Updated February 2014 We all whine and complain about it but usually there isn't much we can do about inflation. About our only choice is to vote with our feet, we can move our funds from one doomed currency to another. This is what the Forex industry is all about. The only other alternative to fiat currency is hard assets like gold. As I've said many times, the value of our money is based on the supply and demand fundamentals. Right now the demand for U.S. dollars is falling and the supply is rising because the government has the ability to create them out of "thin air". Based on basic Economics 101 this means that the value of the U.S. Dollar will continue to fall as long as the … [Read more...]
No Way Out
By Doug Casey, Casey Research I really dislike sounding inflammatory. Saying that things are going to go terribly wrong runs a risk of being classed with those who think the world will end in December 2012 because of something Nostradamus or the Bible says, or because that’s what the Mayan calendar predicts. This is different. In the real world, cause has effect. Nobody has a crystal ball, but a good economist (there are some in existence, though very few) can definitely pinpoint causes and estimate not only what their immediate and direct effects are likely to be (that’s not hard; a smart kid can usually do that) but the indirect and delayed effects. In the first half of this … [Read more...]
What is Debtflation?
By David Galland, Managing Editor, The Casey Report We recently received the following comment in our Q&A Knowledge Base. Investors should be prepared to sell gold as either increased inflation expectations or doubts around debt sustainability force a sharp increase in US Treasury bond yields. Simply put, in an environment of high real interest rates, the allure of gold could disappear as quickly as it did in the early 1980s when Paul Volcker took control of the Federal Reserve. My response… First off, I want to congratulate the reader for trying to anticipate the conditions that might mark the end of the gold bull market. Because, make no mistake, the gold bull market will come … [Read more...]
Moving into Bonds: From Frying Pan to Fire
By David Galland and Kevin Brekke, Casey Research The other day, I came across an article that said, while individuals may be moving their money out of equities, they have been moving into bond funds – and in a big way. It’s called jumping from the frying fan into the fire. Based on my experience as a co-founder of a mutual fund group, I can tell you that if there is one sure thing in this world, it’s that when investors rush en masse into an investment category, it is invariably at almost exactly the wrong time to do so. Is that the case with today’s rush into bonds? To shed some light on that point, Casey Research Switzerland-based editor Kevin Brekke volunteered to look into … [Read more...]
Understanding the FED
Protect yourself from the common and misleading myths about the U.S. Federal Reserve Over the years, occasionally I have received comments from subscribers about the SHAM of the FED and how U.S. Taxpayers are being swindled. And although I knew the truth of it, I was unable to shed any new light on the subject. Today our friends at Elliottwave have provided a new resource that will teach you everything you wanted to know – plus some things you might wish you didn't – about the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank. Since the Federal Reserve Act of 1913, the Federal Reserve Bank has been a secret, quasi-government agency. It's time to pull back the curtain on the Federal Reserve system. In … [Read more...]
Deflation or Inflation: Can Helicopter Ben Come to the Rescue?
Why the Fed Cannot Stop Deflation Countless people say that deflation is impossible because the Federal Reserve Bank can just print money to stave off deflation. If the Fed’s main jobs were simply establishing new checking accounts and grinding out banknotes, that’s what it might do. But in terms of volume, that has not been the Fed’s primary function, which for 89 years has been in fact to foster the expansion of credit. Printed fiat currency depends almost entirely upon the whims of the issuer, but credit is another matter entirely. What the Fed does is to set or influence certain very short-term interbank loan rates. It sets the discount rate, which is the Fed’s nominal near-term … [Read more...]
Deflation: The Elephant in the Room
We've had almost a Trillion dollars in "stimulus" and/or "Quantitative Easing" or whatever you want to call it and as of the end of August 2010 we still only have 1.15% annual inflation... Down from 1.24% last month. And the trend has been steadily decreasing for all of 2010. Back in 2009 we had a period of deflation bottoming at -2.10% in July of 2009 and the stimulus kicked the inflation rate from its deflationary moorings all the way up to 2.72% in December of 2009. But as we can see from the chart below the effect didn't last long... and the inflation rate has steadily declined for all of 2010 so far. In the light of all that stimulus, the biggest credit bubble in history is … [Read more...]
Stimulus Up But Inflation at 1.15% and Falling?
By Tim McMahon, editor Consumer prices have risen at a meager 1.15% over the last 12 months-- despite massive stimulus and growing commitments from the U.S. government. So what's going on? Deflationary forces are strengthening. They are being spurred on by high unemployment rates creating an overwhelming need for consumers to liquidate their assets for cash. As this new economic phase is becoming a reality, expectations are compounding the effects as explained in recent commentary from the world's largest technical analysis firm. "The economy is moving into a critical new phase, an outright deflation in which 'prices fall because people expect falling prices.' Obviously, this … [Read more...]
Complimentary 90-page Deflation eBook from Robert Prechter Available Now
New Deflation eBook Available Now: Our friends at Elliott Wave International have just released a complimentary 90-page ebook on deflation from Robert Prechter. As deflation fears are back in the news and most likely also on your mind, it's more important than ever to -- at very least -- give the deflationary scenario a serious look. After all, deflation could pose a serious risk to your wealth if it occurs, and no one has explained the potential threats -- and how you can survive them -- better than Prechter. Even if government stimulus and out-of-control spending have you more convinced than ever that inflation is dead ahead, we recommend that you take a look at Prechter's reasonable … [Read more...]
The Housing Bubble Revisited
What really makes a bubble? Are bursting bubbles inflationary or deflationary? What lessons can we learn from history? In this article Justice Litle addresses these issues. ~Tim McMahon, editor By Justice Litle, Editorial Director, Taipan Publishing Group A burst housing bubble is a harbinger of deflation, not inflation, due to massive debts incurred and massive savings lost. To really get your head around the inflation debate, it helps to understand the late great housing bubble. To that end, this description seems as informative as they come: The smell of Boom was everywhere. It caught even those who were not particularly attracted by it. A former president of Freddie Mac, … [Read more...]
