.3% in April. Calculated to two digits, it was 2.39% in March and 2.31% in April. Although this month's numbers look good, there is a distinct possibility that low inflation won't last. (See this month's MIP). April's Inflation Prediction: At 2.31%, April inflation numbers came in between last month's "likely low" and "extreme low" projections. … [Read more...]