In Part 1 of this series on Real Estate and Inflation, we discussed how monetary inflation creates price inflation which affects materials costs, creates a shift into rentals and a surge in foreclosures. But on the flip side, being a commodity itself, home ownership can provide protection against inflation and through the use of a mortgage allows you to pay off an appreciating asset with depreciating dollars. This time we will look at a few more effects of Inflation on the average home buyer. In a period of high inflation, a dollar's value decreases rapidly. On average, a 2 percent inflation rate means that what costs $1 in 2017 would cost roughly $1.02 in 2018. Although inflation is … [Read more...]
Ways Inflation Affects the Real Estate Market
Inflation from January 2007 through December 2016 was extremely low, averaging only 1.77% per year in the U.S. and 2009 was actually negative (i.e. falling prices = deflation). Although 2017 has seen a bit more inflation it is still low by historical standards. In times of low inflation, inflation is a vague term that economists throw around when they’re trying to make one point or another. However, when inflation begins rising and hitting your pocket, the reality begins to set in. And it can have a quite noticeable effect on, not only the goods you buy at your favorite big box store, but even on real estate. Let’s take a quick look at some ways rising (or sinking) prices get their tentacles … [Read more...]
The Quantity Theory of Money
We have written quite extensively on the cause of inflation in articles like: How does the Money Supply affect our Inflation Rate? in What is Inflation? and Inflation Cause and Effects. One of the keys to understanding inflation is the Money Multiplier. Because of the "Fractional Reserve system banks are only required to keep a small fraction of the money on deposit as "reserves" against potential withdrawals the bank can loan out the majority of the money on deposit to earn interest. This results in a multiplication effect increasing the money supply by vast multiples. This "leverage" can work in either direction. In April 2010, I wrote an article explaining how this can result in … [Read more...]
Inflation Up, NYSE New High
Current Inflation Situation On October 13th the Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Consumer Price Index inflation information for September. The CPI-U index was 246.819 up from 245.519 in August. This resulted in an annual inflation rate for the 12 months through September 2017 of 2.23% up from 1.94% in August, 1.63% in June and 1.73% in July. Monthly inflation was a whopping 0.53% for September primarily due to a 12% increase in gasoline prices due to refinery shutdowns in response to hurricanes. See our Annual Inflation Chart for more info. NYSE Makes New High in Inflation Adjusted Terms! To get a true picture of the state of the market it helps to look at the … [Read more...]
Monthly Inflation Spikes in August
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Annual Inflation Rate data for the year ending in August on September 14th 2017. Annual inflation was 1.94% in August up from 1.73% in July. CPI-U 245.519 Monthly Inflation for August 0.30% Next release October 18th According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) - "Increases in the indexes for gasoline and shelter accounted for nearly all of the seasonally adjusted increase in the all items index. The energy index rose 2.8 percent in August as the gasoline index increased 6.3 percent. The shelter index rose 0.5 percent in August with the rent index up 0.4 percent. The food index rose slightly in August, with the … [Read more...]
How the Inflation Cycle Influences the Job Market
Inflation is generally a gradual process, so most people don't put much thought into inflation, since it happens so slowly. But certain things can cause inflation to occur at a faster rate than it normally would and at times countries even experience hyperinflation like Zimbabwe did several years ago and Venezuela is now. But even when it is gradual, creeping inflation can have a major effect on just about everyone. Generally, when we think of inflation we think of rising food prices. But although you might never have really thought about it, inflation can have a huge impact on everything from food to cars to the job market i.e. both products and services. Here are a few ways that inflation … [Read more...]
OECD International Inflation Rates
On Friday August 11th the OECD published the Annual Inflation Rates rates of its member countries plus several other countries as well. Noticeably absent is Argentina. The OECD included the following footnote: Data for Argentina are currently not available due to the state of emergency in the national statistical system declared by the government of Argentina on 07 January 2016. As a consequence, Argentina is not included in the calculation of the G-20 aggregate. The policy regarding the inclusion of Argentina will be reconsidered in the future depending on further developments. In November 2015, Mauricio Macri was elected in Argentina under the platform of reforming the government of … [Read more...]
July CPI Down But Inflation Up
The Bureau of Labor Statistics Released the Inflation Data for the Year ending in July on August 11th. Annual inflation was 1.73% in July - Up from 1.63% in June, but down from 1.87% in May, 2.20% in April, 2.38% in March, 2.74% in February, and 2.50% in January. CPI 244.786 in July down from CPI 244.955 in June Monthly Inflation for July -0.07%, June 0.09%, May 0.09%, April was 0.30%, March was 0.08%, February was 0.31% and 0.58% in January. Next release September 14th The reason the CPI went down but inflation went up is because July 2016 monthly inflation was -0.16% and this July was less negative. So CPI goes down for the month but not as much as last year so Annual … [Read more...]
Inflation Down in May But Real Estate Booming (or is it?)
Annual inflation for the 12 months ending in May 2017 was 1.87%. Inflation has steadily moved lower month by month from its peak of 2.74% in February. First falling to 2.38% in March, then down to 2.20% in April, and finally 1.87% in May. Although Inflation has fallen it is still slightly above its 12 month moving average (Red Line) indicating that the short-term trend is still up, although the gap is closing, a cross below the moving average would indicate that the short term trend has switched to "down". Since 2008, there has been a battle between inflation and deflation with the FED fighting against deflation. In March, the FED has switched sides and is raising interest rates. … [Read more...]
Effects of Inflation on Businesses
When we think of inflation we usually think of how it affects us as consumers. But the effects of inflation are wide ranging, including not only individuals but also businesses and even countries. Consumers and businesses alike have to deal with the impact of inflation, both good and bad. Here are some ways in which inflation affects businesses: 1. Consumer Purchasing This is the most obvious impact to businesses. Rapidly rising prices will cause consumers to (as Samuel Goldwyn famously said) "stay away in droves". There are ways for businesses to plan for inflation to reduce the chances of revenue loss. Gradually increasing prices will prevent a sudden price hike, and if your … [Read more...]
