One of the major factors affecting an election's outcome is the nation’s economy during the election year. In terms of trading and from an investment standpoint, financial security is a huge issue. But unlike recent election years, forecasters predict a strong economy in 2016 during the presidential race. Economic conditions can change however, depending on which candidate wins. With the US Presidential Election still a good six months away (November 8, 2016), how will it affect inflation and the economy as a whole? Low Unemployment Rate Researchers in political science, project that unemployment will be at its lowest, since the election in 2000 (Bush versus Gore) when it was at 3.9%. … [Read more...]
CPI Reaches All-Time High
BLS Releases April Inflation Data The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the inflation data for the year ending in April on May 17th, 2016. The Annual Inflation Rate was 1.13% up from 0.85% last month. The Consumer Price Index (CPI-U) reached an all-time high of 239.261. Normally, this wouldn't be news since for years it made a new high almost every month. But after peaking at 238.316 last August (2015) the index fell to 236.525 by December and took 8 months (until April) to climb above August's level. Interestingly, in September 2014 the index was 238.031. So it has taken 19 months for overall prices to exceed the level first attained in September 2014. This doesn't … [Read more...]
BLS Releases March CPI and Inflation
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released the March CPI and inflation numbers on April 14th. Annual Inflation fell from 1.02% for the 12 months ending in February to 0.85% for the 12 months ending in March. Interestingly, prices rose 0.43% for the month of March alone, so monthly inflation in March was almost exactly half of the total inflation for the entire year. The Consumer Price Index (CPI-U) was 238.132 up from 237.111 in February 2016 and 236.119 for March 2015. According the BLS Commissioner's report, " The food index declined in March, while the indexes for energy and for all items less food and energy rose, leading to the slight seasonally adjusted increase in the all items … [Read more...]
Inflation Picks Up in December
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) published their current inflation (CPI-U) report for the month of December on January 20th. The Consumer Price Index was 236.525 down from 237.336 in November. With the index going down you would think that we would have deflation but because when we say inflation or deflation we are talking about annual inflation/deflation we need to compare the index to the index from a year previous. Since the CPI-U for December 2014 was 234.812 and the current index is higher, we had annual inflation of 0.73%. According to the BLS, over the last 12 months Energy Prices have fallen -12.6%. Specifically, Gasoline is down -19.7%, Fuel Oil is down -31.4% and … [Read more...]
Betting on Deflation May Be a Huge Mistake. Here’s Why…
Although this site is called Inflation Data for the last several years we have been talking a lot about the big "D"... deflation. Strictly speaking, the only true deflation (inflation rates below zero) occurred in 2009 and then very briefly in 2015. See Annual Inflation Rate Chart. But as the chart shows the overall trend since the peak in 1990 has been down with the occasional spike upward. Since the peak in September 2011 however, the trend has been sharply down (falling inflation rates = disinflation) until it bottomed in April 2015. Since then inflation has turned up and has crossed above its moving average. So does this mean that we are in for a bout of inflation? Possibly. … [Read more...]
Inflation UP, CPI Down for November
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released their inflation numbers for the year ending November 30th on December 15, 2015. The Consumer Price Index (CPI-U) for November was 237.336 down from 237.838 at the end of October so overall prices declined -0.21% over the month but Annual Inflation was still up 0.50% (or ½%) for the year. This is the 4th month in a row where prices are lower than the previous month. In the table below we can see that last November the CPI was at 236.151. Then prices fell through January peaked in July and then fell to current levels. Month CPI-U Index Monthly Inflation Annual … [Read more...]
Are Oil Companies Ripping us off with Gas Prices?
With the steady decline in gasoline prices during 2015 people aren't too concerned with the price of gas anymore. But on occasion crude oil prices have fallen without the corresponding decline in gasoline prices. When this occurs someone always asks me if the prices are actually correlated or are the oil companies just ripping us off. This prompted me to create a chart comparing the price of crude oil to that of gasoline so you can see for yourself how well they correlate and I recently updated that chart. See the full article here: Gasoline vs. Crude Oil Prices. You might also enjoy: Are Low Crude Oil Prices a “Boom Or A Curse” For The World Economy? Includes: Top 10 Crude … [Read more...]
October… 0.17% Annual Inflation but -0.05% Monthly Deflation
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released their inflation numbers for the year ending October 31st on November 17, 2015. Although Annual inflation was positive at 0.17% monthly inflation was negative (disinflationary) for the third month in a row. This is the result of the CPI index falling consistently from a high in July 2015 of 238.654. In August it was 238.316 resulting in a monthly inflation for August of -0.14%. September 2015 was 237.945 for a monthly inflation rate of -0.16 and then October 2015 was 237.832 resulting in monthly -0.04%. However, Annual Inflation was still positive in two of the three months, i.e. August through October were 0.20%, -0.04% and 0.17% respectively. … [Read more...]
Fuzzy Inflation Logic
I recently received a scathing comment from "Cameron" on an article I had written several years ago entitled Food Price Inflation Since 1913. In the article I presented an interesting table that compared the prices of various food items between January 1913 and January 2013. I actually thought it was quite a good picture of price comparisons over a 100 year period. Here is a portion of one of the tables presented: Click for Full Table. Cameron took exception to fact that some items like flour increased by 1488%. Because of that he accused me of sensationalism and not taking into account inflation. At first I was confused, after all isn't the whole table about inflation? Then … [Read more...]
Deflation Returns in September
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released their inflation numbers for the year ending September 30th on October 15, 2015. Monthly inflation was negative (disinflationary) for the second month in a row resulting in annual deflation of -0.04%. Although at this level the deflation is so slight that the BLS rounds it to Zero. So basically prices are on par with those of a year ago. However, that doesn't mean that all prices are identical to those of a year ago. In the report issued by the BLS yesterday we note that food prices are up 1.4% over a year ago while energy prices are down -18.4%. and all other items excluding food and energy are up 1.9% so we see that the primary cause of the … [Read more...]
