The cause and effect are both commonly called "inflation" which can cause some confusion. Typically, "Inflation" is defined as "an increase in the cost of a basket of goods over time". Technically this should be called "Price Inflation" which is often the result of "Monetary Inflation". As we have discussed in "What is Inflation", monetary inflation can also be referred to simply as "inflation." Inflation is a common phenomenon that affects millions of households every year. Let's look at how it affects various types of individuals. Inflation and Income A fixed income combined with rising prices decreases the ability of people to purchase the same number of goods. As inflation … [Read more...]
Deflation or Inflation? Yes.
Deflation or Inflation? By John Mauldin I am frequently asked in meetings or after a speech whether I think we will have inflation or deflation. "Yes," I readily reply, trying hard not to smirk, as the questioner tries to digest the answer. And while my answer is flippant, it's also the truth, as I do expect both outcomes. Following the obligatory chuckle from the rest of the group comes a follow-up request for a few more specifics. And they are that I expect we will first see deflation and then inflation, but the key is the timing. Recessions are Deflationary Recessions are by definition deflationary. Deleveraging events are also deflationary. A recession accompanied by deleveraging … [Read more...]
4 Practical Ways to Keep Your Small Business Profitable during a Recession
Small Business Big Profits Recession is a word that strikes fear into the heart of many small business owners and investors, and for good reason. Reports indicate that the number of failing small businesses drastically increased during the recent recession, and many are still in the process of recovering from insolvency due to the economic backlash. Although a recession certainly decreases the overall demand for products because consumers have less money to spend, there are certain companies in almost every industry that find a way to not only survive but thrive during these harsh financial times. Creatively Outdo Competitors to Increase Profits When people have less money to spend they … [Read more...]
Why Deficits Are Politically Convenient
Terry Coxon of Casey Research discusses the effects of deficits on the economy and politics. ~editor Deficits: How Far to the Wall? By Terry Coxon, Casey Research Decades of manipulation by the Federal Reserve (through its creation of paper money) and by Congress (through its taxing and spending) have pushed the US economy into a circumstance that can't be sustained but from which there is no graceful exit. With few exceptions, all of the noble souls who chose a career in "public service" and who've advanced to be voting members of Congress are committed to chronic deficits, though they deny it. For political purposes, deficits work. The people whose wishes come true through the … [Read more...]
What Happens to Gold if We Enter a Recession or Depression?
By Jeff Clark, Casey Research Mayan prophecies aside, many of the senior Casey Research staff believe that economic, monetary, and fiscal pressures could come to a head this year. The massive buildup of global debt, continued reckless deficit spending, and the lack of sound political leadership to reverse either trend point to a potentially ugly tipping point. What happens to our investments if we enter another recession or – gulp – a depression? Here's an updated snapshot of the gold price during each recession since 1955. … [Read more...]
“Darkest Days” for the Economy: Behind Us, or Just Ahead?
Economic skies forecast: slowly clearing, heavy rain returning, or cyclone? Many people still talk about a "recovery," or at worst only see a possible double-dip recession. But what if the mistake was to think the economy was only in a recession in the first place? It can't "double-dip" when it never truly recovered: "The respite following the 2009 stock market low is not a new expansion. It has failed to improve housing sales, barely caused employment to budge, and hasn't managed -- despite the unprecedented manufacture of new Fed money -- to get the total supply of credit back above its 2008 high." Elliott Wave Theorist, Sept. 2011 Indeed, the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing … [Read more...]
Recession Watch- Where are We Now?
Recessions are generally caused by a shrinking money supply and/or an increase in demand for cash. In the last two years the M1 money supply has grown by 40% and still the economy is weak, the unemployment rate is high... basically no recovery. Why? In this article Terry Coxon discusses the slow recovery and how it compares to previous recessions. ~Tim McMahon, editor Economically Sleepwalking Terry Coxon, Senior Economist Until the Great Depression of the 1930s, the average length of a recession was 21 months. The misery that began in October 1929 lasted five times that long – 105 months.... the government pursued an array of policies to prevent prices from falling, which had the … [Read more...]
Raw Materials Price Inflation Skyrockets– Manufacturing Collapses
According to the May report of the Richmond FED-- the index of manufacturing activity fell 16 points from a positive level of 10 in April to a declining (negative level) of -6 in May thus indicating that manufacturing actually contracted during the time period. During this same time the cost of raw goods required to manufacture goods increased dramatically. Inflation was the monthly equivalent of an average annual rate of 6.12% in May the highest monthly reading since December 1993 up 27% from April's equivalent of 4.81%. As I've said many times 5% annual inflation will stifle the economy 6% is pretty devastating. Manufacturing activity in negative territory is a sign of a recession … [Read more...]
Hyperinflation and Double-Dip Recession Ahead
An interview with Karen Roche of The Gold Report Economic recovery? What economic recovery? Contrary to popular media reports, government economic reporting specialist and ShadowStats Editor John Williams reads between the government-economic-data lines. "The U.S. is really in the worst condition of any major economy or country in the world," he says. In this exclusive interview with The Gold Report, John concludes the nation is in the midst of a multiple-dip recession and headed for hyperinflation. The Gold Report: Standard & Poor's (S&P) has given a warning to the U.S. government that it may downgrade its rating by 2013 if nothing is done to address the debt and deficit. … [Read more...]
US Economic Situation “Intractable”
Over the last few years we've often mentioned the situation that the government has gotten itself into and wondered how it was ever going to be able to get itself out. The speculation has been that a period of hyperinflation might be the only option. In today's article David Galland editor of the Casey report discusses the economic bind the government is in and just what options it has. ~Tim McMahon, editor By David Galland, The Casey Report In describing the current situation in these United States, and in many of the world’s other superpowers, we here at Casey Research have often used the word “intractable”… as in, “impossible to resolve.” While that may not be technically … [Read more...]