The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released its inflation report for June on July 14th. June Inflation Summary: The BLS reported Annual Inflation was down a seasonally adjusted -0.4% from May's 4.2% to June's 3.5%, this was the largest seasonally adjusted monthly decline since the COVID shutdown in April 2020. Prior to April 2020, the next comparable drop was December 2008, in the depths of the financial crisis, when collapsing oil prices dragged the seasonally-adjusted CPI-U down sharply. The BLS's April 2020 release referred to that drop as "the largest monthly decline since December 2008". Fortunately, the current decline is more of a normalization after a massive war-induced … [Read more...]
How Explosive Growth in AI Triggers Inflation
Not all inflation is caused by an expanding money supply. Imagine waking up tomorrow and discovering that the world suddenly has four billion more people. Food prices would explode overnight, not because farmers forgot how to farm, or because food production disappeared due to drought, but because demand would massively exceed supply. Inflation doesn't always come from speculation and money supply, sometimes it comes from... This is the analogy Jordi Visser uses to explain today’s AI‑driven inflation: The AI boom has created a sudden, massive surge in demand for a scarce resource, i.e., high‑bandwidth memory (HBM). Just as food inflation emerges when population outstrips agricultural … [Read more...]
Warsh’s First FOMC: No Dot, No Guidance, and No Dovish Pivot
Kevin Warsh ran his first Federal Open Market Committee meeting as Fed Chair on June 16-17, and if you were expecting a victory lap for the doves, you were watching the wrong meeting. The Fed held rates steady at 3.50%-3.75%, which was never really in doubt. What mattered was everything around that decision, and on nearly every front, Warsh signaled he's not interested in playing the game the way his predecessors did. An Unusual Twist Here's the thing nobody saw coming: Warsh didn't submit a 2028 federal funds rate projection for himself. Warsh has been openly skeptical of the dot plot and forward guidance for years, saying the dot plot "is not helpful in the conduct of policy". So, as … [Read more...]
May Inflation Up to 4.25%
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released its inflation report for May on June 10th. May Inflation Summary: The BLS reported Annual Inflation was up a "seasonally-adjusted" 0.5% from April's 3.8% to May's 4.2%. That was on top of the 0.5% "seasonally-adjusted" increase from 3.3% in March to 3.8% in April. When we look at the 2-decimal-place non-adjusted numbers, we see it rose even more in April, i.e., from March's 3.26% to 3.81% (or 0.55%), and less in May (0.44%) to 4.25%. The CPI Index rose from 333.020 in April to 335.123 in May Monthly Inflation for May 2026 was 0.63%, up from 0.21% in May 2025. Monthly Inflation for April 2026 was 0.85%, up from 0.31% in April … [Read more...]
May 2026: BLS April Inflation
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released its inflation report for April on May 12th. April Inflation Summary: The BLS reported Annual Inflation was up 0.5% from March's 3.3%, to 3.8% in April. When we look at it to 2 decimal places, we see it rose even more, i.e., from 3.26% to 3.81% (or 0.55%). The CPI Index rose from 330.213 to 333.020 Monthly Inflation for April 2026 was 0.85%, up from 0.31% in April 2025. Next release June 10th, 2026 Annual Inflation … [Read more...]
How will FED Chairman Warsh affect Rates and Inflation?
The Federal Reserve just made history — and not in a way anyone expected. After holding rates unchanged for a third straight meeting, the most divided Fed vote in 34 years is already signaling what a new era under incoming Chairman Kevin Warsh might look like. Jerome Powell's Final Act: An 8-4 Vote That Speaks Volumes Jerome Powell chaired what is almost certainly his last Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on April 30, 2026, and the committee did not go quietly. The Fed voted 8-4 to hold rates steady, the most fractured result since 1992. That's not just a footnote; it's a loud signal that the committee is deeply split on where rates should go next. Powell, for his part, is … [Read more...]
Ben Cowan: Is the Fed Heading Toward Checkmate?
In his latest video, macro analyst Ben Cowan breaks down the most recent CPI report and what it means for the Federal Reserve, the labor market, and the broader business cycle. Here are the key takeaways. What's Driving the Increase? Inflation surged to 3.3% in the latest CPI report, up sharply from 2.4% the prior month — a full percentage point increase in a single month. Cowan notes that while markets had anticipated the rise, the speed of the move is a stark reminder of how quickly the inflation picture can change. Energy prices are the primary culprit, driven by supply constraints tied to tensions in the Middle East. Apparel and transportation costs also jumped notably, while housing … [Read more...]
The Truth About Truflation vs. the BLS’s CPI
How the BLS Builds the CPI The CPI is not a rough estimate but a carefully built, survey-driven system refined over more than a century. To construct it, the BLS gathers price data on hundreds of everyday goods and services, known as the “market basket.” This effort spans roughly 8,000 housing units and 23,000 retailers, service providers, and online outlets across 75 urban areas nationwide, creating a detailed snapshot of how prices move in the real world. Approximately two-thirds of that price collection is done by personal visits from CPI data collectors to brick-and-mortar stores. The remaining data are collected by telephone or on outlet websites and apps. This is painstaking, … [Read more...]
Massive March 2026 Inflation Spike
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released its inflation report for March on April 10th. The BLS reported the annual inflation at 3.3% for March. But when we look at it to 2 decimal places, we 3.26%. CPI Index rose sharply from 326.785 to 330.213 Monthly Inflation for March 2026 was a massive 1.05%, up from 0.47% in February and 0.22% in March 2025. Next release May 12th, 2026 Annual Inflation … [Read more...]
Is Gas Really More Expensive Than Ever?
With the war in Iran and the Straits of Hormuz closed, Crude Oil has skyrocketed, taking gasoline prices with it. But how are gasoline prices doing on an inflation-adjusted basis? Are they higher than 2022's prices? Are gas prices really at all-time highs? How do today's prices compare to what your grandparents paid? Was gas really that cheap during the 1950s and 60s? What caused gas prices to crater in 1998? How do today's prices compare to prices during the 1970s OPEC shock? What is the average inflation-adjusted price of gas over the last century? Are we above or below the average? The answers might surprise you. When you adjust for inflation, the story of … [Read more...]