The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released their monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI-U) and Inflation report for the year ending in August on September 16th. The CPI index fell slightly from 238.654 in July to 238.316 in August resulting in monthly deflation but Annual Inflation for the year ending in August was 0.20% up from 0.17% for the year ending in July. That means that something that cost $100 a year ago would cost $100.20 today. That is compared to the typical inflation of around 3% which would mean that something that cost $100 last year would cost $103 this year. The CPI-U index a year ago was 237.852 and is currently 238.316. On an Annual basis Energy fell 15.0% over the … [Read more...]
July Inflation Numbers Minimal
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released their monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI-U) and Inflation report for the year ending in July on August 19th . Annual Inflation came in at 0.17%. That means that something that cost $100 a year ago would cost $100.17 today. That is compared to the typical inflation of around 3% which would mean that something that cost $100 last year would cost $103 this year. The BLS rounds this to .2% which of course is so small that almost any one of the deflationary months last year would cancel out all the inflation we've seen over the previous 12 months. The CPI-U index a year ago was 238.250 and is currently 238.654. We have seen significant … [Read more...]
BLS Releases May Inflation Stats
May's monthly prices increase 0.51% but the annual inflation rate was still -0.04%. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released their monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI-U) and Inflation report for the year ending in May on June 18th. This resulted in the 5th deflationary month in a row. We have seen a steady decline in inflation rates over the last year. May 2014 started with an annual inflation rate of 2.13%. June saw annual inflation fall to 2.07% then July declined to 1.99%, August was 1.70%, then September and October were both 1.66%, November was 1.32%, and December was 0.76%. When January rolled around it was … [Read more...]
Deflation Almost Zero
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the inflation statistics for the month of February on March 24th. According to the official numbers there was neither inflation nor deflation for the 12 months ending in February. Technically that wasn't exactly correct. The Consumer Price index (CPI-U) in February 2014 was 234.781 and in February 2015 it was 234.722. So actually there was -0.03% inflation and as we all know negative inflation on an annual basis is called "the big D" or Deflation. However, since the BLS rounds all their results to one decimal place they have rounded it to zero, that is prices are essentially the same as one year ago. Now before you send me nasty-grams saying … [Read more...]
Deflation Days are Here Again
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the Consumer Price Index (CPI-U) data today for the month of January. The verdict was that inflation had fallen rapidly from 0.76% in December to a slightly deflationary -0.09% for the 12 months ending in January. This is the first time since 2009 that we have seen Annual deflation although there were several times during 2014 that we saw monthly deflation. Monthly deflation (annual disinflation) means that prices are slightly lower than they were last month but still higher than a year ago, which typically happens a few times every year (generally in the 4th quarter), but this year prices began falling during the summer, indicating … [Read more...]
Updated Inflation Adjusted Gasoline Price Chart
With the recent drop in gasoline prices perhaps you have begun to wonder exactly how close to historical lows are we? If so we have updated our famous Inflation Adjusted Gasoline Price Chart. It shows where we stand on an inflation adjusted basis. Lowest Inflation Adjusted Price of Gasoline was $1.46 in 1998 Back in 1918 gasoline was $0.25 a gallon and by 1932 prices had fallen to 18 cents a gallon! But as we all know over the last 100 years the purchasing power of the dollar has fallen drastically so in order to get the true picture we can’t just say that the lowest price of gas was 18 cents per gallon, we need to adjust the price for inflation. When adjusting for inflation there are … [Read more...]
Annual Inflation Below 1%
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released their monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on Friday January 16th for December and for the first time since 2009 reported annual inflation below 1% (although we calculated October 2013 at 0.96%). The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December was 234.812 down from November’s 236.151 which was also down from 237.433 for October. This resulted in a monthly decrease in prices of -0.57% and an annual inflation rate of 0.76%. Overall energy on a “seasonally adjusted” basis was down -4.7% for the month and -10.6% on an unadjusted basis for the entire year. Fuel oil fell -7.8% for the month (adjusted) and a whopping -19.1% annually. Gasoline was … [Read more...]
Inflation Flat for October
The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Inflation rate for the month of October today. Annual inflation remained steady at 1.66% even though prices fell from the month previous (i.e. monthly inflation was -0.25%). However, since monthly inflation was -0.26% in October 2013 annual inflation rates remained virtually identical as October 2013 was replaced by October 2014 in the calculations. The FED has stated that it's goal is to maintain inflation at a steady 2%. But as we can see from the chart they have rarely achieved that goal. If the goal was to remain below 2% we could say they have done very well since 2012 however during that time-period the FED has been fearing deflation … [Read more...]
Inflation or Deflation? – Yes
Over the years we've published a variety of articles on the inherent "tug-of-war" between inflationary and deflationary forces in the world including How can we have Inflation and Deflation at the same time? and Battle of the 'Flations both from back in 2008 and Deflation or Inflation - Which is it? in 2009 and Which is Stronger- Inflation or Deflation? in 2010. Another recurring theme has been Velocity of Money and Money Multiplier- Why Deflation is Possible and today John Mauldin will take a stab at each these critical topics once again. Understanding their interrelationships will greatly help you understand the monetary forces at work.~ Tim McMahon, editor The Flat Debt Society By … [Read more...]
Where is Gold Headed?
To get the true measure of anything it is important that you use a standardized measurement. This of course is why a "foot" or "inch" eventually became exactly a certain length and didn't vary based on each particular person doing the measuring. And more recently it is why Celsius measurement relates to the exact freezing and boiling points of water at an exact atmospheric pressure. It is also why, when we measure a commodity like Gold or the stock market we need to use a scale that doesn't change. Unfortunately, the typical measurement i.e. the U.S. dollar is always changing in value. That is the dollar depreciates due to inflation thus changing the measurement on a daily (or at least … [Read more...]
