The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released its June Inflation report on July 11th showing Annual Inflation was down from 3.3% in May to 3% in June. (But since we calculate it to two digits, it was actually 3.27% in May and 2.97% in June.) On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, monthly inflation in June was 0.03%. The Cleveland FED had been predicting that the inflation rate would come in at 3.12% so inflation was considerably lower than expectations. Markets took this as a good sign hoping for rate cuts possibly in September and rallied. The biggest beneficiaries were small cap stocks which have been beaten down by higher interest rates. The FED has been hinting that they would … [Read more...]
May Inflation Surprisingly Mild
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released its May Inflation report on June 12th showing Annual Inflation was down from 3.4% in April to 3.3% in May. (But since we calculate it to two digits, it was actually 3.36% in April and 3.27% in May.) On a Seasonally adjusted basis, monthly inflation in May was ZERO. Bloomberg is making a big deal about that, but what does it really mean? As, I've been saying, beginning in the May-June timeframe inflation typically moderates for the Summer months and then gets really low (or even negative) in the 4th quarter. And that is what is happening. Double Whammy Day The overnight markets were down expecting more inflation so when the report was released … [Read more...]
February 2024 Inflation Up Slightly
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI report released on March 12th, Annual Inflation was up from 3.1% in January 3.2% in December. (but since we calculate it to two digits, it was actually 3.09% in January and 3.15% in February.) Monthly inflation was 0.54% in January and 0.62% in February. Typically inflation is highest in the first quarter of the year, so these numbers are not that unusual. In January 2023 monthly inflation was 0.80%, so annual inflation was lower in 2024 but monthly inflation was "only" 0.56% in February 2023 so annual inflation increased in 2024. The BLS's Seasonally Adjusted Monthly rate for January was 0.3%, and 0.4% in February. As you can see … [Read more...]
January 2024 Annual Inflation Down Despite High Monthly Inflation
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI report released on February 13th, Annual Inflation was down to 3.1% in January from 3.4% in December. (but since we calculate it to two digits, it was actually 3.09% in January and 3.35% in December.) Monthly inflation was -0.10% in December and 0.54% in January. But since inflation is highest in the first quarter of the year, these numbers are not unusual. But in January 2023 monthly inflation was 0.80%, so annual inflation is lower in 2024. The BLS's Seasonally adjusted monthly rate for January was 0.30%, the same as December 2023. As you can see from our MIP projection from last month, inflation was at the high end of our range. … [Read more...]