The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released its inflation report for April on May 12th. April Inflation Summary: The BLS reported Annual Inflation was up 0.5% from March's 3.3%, to 3.8% in April. When we look at it to 2 decimal places, we see it rose even more, i.e., from 3.26% to 3.81% (or 0.55%). The CPI Index rose from 330.213 to 333.020 Monthly Inflation for April 2026 was 0.85%, up from 0.31% in April 2025. Next release June 10th, 2026 Annual Inflation … [Read more...]
How will FED Chairman Warsh affect Rates and Inflation?
The Federal Reserve just made history — and not in a way anyone expected. After holding rates unchanged for a third straight meeting, the most divided Fed vote in 34 years is already signaling what a new era under incoming Chairman Kevin Warsh might look like. Jerome Powell's Final Act: An 8-4 Vote That Speaks Volumes Jerome Powell chaired what is almost certainly his last Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on April 30, 2026, and the committee did not go quietly. The Fed voted 8-4 to hold rates steady, the most fractured result since 1992. That's not just a footnote; it's a loud signal that the committee is deeply split on where rates should go next. Powell, for his part, is … [Read more...]
Massive March 2026 Inflation Spike
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released its inflation report for March on April 10th. The BLS reported the annual inflation at 3.3% for March. But when we look at it to 2 decimal places, we 3.26%. CPI Index rose sharply from 326.785 to 330.213 Monthly Inflation for March 2026 was a massive 1.05%, up from 0.47% in February and 0.22% in March 2025. Next release May 12th, 2026 Annual Inflation … [Read more...]
Inflation Down In January 2026
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released its inflation report for January 2026 on February 13th. Big News for our subscribers (at least we're excited about it): We are in the process of a massive update for the site. We've already updated the Cumulative Inflation Calculator and made the tables easier to navigate. They collapse, so it is easier to scroll past them and continue on with the article. They are also searchable, reversible, and just plain easier to read. We've consolidated some pages, so there is less jumping around, and we are adding a table of contents to the page so you don't need to scroll so much, just jump to the right section. We also got rid of a bunch of ads, so … [Read more...]
December Inflation Down Slightly, Not Flat
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released its report for December on January 13th. December's inflation was down slightly when calculated to two decimal places despite the BLS reporting that November and December were both 2.7%. The December 2025 inflation report (released in January) shows that U.S. consumer prices continued to moderate at the end of the year, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) actually falling on a monthly basis. Key drivers included lower commodity prices, with gasoline down on an annual basis. However, services were still the biggest gainers. December Inflation Summary: The BLS reported Annual Inflation UNCHANGED at 2.7% but when we look at it to 2 decimal … [Read more...]
December 2025 Inflation Report for November
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released its belated November report on December 18th. December 2025 inflation data reveals moderating inflation. But the FED is easing, which could result in inflationary pressures later in 2026. Calculated to two digits, inflation was 2.74% in November, down from 3.01% in September. There was no October number due to the government shutdown. The December 2025 inflation report shows that U.S. consumer prices continued to moderate at the end of the year, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising modestly compared to the previous year. After months of mixed data and reporting gaps tied to the federal government shutdown, inflation trends appear … [Read more...]
Delayed BLS September Inflation Data Released
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released its delayed September 2025 Inflation report on October 24th, 2025. The report showed that annual inflation rose from 2.9% in August to 3.0% in September. Calculated to two digits, it was 2.92% in August and 3.01% in September. September’s Inflation Prediction: At 3.01%, September's inflation numbers came in very close to our "most likely" projection and almost identical to January 2025. September 2025 Inflation Summary: Annual Inflation rose from 2.92% to 3.01% CPI Index rose from 323.926 to 324.800 Monthly Inflation for September was 0.25% Next release November 13th, 2025 Note: We will only be publishing an … [Read more...]
AI Is Deflationary But Its Energy Demand Could Fuel Inflation
Artificial intelligence is being heralded as one of the most transformative technologies of all time, with the potential to radically improve productivity, reduce costs, and drive economic growth. But as the AI revolution unfolds, a paradox is emerging: AI has deep deflationary potential, yet its explosive demand for electricity and infrastructure introduces inflationary pressures. Understanding these contradictory forces is essential to understanding how Artificial Intelligence could shape macroeconomic trends in the coming decade. The Deflationary Power of AI AI’s primary deflationary force lies in its ability to automate tasks across every sector of the economy — from legal document … [Read more...]
June Inflation Up Again
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released its June 2025 Inflation report on July 15th, 2025. The report showed that Annual Inflation was up from 2.4% in May to 2.7% in June. Calculated to two digits, it was really 2.35% in May and 2.67% in June. Economists were predicting higher inflation, of 2.6% while our MIP was projecting an "Extreme High" of 2.63%. The NYSE responded by falling about 1% on the day, on fears that this might postpone the FED's rate cuts even further. June's Inflation Prediction: At 2.67%, June's inflation numbers came in slightly above last month's "extreme high" projection. … [Read more...]
FED’s Semiannual Monetary Policy Report
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell delivered his semiannual Monetary Policy Report to Congress on June 24th and to the Senate Banking Committee on June 25th. Powell noted that U.S. real GDP expanded roughly 2.5% over the past year, supported by resilient consumer spending and a still-solid labor market. Payroll growth averaged about 124,000 jobs per month in the first five months of 2025—slower than the pace seen during the post-pandemic boom but still consistent with a gradually cooling economy. Inflation, however, remains somewhat above target. The Fed’s preferred gauge, core PCE inflation, is running near 2.6%, with overall personal consumption expenditures (PCE) around 2.3%, … [Read more...]