The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released their monthly Consumer Price Index report on April 10th 2019, for the 12 months through March 2019. Annual Inflation is Up Annual inflation in March was 1.86% up from 1.52% in February. CPI Index was 254.202 in March up from 252.776 in February. Monthly Inflation for March was 0.56%, in February monthly inflation was 0.42% and in March 2018 it was 0.23%. Next release May 10th We've added another bar to the Annual Inflation Rate Chart indicating Quantitative Tightening (QT) check it out here. What is Quantitative Tightening? Annual inflation peaked at 2.95% in July 2018 and fell steadily through February … [Read more...]
How Does Inflation Affect Foreign Exchange Rates
Inflation affects every consumer, business person and investor in some way or other. Inflation is one of the key factors that affect consumer prices, financial markets including Stocks, Bonds and Forex. As such, it is important for consumers, investors and traders to get a deeper understanding of what is inflation and what causes it. What is Inflation? Understanding inflation is often complicated by the fact that the cause and the effect are often muddled together in people's minds due to the lazy way we often refer to inflation. The effect of inflation is what people see when they go shopping and see increases in the general price of goods and services. When the individual prices of just … [Read more...]
Oil Price Inflation Charts and Tables Updated
Oil Price Inflation This month we have updated the Crude Oil Inflation Chart which shows historical crude oil prices and also what they would be if you adjusted them for inflation as of February 2019. We have also updated the Annual Crude Oil Prices Table and the Monthly Crude Oil Prices Table both of which also show prices adjusted for inflation. The nominal price of a barrel of oil was only $1.37 back in 1946 but the inflation adjusted price of oil was $18.92 per barrel. (The nominal price is the price you would have actually paid at the time). The major peaks occurred in December 1979, October 1990, and June 2008 at $125.23, $65.68, and $145.93 respectively (all inflation adjusted to … [Read more...]
February Inflation Virtually Flat
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released their monthly Consumer Price Index report on March 12th 2019, for the 12 months through February 2019. Annual Inflation is Down (Slightly) Annual inflation in February was down very slightly from January's 1.55% to 1.52% February's CPI was 252.776 January's CPI was 251.712 up from December's CPI of 251.233, November was 252.038 Monthly Inflation for February was 0.42%, slightly below last February's 0.45%. December was -0.32%, November was -0.33%. Next release April 10th We've added another bar to the Annual Inflation Rate Chart indicating Quantitative Tightening (QT) check it out here. Annual inflation … [Read more...]
January Inflation Drops Sharply
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released their monthly Consumer Price Index report on February 13th 2019, for the 12 months through January 2019. Annual Inflation is Down Annual inflation in January was 1.55% down from 1.91% in December and 2.18% in November. January's CPI was 251.712 up from December's CPI of 251.233, November was 252.038 Note: January's CPI was only slightly above the 251.588 back in May. Monthly Inflation for January was 0.19%, December was -0.32% virtually identical to November's -0.33%. Next release March 12th We've added another bar to the Annual Inflation Rate Chart indicating Quantitative Tightening (QT) check it out … [Read more...]
Are Deflationary Forces Taking Hold Again?
From the chart below we can see that deflation was an issue in 2009 as the market eliminated billions of dollars in assets when it crashed. The FED used all the tricks in the book to combat the contraction of the money supply including lowering interest rates to near zero and when that wasn't enough it began buying assets through its "quantitative easing" (QE) programs. But the deflationary forces weren't through yet and by 2015 the FED was once again battling deflation. In the chart below we can see that after dropping interest rates to almost zero they kept them there until 2016 when they increased rates very tentatively. But in 2017 they began raising rates a bit more … [Read more...]
Gold as an Investment
The main idea behind investment is to grow and preserve wealth, and in many cases, find unique ways to generate more income. Popular wisdom has it that when interest rates rise gold prices fall because the opportunity cost of holding an non-interest bearing asset is growing. However, contrary to popular wisdom, recent interest rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve have coincided with a rising gold price. At the same time, investor confidence in the stock market is faltering due to the FED's actions. Thus many investors can be seen rushing to the financial security offered by safe haven assets such as gold. Rising Interest Rates Quantitative Tightening This is why gold … [Read more...]
2018 Ends with More Disinflation
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released their monthly Consumer Price Index report on January 11th 2019, for January 1 through December 31, 2018. Annual Inflation is Down Annual inflation in December was 1.91% down from November's 2.18%. December's CPI was 251.233 which was below November's 252.038, below October, September and even below the 251.588 in May. Monthly Inflation for December was -0.32% virtually identical to November's -0.33%. Next release February 13th Monthly Inflation: According to the BLS commissioner's report, "In December, the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers fell 0.1 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis; rising 1.9 percent over … [Read more...]
How Inflation and Interest Rates Relate
In addition to sounding similar interest and inflation are amazingly inter-related. And in effect interest rates incorporate a "negative feedback loop" into inflation. When people think of the word inflation they generally think of how inflation affects them. They see rising prices of common commodities like gasoline or food and worry about the rising cost of living. But that is simply the effect of inflation and it is technically referred to as "price inflation" but the cause of price inflation itself is actually much more complicated. In the short run, prices can rise due to a shortage in supply, such as a gasoline shortage caused by a refinery having to shut down due to a … [Read more...]
Why Inflation Matters to Small Businesses
By: J. Blake Ledbetter, Conoscienti & Ledbetter Price inflation is the term that economists use to characterize an increase in the price of goods and services over time, which reduces the purchasing power of the currency. The bite of inflation often can be slow and painful. When inflation rates rise above 5% however they can be devastating to an economy and especially to small businesses. The rate of inflation is the increase in prices during a specified period. If inflation is at three percent annually, something that costs $100 this year will cost $103 next year. What it means to consumers and businesses is that money doesn't buy as much. Inflation can be especially … [Read more...]
