The Massive Gap Between Official Turkish Inflation and Reality The Turkish economy is a trainwreck. Labor is constantly striking for higher wages because inflation is so high. According to the Labor Studies Group, at least 56 worker strikes broke out in Turkey between January 12th and February 10th, and last year the Turkish currency lost 40% of its value against the U.S. Dollar. Interestingly, contrary to all mainstream Economists, Turkey’s President Erdogan insists that lower interest rates fight inflation. So he has kept interest rates artificially low, making the situation worse. Turkey’s falling exchange rate creates a problem for Turkish businesses that get their revenues in lira and … [Read more...]
January Inflation Nears 40 Year High
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Another Record High Annual Inflation Rate in January. Inflation Summary: Annual Inflation highest since February 1982. CPI Index rose from 278.802 to 281.148. Monthly Inflation for January was 0.84% The next release is on March 10th Annual Inflation for the 12 months ending in January was 7.48%. Jan. 2021- 1.40% -- Jan 2022- 7.48% 2021 Inflation Rates Feb 2021 1.68% -- June 2021 5.39% -- Dec. 7.04% Inflation soared from January 2021 to January 2022 reaching an almost 40 year high. The last time inflation was higher was in February 1982 when it was 7.62% but then it was declining from the March 1980 peak of 14.76%. As you … [Read more...]
Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers on the Current Inflation Situation
Larry Summers was the 71st United States Secretary of the Treasury from 1999 to 2001 under Bill Clinton and Obama’s head of the National Economic Council from 2009 to 2010 and the president of Harvard University (2001–2006), so he might know a little about inflation. Recently he is quoted as saying that although there are some “transitory” components of the current inflation situation, we are also “moving towards higher entrenched inflation”. One of the factors he mentioned was “expectations,” which we have discussed in previous articles. When expectations of higher inflation start, it becomes almost a “self-fulfilling prophesy” because employees fight for higher wages expecting their … [Read more...]
How Quickly Can The FED Get Inflation Under Control?
This is an interesting question. How long DOES it take to get inflation under control? I've often said that the economy is like a cruise ship; it doesn't turn on a dime. A cruise ship can't just come barreling into the harbor at full speed and slam on the brakes when it's near the dock. If it tried that, it would end up destroying half the town. Typically, it takes AT LEAST 9 months for the economy to see the effects of the FED's actions. In order to control inflation, a successful FED has to anticipate where the economy will be nine months to a year down the road and then take measured steps to correct it before we get there. We haven't seen that this time. What we have seen is a FED in … [Read more...]
When Is Inflation Good for the Economy?
Typically inflation and higher prices are considered bad, but occasionally they may be good for the economy... Inflation is one of the oldest concepts in economic theory, but experts still struggle to decipher its actual role in the market. It is often seen as a financial plague, which can ruin entire nations if it gets out of control. Price inflation means that prices have increased in the economy, usually due to monetary inflation, i.e., an increase in the money supply. Some of the most inglorious examples of hyperinflation are Germany in 1923, Greece in 1944, Hungary in 1946, Zimbabwe in 2008, and surprisingly the U.S. Confederacy during the Civil War. But proponents of inflation … [Read more...]
December 2021 Inflation 5 Times as High as Last December
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Record High Annual Inflation Rate in December. Inflation Summary: Annual Inflation highest since June 1982. CPI Index rose from 277.948 to 278.802. Monthly Inflation for December was 0.31% The next release is on February 10th Annual Inflation for the 12 months ending in December was 7.04%. 2021 Inflation Rates Nov. 6.81% -- Oct. 6.22% -- Sept. 5.39% -- Aug. 5.25% -- July 5.37% -- June 5.39% -- January 1.40% Inflation in December 2020 was just 1.36%, but by December 2021, Inflation had multiplied over five times in a single year to 7.04%. As you can see from the chart below, current levels have exceeded the July 2008 peak of … [Read more...]
Soaring Inflation Can Skyrocket Your Insurance Costs
Recent events including the pandemic were, in many ways, defined by categorical health concerns, followed by government-triggered economic uncertainty and ultimately rising inflation. This unique event in world history has triggered economic ramifications, including a potential hike in insurance rates brought about by accelerated overall inflation. Today we’ll look at just the insurance component of overall inflation, although food and energy are more significant factors in the inflation calculation. It may be distressing to say, but insurance costs must keep up with the rate of inflation if their policies are to remain economically sustainable by the company. After all, there is nothing … [Read more...]
How Nixon’s Revolutionary Move Influenced U.S. Inflation For 50 Years
Nixon is not remembered well by history because of the single defining moment of Watergate and the high inflation rate during his Presidency. However, according to a 2017 C-SPAN Presidential Historians Survey, Nixon actually ranked 10th among all presidents for his foreign policy. And the Siena College Research Institute, Presidential Expert Poll of 2010 ranked him 11th on foreign policy accomplishments. Of the 21 different categories, this survey ranked Nixon an average of 27.6th out of 44 presidents... so only slightly worse than average. Nixon’s China Visit One of Nixon’s foreign policy actions was to open diplomatic relations with China. This one action would have long-lasting … [Read more...]
U.S. Inflation is Not the Only One Increasing
It is not just U.S. inflation that is surging. Other countries have followed the U.S. lead and pumped massive liquidity into their economies. For instance, Brazil had double-digit inflation, Mexico had 6.24% inflation, and South Africa had 5% inflation. Brazil: In October Brazil announced that it had broken the double-digit inflation mark at 10.25%. The last time this happened was in 2016. In November they announced that as of October annual inflation was up slightly more to 10.67% with monthly inflation of 1.16%. In addition, Brazil is suffering from 14.1% unemployment resulting in a Misery Index of 24.77%. Currently, the U.S. Misery Index is less than half that at 10.82%. UK Inflation … [Read more...]
Inflation: The New Normal?
After decades of low inflation and even fears of deflation, inflation concerns are once again dominating the headlines in the contemporary financial media. As the global economy grappled with the fallout of the coronavirus pandemic, major central banks embarked on an unprecedented monetary easing program. This was an attempt to shore up the flagging economic growth by increasing the money supply. This resulted in the shortest recession in economic history but also created problems of its own. With widespread shortages spooking consumers and investors alike, central banks are now having to contend with persistent supply chain disruptions, decaying consumer confidence, and the looming … [Read more...]