There are three major categories of problems that can cause bank instability. In his article "A Tale of Two Crises" Bloomberg's John Authers tells us that they are: a liquidity crisis- When customers pull their money out. a solvency crisis- When borrowers can fail to repay their loans. a confidence crisis- When shareholders sell the bank's stock, sending their shares down making it harder to raise money. And beyond true crises, changes in economic and financial conditions can attack their profits — which is bad for shareholders and ultimately might tend to imperil everyone connected to the bank. Understanding a Liquidity Crisis One of the primary causes of a Liquidity … [Read more...]
Central Banks Respond Differently to the Banking Crisis
Central bankers don't like surprises, so they tend to communicate among themselves in order to coordinate their response to every new crisis. And this week there was a wave of responses to the combination banking crisis and still high inflation. The Cause Raising interest rates from near zero to over 4.5% in a short period of time puts stress on banks' liquidity as it causes an "inverted yield curve", i.e., short-term interest rates are higher than the locked-in long-term rates. Thus banks are paying out more (on short-term deposits) than they are receiving (on long-term mortgages). The Effect So you would think the Central Bankers would be prepared to deal with the … [Read more...]
Stock Market Ignores Lower Inflation in February
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that Annual Inflation fell from 6.41% in January to 6.04% in February Monthly inflation was 0.56% for February 2023, compared to 0.91% in 2022. Despite the significant drop in inflation the market was more concerned with bank failures so, there was no inflation rally. February Inflation Summary: Annual Inflation fell from 6.41% to 6.04% CPI Index rose from 299.170 to 300.840 Monthly Inflation for February was 0.56% Next release April … [Read more...]
January 2023 Inflation “Disappointing”
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that Annual Inflation fell from 6.45% in December 2022 to 6.41% in January 2023. Monthly inflation was much higher than expected for January, resulting in a much smaller loss than most experts predicted. With 0.84% monthly inflation for January set to fall out of the calculations, the opportunity for a significant drop in inflation was possible. Monthly inflation for both November and December was negative so it seemed possible that January inflation could be moderate, but instead, it came in at a whopping 0.80%, just 0.04% lower than January 2022, resulting in a minuscule 0.04% decline in the annual inflation rate. January Inflation … [Read more...]
Falling Inflation is Good for Stocks
Historically, Stocks tend to soar in years when inflation is falling. But typically, inflation doesn't fall until the fed-funds rate rises above the current inflation rate... The last data we have as of this writing is that inflation was 6.45% in December, and the FED funds rate was 4.1%. That is still a significant gap. But inflation is already falling. Monthly inflation began a dramatic slowdown last July. Monthly inflation has fallen by 80% over that timeframe (bringing annual inflation down by 33%). At this point, the majority of our annual inflation occurred during the first six months of 2022. January through June of 2022 had an average of 1.02% inflation per month. The second … [Read more...]
Inflation Falls Again in December
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that Annual Inflation fell from 7.11% in November to 6.45% in December 2022. This was down from a peak of 9.06% in June 2022. Monthly inflation was negative (Disinflation) for November at -0.10% and December at -0.31%. This is fairly typical for the fourth quarter, which is traditionally negative. Monthly inflation for 2022 was lower than in November 2021, so December Annual inflation fell. It is important to remember that although the inflation RATE is falling... prices are still going up, i.e., prices are still 6.5% higher than they were a year ago. A decline from 7.5% to 6.5% is similar to a car going from 75 mph to 65 mph... it is still … [Read more...]
Inflation Down in November
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that Annual Inflation fell from 7.75% in October to 7.11% in November 2022. This was down from a peak of 9.06% in June 2022. Monthly inflation was negative (Disinflation) for November at -0.10%. This is fairly typical for the fourth quarter, which is traditionally negative. Monthly inflation for 2022 was lower than in November 2021 so Annual inflation fell. It is important to remember that although the inflation RATE is falling... prices are still going up, i.e., prices are still 7% higher than they were a year ago. A decline from 7.75% to 7.11% is similar to a car going from 77 mph to 71 mph... it is still speeding forward just not quite as … [Read more...]
November Producer Price Index Declines from 2021 to 2022
Typically when we think of inflation, we look at the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which measures prices affecting Consumers. Today we are going to look at the November Producer Price index. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), "the Producer Price Index (PPI) measures the average change over time in the prices domestic producers receive for their output. It is a measure of inflation at the wholesale level that is compiled from thousands of indexes measuring producer prices by industry and product category." The index is published monthly, but unlike the CPI, the PPI is subject to adjusting/correcting over the following four months after publication. The CPI is considered … [Read more...]
Gasoline Prices vs. Wages Over Time
Historical Gasoline Prices in Pictures-- I thought it would be fun to look at some pictures of gasoline prices in days gone by. Of course, we have to remember that salaries were much lower in those days as well. Inflation doesn't affect all prices equally. Let's look at how Gasoline Prices and Wages relate since the 1920s. In 1924 my grandfather probably paid around 21 cents a gallon for gasoline. The average wage was about 62.6¢/hour. But that was just the average, a unionized carpenter in Boston would have made a whole Dollar an hour. Imagine paying 15½ cents for a gallon of gasoline. Although we don't have an exact date for these pictures, we can estimate the … [Read more...]
Annual Inflation Retreats in October
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that Annual Inflation for October 2022, fell from 8.20% to 7.75% Monthly inflation at 0.41% was still very high for a month in the fourth quarter, which is traditionally negative or at least very close to zero. But although high, October 2022 monthly inflation was still lower than in October 2021. So… Annual inflation for the 12 months ending in October 2022 fell to 7.75%. This was down from 8.20% in September 2022. Inflation Summary: Annual Inflation fell from 8.20% to 7.75% CPI Index rose from 296.808 to 298.012 Monthly Inflation for October was 0.41% Next release is December 13th October Annual Inflation was 7.75%. Jan. … [Read more...]