The Fed Just Raised Rates Into an Oil-Driven Inflation Shock On Wednesday, September 16th, the Federal Reserve announced that it would raise interest rates. Read that again: the Fed just raised rates into an inflationary oil shock that was already pushing prices higher. The Federal Open Market Committee bumped its benchmark federal funds target up a quarter point, from 3.50% to 3.75% up to 3.75% to 4.00%. This is the Fed's first hike since July 2023, and every single voting member signed off on it. The 3.50% to 3.75% target range resulted in an actual rate of 3.63%. If that was all it might not be too bad, but they are projecting more pain to come. But the spread between CPI with energy … [Read more...]
Inflation Adjusted Gasoline and Oil Prices
We've updated two of our most in demand pages Inflation Adjusted Historical Crude Oil Prices and Inflation Adjusted Gasoline Prices. Historical Crude Oil Prices Crude oil prices have experienced dramatic booms and busts over the past century, reflecting wars, economic cycles, OPEC policy changes, technological advances, and shifts in global demand. The table below provides historical crude oil prices by year, along with inflation-adjusted oil prices, allowing you to compare the real cost of oil across decades. By adjusting prices using the Consumer Price Index (CPI), we can see how today’s oil prices compare with major historical spikes such as the late-1970s oil crisis and the 2008 oil … [Read more...]
August Inflation Report
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released its inflation report for August on September 11th. August Inflation Summary: The BLS reported Annual Inflation for August was unchanged from July's 3.4%. But when calculated to 2 digits, we get a slight increase from 3.36% to 3.40%. The CPI Index fell from a peak of 335.123 in May to 333.918 in July then rose to 334.980 in August. Monthly Inflation for August 2026 was 0.32% up slightly from August 2025's 0.29%. Next release: October 14th, 2026 BTC ROC Generates a BUY Signal We've updated Inflation Adjusted Gasoline Prices and Historical Crude Oil Prices Annual Inflation … [Read more...]
July 2026 Inflation Down
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released its inflation report for July on August 12th. July Inflation Summary: The BLS reported Annual Inflation was down from June's 3.5% to July's 3.4%. But when calculated to 2 digits, we get a slightly bigger drop from 3.53% to 3.36%. The CPI Index fell from 335.123 in May to 333.952 in June, to 333.918 in July. Monthly Inflation for July 2026 was virtually zero at -0.01% July 2025 was 0.15%. Next release: September 11th, 2026 Annual Inflation … [Read more...]
Core Inflation, Trimmed Mean and Personal Consumption Expenditures
In the United States, the two primary measures of consumer inflation are the Consumer Price Index (CPI), published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, produced by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). Although both track changes in the prices consumers pay for goods and services, they were designed for different purposes. As a result, they use different methodologies and weighting systems, causing them to produce somewhat different inflation readings over time. The CPI and PCE Price Index also differ in how they determine the importance, or weight, of various goods and services. The CPI is based primarily on the Consumer … [Read more...]
June Inflation Down Sharply
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released its inflation report for June on July 14th. June Inflation Summary: The BLS reported Annual Inflation was down a seasonally adjusted -0.4% from May's 4.2% to June's 3.5%, this was the largest seasonally adjusted monthly decline since the COVID shutdown in April 2020. Prior to April 2020, the next comparable drop was December 2008, in the depths of the financial crisis, when collapsing oil prices dragged the seasonally-adjusted CPI-U down sharply. The BLS's April 2020 release referred to that drop as "the largest monthly decline since December 2008". Fortunately, the current decline is more of a normalization after a massive war-induced … [Read more...]
Not All Inflation is Caused by an Expanding Money Supply
Imagine waking up tomorrow and discovering that the world suddenly has four billion more people. Food prices would explode overnight, not because farmers forgot how to farm, or because food production disappeared due to drought, but because demand would massively exceed supply. Inflation doesn't always come from speculation and money supply, sometimes it comes from... This is the analogy Jordi Visser uses to explain today’s AI‑driven inflation: The AI boom has created a sudden, massive surge in demand for a scarce resource, i.e., high‑bandwidth memory (HBM). Just as food inflation emerges when population outstrips agricultural capacity, AI inflation emerges when compute demand outstrips … [Read more...]
Warsh’s First FOMC: No Dot, No Guidance, and No Dovish Pivot
Kevin Warsh ran his first Federal Open Market Committee meeting as Fed Chair on June 16-17, and if you were expecting a victory lap for the doves, you were watching the wrong meeting. The Fed held rates steady at 3.50%-3.75%, which was never really in doubt. What mattered was everything around that decision, and on nearly every front, Warsh signaled he's not interested in playing the game the way his predecessors did. An Unusual Twist Here's the thing nobody saw coming: Warsh didn't submit a 2028 federal funds rate projection for himself. Warsh has been openly skeptical of the dot plot and forward guidance for years, saying the dot plot "is not helpful in the conduct of policy". So, as … [Read more...]
May Inflation Up to 4.25%
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released its inflation report for May on June 10th. May Inflation Summary: The BLS reported Annual Inflation was up a "seasonally-adjusted" 0.5% from April's 3.8% to May's 4.2%. That was on top of the 0.5% "seasonally-adjusted" increase from 3.3% in March to 3.8% in April. When we look at the 2-decimal-place non-adjusted numbers, we see it rose even more in April, i.e., from March's 3.26% to 3.81% (or 0.55%), and less in May (0.44%) to 4.25%. The CPI Index rose from 333.020 in April to 335.123 in May Monthly Inflation for May 2026 was 0.63%, up from 0.21% in May 2025. Monthly Inflation for April 2026 was 0.85%, up from 0.31% in April … [Read more...]
May 2026: BLS April Inflation
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released its inflation report for April on May 12th. April Inflation Summary: The BLS reported Annual Inflation was up 0.5% from March's 3.3%, to 3.8% in April. When we look at it to 2 decimal places, we see it rose even more, i.e., from 3.26% to 3.81% (or 0.55%). The CPI Index rose from 330.213 to 333.020 Monthly Inflation for April 2026 was 0.85%, up from 0.31% in April 2025. Next release June 10th, 2026 Annual Inflation … [Read more...]