Although this site is called Inflation Data for the last several years we have been talking a lot about the big "D"... deflation. Strictly speaking, the only true deflation (inflation rates below zero) occurred in 2009 and then very briefly in 2015. See Annual Inflation Rate Chart. But as the chart shows the overall trend since the peak in 1990 has been down with the occasional spike upward. Since the peak in September 2011 however, the trend has been sharply down (falling inflation rates = disinflation) until it bottomed in April 2015. Since then inflation has turned up and has crossed above its moving average. So does this mean that we are in for a bout of inflation? Possibly. … [Read more...]
Bank Closures “Could Never Happen Here”
By Jared Dillian I was watching the 6 o’clock news and saw images of closed banks in Greece and people lined up at ATMs. I’m sure you did, too.This must seem surreal to most people because it seems so remote. But put yourself in these people’s shoes for a second. You have money in the bank. Suddenly you can’t get to it. After standing in long lines, you can only get 60 euros at a time, which isn’t going to last you very long. What if you didn’t plan adequately and haven’t stashed away any cash? The banks will be closed for a while. What happens? How do you pay for rent? Or food? How does your employer pay you? Do you go homeless? Or hungry? Do you get really angry, take … [Read more...]
Annual Inflation Below 1%
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released their monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on Friday January 16th for December and for the first time since 2009 reported annual inflation below 1% (although we calculated October 2013 at 0.96%). The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December was 234.812 down from November’s 236.151 which was also down from 237.433 for October. This resulted in a monthly decrease in prices of -0.57% and an annual inflation rate of 0.76%. Overall energy on a “seasonally adjusted” basis was down -4.7% for the month and -10.6% on an unadjusted basis for the entire year. Fuel oil fell -7.8% for the month (adjusted) and a whopping -19.1% annually. Gasoline was … [Read more...]
Crude Oil and Gold
Because inflation decreases the value of of money, in order to have a “yard stick” of constant value it is necessary to use the inflation adjusted price when we consider the price of a commodity like Oil. Here at InflationData we have provided a variety of charts of the inflation adjusted price of commodities like Oil, Gasoline, Electricity, Natural Gas, Stock Market, Housing Prices, Education Costs and much more. But each of these requires you to rely on potentially flawed inflation statistics generated by some outside agency or government. If that agency has an agenda other than accuracy your cost estimates could be flawed. But there is an alternative and that is to compare your … [Read more...]
Where is Gold Headed?
This week has been tumultuous for the markets with steep market drops and subsequent rallies. Over the last month gold has been as high as $1260 subsequently it fell steadily to $1190 for a 5.5% drop. But then gold bottomed near $1190 and as of this writing it has risen above $1220 for a 2.5% rally in a couple of days. So what does that mean for the price of gold? Is it doomed or is the bottom in and we are seeing bargain prices? This week two of our favorite commentators Casey Research and Elliott Wave International have both jumped into the discussion and I present their views here. ~ Tim McMahon, Editor Gold: Time to Prepare for Big Gains? By Casey Research Years of … [Read more...]
Where is Gold Headed?
To get the true measure of anything it is important that you use a standardized measurement. This of course is why a "foot" or "inch" eventually became exactly a certain length and didn't vary based on each particular person doing the measuring. And more recently it is why Celsius measurement relates to the exact freezing and boiling points of water at an exact atmospheric pressure. It is also why, when we measure a commodity like Gold or the stock market we need to use a scale that doesn't change. Unfortunately, the typical measurement i.e. the U.S. dollar is always changing in value. That is the dollar depreciates due to inflation thus changing the measurement on a daily (or at least … [Read more...]
How “Excess Reserves” and the Money Multiplier Could Trigger Inflation
Banks have $2.5 trillion parked in "excess reserves". This is money on deposit with the FED. The FED pays a miniscule amount of interest on these reserves but the banks are willing to loan it to the FED because it is easy no risk income. But it is also the reason that the money multiplier is falling! And when the money multiplier is falling the FED has a very hard time increasing the money supply. So if the FED really wants to increase the money supply all it has to do is decrease the interest rate it pays on excess reserves and the banks will find some place else to deploy it. Which could trigger massive inflation. ~Tim McMahon,editor A Fed Policy Change That Will Increase the Gold … [Read more...]
A Reader Question About IRAs and Gold Stocks
I recently got an excellent question from a longtime reader named Bob and I thought I would pass along some of what I told him. Bob has invested a good portion of his IRA in shares of Randgold Resources. The NASDAQ symbol is GOLD. Randgold Resources is a gold mining business based primarily in Mali. Its headquarters are in Jersey, the Channel Islands, it is listed on the London and the NASDAQ stock exchanges. Bob has been accumulating shares of Randgold because he feels that as a mining company it is a productive asset rather than physical gold (or paper derivatives of gold) which earns no interest (or dividends). Randgold peaked at around $127 back in October 2012 and has been trending … [Read more...]
The Case of the Disappearing Gold
When I was in the 6th grade (many, many years ago) my class took a field trip to New York City and visited the NY FED. The highlight of the trip for me was a ride down the elevator (or more precisely what was at the bottom. The ride took forever with dozens of kids and one security guard in that tight stuffy space. Anticipation built as we went down what seemed like miles into the earth where the vaults rested on Manhattan bedrock. And what was in those vaults? Gold! Lots of gold! Each vault had a name on it but not people's names, countries names. After all in those days people weren't allowed to own gold. For years now there has been a controversy as to whether our (the U.S.) Gold … [Read more...]
2 Types of Money
From the beginning, productivity improved with specialization. If one person can produce fruit more efficiently while the other was a better hunter, more wealth will be generated if the hunter hunts and the farmer farms. Forcing the farmer to hunt or the hunter to farm is just plain inefficient. But in order for the system to work there has to be a medium of exchange. Somehow the farmer has to be able to get the wild game in exchange for his crops. And what if the farmer wants meat but his crops aren't ripe yet? Well, that is how credit developed. In today's post Bill Bonner looks at mediums of exchange i.e. money and credit. He examines how they began and what they mean for us and our … [Read more...]
