According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI report released on August 10th, Annual Inflation increased from 3% in June to 3.2% in July. (but more precisely, it was from 2.97% to 3.18%.) Monthly inflation was 0.25% for May 2023, 0.32% in June, and 0.19% in July. July 2023 Inflation Summary: Annual Inflation rose from 2.97% to 3.18% CPI Index rose from 305.109 to 305.691 Monthly Inflation for July was 0.19%, down from 0.32% in June Next release is September … [Read more...]
Do Private Corporations Cause Inflation?
We often hear the cry that those greedy corporations are raising prices and causing inflation. If they would only bite the bullet and stop raising prices all would be well. They even have a name for it "greedflation". As recently as April 27th 2023, Bloomberg published an article entitled ECB (The European Central Bank) Wakes Up to Greedflation as Key Culprit in Price Struggle. The article tells us that French politician and President of the European Central Bank Christine Lagarde blames "corporate margins" for inflation. Today's article looks at the problems with that view. ~Tim McMahon, editor Private Corporations Don't Cause Price Inflation. Governments Do. By Daniel … [Read more...]
No Surprise… FED Raised Rate by 1/4%
The market was predicting a 1/4% raise in the FED Funds rate with 99% certainty and that is exactly what they got. We were wondering if because of last month's drop in annual inflation (due primarily to a mathematical anomaly) the FED would not raise rates this month. But apparently their previous pause was sufficient under the circumstances. By applying the slight rate increase at this point, it should present the impression to the general public that they are on top of things, when the 1/3% rebound in inflation that we expect for July shows up. FED Chairman, Jerome Powell has left the door open for further increases (or not) with his comment, “Looking ahead, we will continue to take … [Read more...]
How Inflation Impacts Merchants
Just like the old joke, "How do you eat an elephant? ...one bite at a time", inflation is constantly "eating" away at your purchasing power. Some years your purchasing power might decline by 1%, and other years, it might decline by 5% or even 10%. As we can see from the chart above, back in 1980, purchasing power declined by an average of 13.55% over the whole year. But from April 1979 to April 1980, prices increased (and thus purchasing power declined) by a whopping 14.76%. And that was on top of 10.09% from April 1978 to April 1979. So, in just two years, from April 1978 to April 1980, prices increased significantly. How much? Well, due to compounding, you can't simply add 14.76% and … [Read more...]
What is the Difference between the CPI-U and the CPI-W
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a widely used economic indicator that measures changes in the prices of goods and services over time. It measures the average change overtime in the prices paid by urban consumers for a market basket of consumer goods and services. Being an index, a date was chosen to be equivalent to 100, and as the price of the goods in the "basket" increased the index increases as well. The percentage difference between the index a year prior and the current index is the inflation rate. Having a reliable index is an essential tool for policymakers, economists, and individuals alike to assess inflation and make informed decisions. However, there are different variations … [Read more...]
June 2023- Inflation Falls to 3%
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI report released on June 13th, Annual Inflation declined from 4.0% in May to 3% in June. (but more precisely, it was from 4.05% to 2.97%.) Monthly inflation was 0.25% for May 2023, and 0.32% in June. June 2023 Inflation Summary: Annual Inflation fell from 4.05% to 2.97% CPI Index rose from 304.127 to 305.109 Monthly Inflation for June was 0.32% Next release August 10th 2023 Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2022 7.48% 7.87% 8.54% 8.26% 8.58% 9.06% 8.52% 8.26% 8.20% 7.75% 7.11% 6.45% 2023 6.41% 6.04% 4.98% 4.93% 4.05% 2.97% What … [Read more...]
Radical Decentralization: the Key to Wealth and Freedom
By Ryan McMaken It is not uncommon to encounter political theorists and pundits who insist that political centralization is a boon to economic growth. In both cases, it is claimed the presence of a unifying central regime—whether in Brussels or in Washington, DC, for example—is essential in ensuring the efficient and free flow of goods throughout a large jurisdiction. This, we are told, will greatly accelerate economic growth. In many ways, the model is the United States, inside of which there are virtually no barriers to trade or migration at all between member states. In the EU, barriers have been falling in recent decades. The historical evidence, however, suggests that … [Read more...]
The Effects of Raising the Debt Ceiling
In this article, Professor Daniel Lacalle examines the relationship between Federal debt and crony capitalism. ~Tim McMahon, editor. Key Facts: Congress has raised the debt ceiling 78 times since 1960 US debt to GDP is 123.4% 8% of the budget goes to pay interest Discretionary spending is around 30% of the budget Fiscal year 2023 outlays = $5.9 trillion The United States budget is unsustainable More Federal Debt Means More Taxes, Less Growth, and Weaker Real Wages By Professor Daniel Lacalle Since 1960, Congress has raised the debt ceiling 78 times, according to Bloomberg. The process of increasing the debt limit has become so regular that markets barely worry … [Read more...]
May Inflation Falls to 4%
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI report released on June 13th, Annual Inflation declined from 4.9% in April to 4.0% in May. (but according to our calculations, it was from 4.93% to 4.05%.) Monthly inflation was 0.25% for May 2023, compared to 1.10% in May 2022. May 2023 Inflation Summary: Annual Inflation fell from 4.93% to 4.05% CPI Index rose from 303.363 to 304.127 Monthly Inflation for April was 0.25% Next release July … [Read more...]
Default by Inflation
As long as I can remember, the "boogeyman" of government debt has always been default. This is not an insignificant concern. Over the years, governments HAVE defaulted on their sovereign debt. In the 1700s, corporate debt was seen as more likely to be repaid than government debt. As recently as a year ago, Russia was facing the prospect of default on Eurobonds maturing in 2023 and 2043. According to the following chart by Reuters, 34 governments have defaulted on at least some of their sovereign debt since 1989. The largest defaults were Congo in 2012 and Ukraine in 2015, but there was also Ecuador, Nicaragua, Argentina, Venezuela, Russia, and Pakistan, along with many others. But … [Read more...]
