Healthcare spending in the U.S. is higher than in any other nation. As of this writing hospital services have increased 7.2% over the last 12 months. In 2022, healthcare costs reached $4.5 trillion, with individuals spending an average of $13,493 annually. With soaring prescription drug prices, higher deductibles, and premium increases, costs are getting out of hand. According to Price Waterhouse, "The cost of treating patients is on the rise. The healthcare industry is under pressure from high inflation, rising wages, and other costs, which are only compounded by clinical workforce shortages. Health payers are negotiating pricing with hospitals while provider profit margins continue to … [Read more...]
The Death of the PetroDollar
Earlier this month, the internet was flooded with reports, stating that the “50-year petrodollar agreement” between the United States and Saudi Arabia had expired and that the petrodollar was now dead. Over the years we've written on the PetroDollar on several occasions. But this time, just as in the case of Mark Twain, "the Death of the PetroDollar has been greatly exaggerated". Ten years ago, we published an article entitled Oil, Petrodollars and Gold. In that article, I showed how the demonetizing of gold eventually led to Henry Kissinger making a deal in 1973 with Saudi Arabia to denominate all their oil sales in U.S. Dollars in exchange for the Kingdom receiving U.S. military … [Read more...]
May Inflation Surprisingly Mild
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released its May Inflation report on June 12th showing Annual Inflation was down from 3.4% in April to 3.3% in May. (But since we calculate it to two digits, it was actually 3.36% in April and 3.27% in May.) On a Seasonally adjusted basis, monthly inflation in May was ZERO. Bloomberg is making a big deal about that, but what does it really mean? As, I've been saying, beginning in the May-June timeframe inflation typically moderates for the Summer months and then gets really low (or even negative) in the 4th quarter. And that is what is happening. Double Whammy Day The overnight markets were down expecting more inflation so when the report was released … [Read more...]
Inflation Destroys More Than Money
Everyone knows that inflation hurts consumers by raising the cost of their purchases and that it hurts those on fixed incomes the most because although their costs are rising, their income isn't. In addition to impoverishing individuals, inflation has several less obvious ramifications. Perhaps the most insidious and detrimental consequence of inflation is the facilitation of more wars. How Inflation Promotes War Prior to the advent of fiat currencies, if a Monarch wanted to wage war, he had to figure out a way to pay for it. If his treasury wasn't large enough to pay for the means of war, the king would have to either raise taxes, or borrow the money, either way there were limits to how … [Read more...]
April Inflation Sparks Market
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released its April Inflation report on May 15th showing Annual Inflation was down from 3.5% in March to 3.4% in April. (but since we calculate it to two digits, it was actually 3.48% in March and 3.36% in April.) The markets took this as a good sign and the NYSE rallied 157.68 points resulting in a 0.87% gain. The NASDAQ did even better gaining 231.21 points or 1.40%. Prior to the gain, our NASDAQ ROC was flashing a warning signal. But we did say that we needed to wait for confirmation before selling. Unadjusted monthly inflation was 0.65% in March which moderated sharply to "only" 0.39% in April. Typically inflation is highest in the first … [Read more...]
March Inflation Causes Market Concern
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI report released on April 10th, showed Annual Inflation was up from 3.2% in February to 3.5% in March. (but since we calculate it to two digits, it was actually 3.15% in February and 3.48% in March.) Monthly inflation was 0.62% in February and 0.65% in March. Typically inflation is highest in the first quarter of the year, so these numbers are a bit high but not that unusual. In March 2023 monthly inflation was 0.33%, so annual inflation jumped in 2024. Mr. Market didn't like the news because it drastically reduced the chances of a rate cut anytime soon. So, stocks fell on the release. The NYSE opened at 18,171.20 and that was the high for the … [Read more...]
February 2024 Inflation Up Slightly
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI report released on March 12th, Annual Inflation was up from 3.1% in January 3.2% in December. (but since we calculate it to two digits, it was actually 3.09% in January and 3.15% in February.) Monthly inflation was 0.54% in January and 0.62% in February. Typically inflation is highest in the first quarter of the year, so these numbers are not that unusual. In January 2023 monthly inflation was 0.80%, so annual inflation was lower in 2024 but monthly inflation was "only" 0.56% in February 2023 so annual inflation increased in 2024. The BLS's Seasonally Adjusted Monthly rate for January was 0.3%, and 0.4% in February. As you can see … [Read more...]
January 2024 Annual Inflation Down Despite High Monthly Inflation
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI report released on February 13th, Annual Inflation was down to 3.1% in January from 3.4% in December. (but since we calculate it to two digits, it was actually 3.09% in January and 3.35% in December.) Monthly inflation was -0.10% in December and 0.54% in January. But since inflation is highest in the first quarter of the year, these numbers are not unusual. But in January 2023 monthly inflation was 0.80%, so annual inflation is lower in 2024. The BLS's Seasonally adjusted monthly rate for January was 0.30%, the same as December 2023. As you can see from our MIP projection from last month, inflation was at the high end of our range. … [Read more...]
Have Wages Kept Up with Inflation in 2023?
There seems to be a perennial debate about whether wages are keeping up with inflation. The media in particular loves to stoke this particular divide. We delved into this a bit in our article Not All Prices Have Inflated Since 1964 in which we showed that although wages in nominal terms haven't kept up for the "median" worker, but the "average" worker is doing better. This indicates that many workers are better off than in 1964, but not all (on a purely inflation-adjusted basis). Despite the numbers, purchasing power in many technology sectors has multiplied so many times and quality has increased so drastically that even though overall prices multiplied ten-fold, things like Televisions … [Read more...]
December Inflation Increases to 3.35%
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI report released on January 11th, Annual Inflation was up to 3.4% in December from 3.1% in November. (but since we calculate it to two digits, it was actually 3.35%.) Monthly inflation was -0.04% in October, -0.20% in November, and -0.10% in December, But inflation is almost always low to negative in the fourth quarter of the year, so these numbers are not unusual. The BLS's Seasonally adjusted monthly rate for December was actually a positive 0.30% indicating that even though unadjusted was negative, it was not as negative as usual (making the adjusted numbers higher). The stock market was expecting another decline in inflation like … [Read more...]
