Inflation Expectations and the Massive Fed Stimulus Inflation is loosely described as a general economic state of rising prices. In February 2020, the US inflation rate dipped from a high of 2.5% in January, to 2.3%. Assuming the standard of steadily increasing prices, driven largely by food, fuel, and living expenses, one can expect the inflation rate to tick higher. Forecasts for April 2020 are at 1.7%. Given that the major drivers of inflation are excess demand (demand-pull inflation), or cost-push inflation, current conditions based on Coronavirus quarantines have created a murky demand climate. Oil Prices and Inflationary Expectations All major US indices, including the Dow Jones … [Read more...]
What is the Federal Funds Rate?
By law banks are required to maintain a certain percentage of their assets in reserves at any given time. This money is held at the Federal Reserve bank and is called the “Reserve Requirement”. Generally, this money does not earn any interest. But, any money over and above this minimum can be loaned to other banks to who might not have enough reserves. The rate that banks can charge each other is called the “Federal Funds rate” or “Fed Funds Rate”. The monetary policy-making body of the Federal Reserve System, is called the “Federal Open Market Committee” or “FOMC”. The FOMC meets eight times a year to discuss the economy and decide on any changes to monetary policy. One of the major … [Read more...]
Will the $2 Trillion Covid-19 Stimulus Cause Inflation?
The current round of massive Corona Virus easing began Monday March 16th, 2020, with the FED buying $40 billion in Treasuries and then buying another $50 billion in Treasuries on Tuesday. By Thursday morning, it had upped the plan to $75 billion PER DAY and added $10 billion in mortgage securities. By Friday morning, the Fed had decided to buy $107 billion worth of Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities. In its first week, the FED purchased $317 billion worth of assets, which is slightly faster than the Fed balance sheet grew at the height of the 2008-2009 financial crisis. Initially, the Federal Reserve estimated purchases of $500 billion but FED chief Jerome Powell said the initial … [Read more...]
Does the FED Control Mortgage Rates?
For new home buyers, anything that increases the cost of the purchase (like rising mortgage interest rates) can negatively impact your ability to be able to afford your home. That is why everyone is concerned when the Federal Reserve (i.e. the FED) raises interest rates. The following chart shows how the Fed Funds Rate has performed from January 2015 through July 2019. The FED lowered the FED Funds rate to near zero in response to the market crash in 2008-2009. It kept it there until January 2016 when it began gradually raising rates. However, at their July end meeting, they decided to lower interest rates, reducing the federal funds rate target by 25 basis points, to a range of 2% to 2.25%. … [Read more...]
5 Reasons to Invest In Gold
Gold has a long history that goes back to thousands of years. As we said here, "Gold came in common use in 3000 B.C. when Egyptians started making it into jewelry. It wasn’t until years later that gold began being used as a medium of exchange." It has cultural significance in most parts of the world. Throughout most of this time, gold was money. Paper or "fiat currency" did not exist until fairly recently. However, today the investment trends in gold have changed. Now, people invest in gold mostly for economic reasons. Investors all around the world buy it because they see gold as an inflation hedge. Here, in this blog, we'll discuss five important reasons to invest in gold right … [Read more...]
Imports, Exports, and Exchange Rates
The world has a global economy. It’s no longer possible to survive as an isolationist. Macroeconomics will tell you that it is most efficient to have each country produce what it can produce cheapest so that all may prosper due to lower-cost goods and increased production. Not surprisingly, the U.S. is the world’s largest importer and also it is no surprise that we import a lot of stuff from China. According to the U.S. Census bureau, in 2018, we imported $539,675.6 Billion worth of goods from China while only exporting $120,148.1 Billion to China for a total trade of $659,823.7. So, in many ways Canada is actually a better trading partner than China since although we imported $318,824.2 … [Read more...]
February Inflation Falls to 2.33%
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its February Inflation report on March 11th, 2020, for the 12 months through the end of February 2020. Annual Inflation Falls Annual inflation fell from the high set at 2.49% in January to 2.33% in February. CPI Index in February was 258.678 up from January's 257.971, December was 256.974, November was 257.208 down from October's 257.346 Monthly Inflation for January was 0.39%, while February was 0.27% down from 0.42% in February 2019. Next release April 10th Currently, the inflation rate is above the FED's target 2% rate. But the FED is concerned with a market meltdown due to falling Oil prices and the Coronavirus so … [Read more...]
How the Economy Works
The economy might seem complex, but it is actually based on three simple processes that are repeated over and over again. These processes are based on human nature and the fact that most people tend to act in their own best interests. The following information is based on a presentation by Ray Dalio. Who is Ray Dalio? According to Wikipedia, Raymond Dalio was born August 8, 1949 and is an American billionaire investor, hedge fund manager, and philanthropist. Dalio is the founder of investment firm Bridgewater Associates, one of the world's largest hedge funds. Bloomberg ranked him as the world's 58th wealthiest person in June 2019. https://youtu.be/PHe0bXAIuk0 The Three Main Forces of … [Read more...]
What Impact Does Interest Rates and Inflation Targets Have on Stocks?
Why is The FED's Targeted Inflation Rate Important in the US? Since 2012, the Fed has targeted an inflation rate of 2%. They have deemed this a healthy rate of inflation, necessary for economic growth. According to the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, since 1977, the Federal Reserve has operated under a mandate from Congress to "promote effectively the goals of maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate long term interest rates" this is called a "dual mandate" in that it is supposed to balance a healthy economy with stable prices not just target low inflation. When the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meets, their job is to fulfill this mandate. The Fed has … [Read more...]
Inflation: The Hidden Tax
The media and the Central Bank (i.e. The U.S. Federal Reserve aka. the "FED") tells us that a little bit of inflation is a good thing. Inflation gets the ball rolling, greases the wheels of commerce, and stimulates the economy. The FED sets as a goal 2% inflation, so inflation must be good for us, right? Two Forms of Inflation Well, it is good for someone but not necessarily for you i.e. the consumer. The first problem comes because there are two different types of “inflation” and by interchanging them we end up with a form of Orwellian “double-speak”. The first kind of inflation is “monetary inflation” i.e. an increase in the overall money supply. This is accomplished by a complex process … [Read more...]
