Deflation Again

MIP-Reality 4-17-15

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the inflation statistics for the month of March on April 17th. Once again we have slight deflation on an Annual basis. The Consumer Price index (CPI-U) at the end of March 2015 was 236.119 while it was 236.293 at the end of March 2014. So overall prices are just a hair lower a full year later.  That means there was -0.07% inflation and as we all know negative inflation on an annual basis is called Deflation. Because the BLS rounds all their results to one decimal place they have rounded it to -0.1% , which is what they said it was in January as well. Rounded to two places it is -0.09% for January, -0.03% for February and -0.07% for March which … [Read more...]

Living in a Free-Lunch World

It seems that every once in a while, we awake from a deep sleep with what appears to us to be a brilliant revelation. Unfortunately, if we don't write them down they are usually forgotten by morning. Sometimes in the light of day they turn out to be totally ridiculous... but occasionally they actually do turn out to be a flash of inspiration. I had one such experience a few weeks ago. Of late I have been increasingly disturbed by the growing gulf between Liberals and Conservatives. It seems that they can't find any common ground and for all intents and purposes might be living on entirely different worlds. My revelation, although perhaps not earth-shattering, was to me at least … [Read more...]

Deflation Watch: Key Economic Measures Turn South

Profits Peter Out

Last month (12 months ending January 2015)  inflation dipped below zero resulting in an annual deflation of  -0.09% rounded to -0.1% by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The 12 months ending in February bounced up slightly to -0.03 but the BLS was able to round that up to Zero thus giving the impression that the deflation was over. But our Moore Inflation Predictor is saying otherwise. It indicates that we could be in for as much as 6 more months of deflation. And now the analysts at  Elliott Wave International have found that several key economic indicators are also turning Bearish and confirming our deflation prediction. These key indicators include: Corporate profits, Retail and Food … [Read more...]

A Very Weak Economic Recovery

Employment_vs_population

By Elliott Wave International Editor's note: The following article is excerpted from Elliott Wave International's new free report, "U.S. Economy Still on Life Support." For years, the government has manipulated its unemployment statistics to line up with its claim that the economy has recovered strongly. But that's not ALL the government is hiding from you. From foodstuffs, to crude oil prices, to GDP, the numbers and analysis reported by the government and mainstream financial press are misleading at best, downright falsehoods at worst. Get the hidden truth -- click here to read the full two-part report now >> For years, the government has been manipulating its unemployment … [Read more...]

Deflation Almost Zero

Annual Inflation Chart

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the inflation statistics for the month of February on March 24th. According to the official numbers there was neither inflation nor deflation for the 12 months ending in February. Technically that wasn't exactly correct. The Consumer Price index (CPI-U) in February 2014 was 234.781 and in February 2015 it was 234.722. So actually there was -0.03% inflation and as we all know negative inflation on an annual basis is called "the big D" or Deflation. However, since the BLS rounds all their results to one decimal place they have rounded it to zero, that is prices are essentially the same as one year ago.  Now before you send me nasty-grams saying … [Read more...]

Deflation Days are Here Again

Falling Inflation = Deflation

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the Consumer Price Index (CPI-U) data today for the month of January.  The verdict was that inflation had fallen rapidly from 0.76% in December to a slightly deflationary -0.09% for the 12 months ending in January. This is the first time since 2009 that we have seen Annual deflation although there were several times during 2014 that we saw monthly deflation. Monthly deflation (annual disinflation) means that prices are slightly lower than they were last month but still higher than a year ago, which typically happens a few times every year (generally in the 4th quarter), but this year prices began falling during the summer, indicating … [Read more...]

Updated Inflation Adjusted Gasoline Price Chart

Inflation Adjusted Gasoline Prices

With the recent drop in gasoline prices perhaps you have begun to wonder exactly how close to historical lows  are we? If so we have updated our famous Inflation Adjusted Gasoline Price Chart. It shows where we stand on an inflation adjusted basis. Lowest Inflation Adjusted Price of Gasoline was  $1.46 in 1998 Back in 1918 gasoline was $0.25 a gallon and by 1932 prices had fallen to 18 cents a gallon! But as we all know over the last 100 years the purchasing power of the dollar has fallen drastically so in order to get the true picture we can’t just say that the lowest price of gas was 18 cents per gallon, we  need to adjust the price for inflation. When adjusting for inflation there are … [Read more...]

Annual Inflation Below 1%

Annual_Inflation_chart

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released their monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on Friday January 16th for December and for the first time since 2009 reported annual inflation below 1% (although we calculated October 2013 at 0.96%). The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December was 234.812 down from November’s  236.151 which was also down from 237.433 for October. This resulted in a monthly decrease in prices of -0.57% and an annual inflation rate of 0.76%. Overall energy on a “seasonally adjusted” basis was down -4.7% for the month and  -10.6% on an unadjusted basis for the entire year.  Fuel oil fell -7.8%  for the month (adjusted) and a whopping -19.1% annually. Gasoline was … [Read more...]

Bureau of Labor Statistics: Inflation Down

Annual_Inflation_chart_sm

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released their monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on Wednesday December 17th for November and reported lower inflation. The CPI for November was 236.151 down from 237.433 for October. This resulted in a monthly decrease in prices of -0.54% and an annual inflation rate of 1.32% down from 1.66% in October. View the chart and read the full commentary on the current annual inflation rate. Although the FED has been targeting a 2% annual inflation rate, rates are currently much lower and have often been considerably higher than 2% as well. The FED has hit their 2% target a total of 6 times out of more than 300 data points. If we count all the … [Read more...]

Crude Oil and Gold

Oil Priced in Gold2

Because inflation decreases the value of of money, in order to have a “yard stick” of constant value it is necessary to use the inflation adjusted price when we consider the price of a commodity like Oil. Here at InflationData we have provided a variety of charts of the inflation adjusted price of commodities like Oil, Gasoline, Electricity, Natural Gas, Stock Market, Housing Prices, Education Costs and much more. But each of these requires you to rely on potentially flawed inflation statistics generated by some outside agency or government. If that agency has an agenda other than accuracy your cost estimates could be flawed. But there is an alternative and that is to compare your … [Read more...]