The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released their monthly Consumer Price Index report on February 13th 2019, for the 12 months through January 2019. Annual Inflation is Down Annual inflation in January was 1.55% down from 1.91% in December and 2.18% in November. January's CPI was 251.712 up from December's CPI of 251.233, November was 252.038 Note: January's CPI was only slightly above the 251.588 back in May. Monthly Inflation for January was 0.19%, December was -0.32% virtually identical to November's -0.33%. Next release March 12th We've added another bar to the Annual Inflation Rate Chart indicating Quantitative Tightening (QT) check it out … [Read more...]
Are Deflationary Forces Taking Hold Again?
From the chart below we can see that deflation was an issue in 2009 as the market eliminated billions of dollars in assets when it crashed. The FED used all the tricks in the book to combat the contraction of the money supply including lowering interest rates to near zero and when that wasn't enough it began buying assets through its "quantitative easing" (QE) programs. But the deflationary forces weren't through yet and by 2015 the FED was once again battling deflation. In the chart below we can see that after dropping interest rates to almost zero they kept them there until 2016 when they increased rates very tentatively. But in 2017 they began raising rates a bit more … [Read more...]
Gold as an Investment
The main idea behind investment is to grow and preserve wealth, and in many cases, find unique ways to generate more income. Popular wisdom has it that when interest rates rise gold prices fall because the opportunity cost of holding an non-interest bearing asset is growing. However, contrary to popular wisdom, recent interest rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve have coincided with a rising gold price. At the same time, investor confidence in the stock market is faltering due to the FED's actions. Thus many investors can be seen rushing to the financial security offered by safe haven assets such as gold. Rising Interest Rates Quantitative Tightening This is why gold … [Read more...]
2018 Ends with More Disinflation
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released their monthly Consumer Price Index report on January 11th 2019, for January 1 through December 31, 2018. Annual Inflation is Down Annual inflation in December was 1.91% down from November's 2.18%. December's CPI was 251.233 which was below November's 252.038, below October, September and even below the 251.588 in May. Monthly Inflation for December was -0.32% virtually identical to November's -0.33%. Next release February 13th Monthly Inflation: According to the BLS commissioner's report, "In December, the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers fell 0.1 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis; rising 1.9 percent over … [Read more...]
How Inflation and Interest Rates Relate
In addition to sounding similar interest and inflation are amazingly inter-related. And in effect interest rates incorporate a "negative feedback loop" into inflation. When people think of the word inflation they generally think of how inflation affects them. They see rising prices of common commodities like gasoline or food and worry about the rising cost of living. But that is simply the effect of inflation and it is technically referred to as "price inflation" but the cause of price inflation itself is actually much more complicated. In the short run, prices can rise due to a shortage in supply, such as a gasoline shortage caused by a refinery having to shut down due to a … [Read more...]
Why Inflation Matters to Small Businesses
By: J. Blake Ledbetter, Conoscienti & Ledbetter Price inflation is the term that economists use to characterize an increase in the price of goods and services over time, which reduces the purchasing power of the currency. The bite of inflation often can be slow and painful. When inflation rates rise above 5% however they can be devastating to an economy and especially to small businesses. The rate of inflation is the increase in prices during a specified period. If inflation is at three percent annually, something that costs $100 this year will cost $103 next year. What it means to consumers and businesses is that money doesn't buy as much. Inflation can be especially … [Read more...]
November was Deflationary
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released their monthly Consumer Price Index report on December 12th 2018, for the 12 month period through the end of November. Annual Inflation is Down Annual inflation in November was 2.18% down from October's 2.52% and below September's 2.28% and the 2.70% in August. CPI was 252.038 in November below October, September and the 252.146 in August. Monthly Inflation for November was -0.33 October was 0.18% in September it was 0.12%, compared to virtually zero in November 2017. Next release January 11th Monthly Inflation: According the the BLS Commissioner's report: "In November, the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers was … [Read more...]
Cryptocurrencies and Inflation
In our article, What is the Real Definition of Inflation? we explained that there is a major difference between the the cause and the effect of Inflation and unfortunately both are loosely called "Inflation". More accurately the cause is "monetary inflation" i.e. an increase in the money supply and the effect is "Price Inflation" i.e. an increase in the cost of goods and services. Can Cryptocurrencies "Cure" Inflation Since the dawn of money there has been fear of debasement. In the early years, when gold and silver were the primary forms of currency it was possible that another cheaper metal like lead could be mixed in with the molten gold and because of its near identical atomic weight … [Read more...]
October Inflation Up Slightly
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released their monthly Consumer Price Index report on November 14th 2018, for the 12 month period through the end of October. Annual Inflation is Up Annual inflation was 2.52% in October up from 2.28% in September. CPI was 252.885 in October up from 252.439 in September, and 252.146 in August. Monthly Inflation for October was 0.18%, 0.12% in September, compared to -0.06% in October 2017. Next release December 12th Monthly Inflation: According the the BLS Commissioner's report: "The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.3 percent in October on a seasonally adjusted basis after rising 0.1 percent in … [Read more...]
Did the Democrats Really Vote Against the Social Security Cost of Living Increase?
There is a meme circulating around Facebook right now about Democrats voting against the 2.8% Cost of living increase. Normally, here at inflationData we try to avoid politics unless it directly relates to inflation, or our other major topics covered. But in this case I feel compelled to address this issue. The quick answer is that this is "NOT TRUE". However, if the MEME was phrased slightly differently it would be "TECHNICALLY TRUE". If the Meme said, "NONE of the Democrats voted FOR the Social Security Cost of Living Increase" it would be "TECHNICALLY TRUE". Likewise, if it said "NONE of the Republicans voted FOR the Social Security Cost of Living Increase" it would also … [Read more...]
