September Inflation Falls

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released its September Inflation report on Wednesday October 10^th showing Annual Inflation was down from 2.5% in August to 2.4% in September.

(But since we calculate it to two digits, it was actually 2.53% in August and 2.44% in September.) On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, monthly inflation in August was 0.08% and it increased to 0.16% in September but that was still lower than last September’s 0.25% so the annual inflation rate fell.

Gold Prices:

As you can see on the above hourly chart, Gold peaked just over $2680, late last month, shortly after we published the chart below saying that, “On an inflation-adjusted basis gold is near all-time-highs.” It bottomed around $2607 and began climbing again to around $2,636.

The inflation-adjusted 1980 annual average price is $2553 in August 2024 dollars. The absolute peak price in 1980 was $850 or an inflation-adjusted whopping $3226 so, we could have a little ways to go to reach that lofty level.

Kitco posted two apparently contradictory articles today:

Inflation Prediction:

Last month’s prediction precisely hit the “Most Likely” line on our MIP chart.

See this month’s MIP prediction

September 2024 Inflation Summary:

Annual Inflation fell from 2.53% to 2.44%
CPI Index rose from 314.796 to 315.301
Monthly Inflation for September 2024 was 0.16% down from 0.25% in September 2023.
Next release Nov 13^th 2024

	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	June	July	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec
2022	7.48%	7.87%	8.54%	8.26%	8.58%	9.06%	8.52%	8.26%	8.20%	7.75%	7.11%	6.45%
2023	6.41%	6.04%	4.98%	4.93%	4.05%	2.97%	3.18%	3.67%	3.70%	3.24%	3.14%	3.35%
2024	3.09%	3.15%	3.48%	3.36%	3.27%	2.97%	2.89%	2.53%	2.44%

BLS Commentary:

The BLS Commissioner reported:
“The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis, the same increase as in August and July, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all-items index increased 2.4 percent before seasonal adjustment.

The index for shelter rose 0.2 percent in September, and the index for food increased 0.4 percent. Together, these two indexes contributed over 75 percent of the monthly all-items increase. The food at home index increased 0.4 percent in September and the food away from home index rose 0.3 percent over the month. The energy index fell 1.9 percent over the month, after declining 0.8 percent the preceding month.”

Looking at Table A we see the biggest gainers on an annual basis are still Services like Food away from home, shelter, and transportation services.

Although these “Seasonally Adjusted” numbers are slightly different than those presented by the BLS, the following chart from the Federal Reserve shows the gap between inflation with and without Food and Energy. Comparing the two we can see how much food and energy contribute toward overall inflation.

If the blue line is above the red line, food and energy, add to the overall inflation rate. But if blue is below the red line, they are actually mitigating overall inflation. With Energy prices on a monthly basis still negative they are still moderating overall inflation.

Source: St. Louis FED

FED Assets

FED assets continue downward.

M2 Money Supply

But M2 money supply is trending upward at pretty much the same rate as prior to COVID.

More info about FED Monetary Policy and Inflation

Inflation Chart

Monthly Inflation Compared to Previous Years:

The monthly inflation rate for September 2024 was 0.16%.

In the chart below, we can see how the UNADJUSTED monthly inflation compares between 2018 (light green), 2019 (light blue), 2020 (pink), 2021 (purple), 2022 (orange), 2023 (dark), 2024 (teal). Interestingly, January 2018 and January 2024 are identical. In 2024 monthly inflation started a bit higher than average at 0.54%, 0.62%, 0.65%, but April, May, and June 2024 came in significantly lower than 2023, which brought annual inflation down. September 2024 was 0.16% compared to 0.25% in September 2023.

Not Seasonally Adjusted Monthly Inflation Rates

Note: January 2022’s 0.84% was the highest January since 1990. June was the highest June since 1941 (although the first quarter of 1980 had some higher rates). Typically, the first quarter has the highest monthly inflation and the 4th quarter is the lowest (even negative).

	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec
2016	0.17%	0.08%	0.43%	0.47%	0.41%	0.33%	(0.16%)	0.09%	0.24%	0.12%	(0.16%)	0.03%
2017	0.58%	0.31%	0.08%	0.30%	0.09%	0.09%	(0.07%)	0.30%	0.53%	(0.06%)	0.002%	(0.06%)
2018	0.54%	0.45%	0.23%	0.40%	0.42%	0.16%	0.01%	0.06%	0.12%	0.18%	(0.33%)	(0.32%)
2019	0.19%	0.42%	0.56%	0.53%	0.21%	0.02%	0.17%	(0.01%)	0.08%	0.23%	(0.05%)	(0.09%)
2020	0.39%	0.27%	(0.22%)	(0.67%)	0.002%	0.55%	0.51%	0.32%	0.14%	0.04%	(0.06%)	0.09%
2021	0.43%	0.55%	0.71%	0.82%	0.80%	0.93%	0.48%	0.21%	0.27%	0.83%	0.49%	0.31%
2022	0.84%	0.91%	1.34%	0.56%	1.10%	1.37%	(0.01%)	(0.04%)	0.22%	0.41%	(0.10%)	(0.34%)
2023	0.80%	0.56%	0.33%	0.51%	0.25%	0.32%	0.19%	0.44%	0.25%	(0.04%)	(0.20%)	(0.10%)
2024	0.54%	0.62%	0.65%	0.39%	0.17%	0.03%	0.12%	0.08%	0.16%

See: Monthly Inflation Rate for more information and a complete table of Unadjusted Monthly Rates.

Misery Index

Current Misery Index:

Unemployment 4.10% + Inflation 2.44% = 6.54%

Unemployment and inflation were down so the misery index fell. The Average Misery index under Trump was 6.9% including COVID or 6.1% excluding COVID and so far under Biden the average Misery index is 9.3%.

[Read More on the Misery Index…]

Rate of Change (ROC) Charts

We updated the ROC charts including the new Crypto ROC chart. The NYSE ROC continued upward through the end of August and retains a hold signal.

The NASDAQ ROC issued a Sell signal at the end of July (prior to the mini Yen crash) and looks like it has reversed directions with the FED rate cut.

Bitcoin also issued a tentative sell signal due to recent weakness in light of massive selling by the German government. But it appears to have reversed directions as well. See our new Crypto ROC for more information.

For more information, see NYSE Rate of Change (ROC) , NASDAQ ROC Chart, and Crypto ROC .

You Might Also Like:

From InflationData.com

From Financial Trend Forecaster

From UnemploymentData.com.

From Elliott Wave University

From OptioMoney

From Your Family Finances

About Tim McMahon

Connect with Tim on Google+.