By David Galland, Casey Research At the height of its late 2005 rally, natural gas in the U.S. was selling for just over $16/MMBtu, 350% higher than today’s price of $3.56. The oil/gas ratio, now over 18, is an all-time high… suggesting that natural gas is dirt cheap. So, it’s a buy, right? In a phrase, not exactly. According to a recent report by Natural Gas Intelligence, U.S. natural gas available for production “has jumped 58% in the past four years, driven by improved drilling techniques and the discovery of huge shale fields in Texas, Louisiana, Arkansas and Pennsylvania, according to a report issued Thursday by the nonprofit Potential Gas Committee (PGC).” According to the … [Read more...]
Deflation: Micro vs. Macro
Deflation By Joshua Burnett If you’re anything like me, one of the problems you run into when trying to convince someone that the hyperinflation scenario will occur is an argument that revolves around us currently being in a deflationary period. People (and those involved with the economy and stock market especially) have a hard time seeing looming hyperinflation (that might occur as soon as a year and a half away) when what they’re currently seeing is… deflation. But wait a second; how in the wide world of sports are we seeing deflation when we’ve been printing money like our lives depend on it? Let’s return to market fundamentals, and the ever-present difference between macro and … [Read more...]
What if They Stop Buying Our Debt?
By Doug Hornig, Senior Editor, Casey Research “I have always depended on the kindness of strangers,” said Blanche DuBois, in the final words of the play "A Streetcar Named Desire." Well, don’t we all. Many citizens probably still cling to the old saw that public debt doesn’t matter because “we owe it to ourselves.” Wrong. Debt always matters. And as for whom we owe it to, it is a lot of kind (or, at least, not yet unkind) strangers. As recently as 1970, foreign holders of U.S. debt were essentially non-existent. But their slice of our obligation pie has steadily increased, especially over the past two decades, until now foreign governments and international investors hold about 35% … [Read more...]
Healthcare Is Killing America
by Bud Conrad, Editor, The Casey Report Healthcare is the biggest segment of our economy. In the debate over who should pay for what or, increasingly, for whom, most people don't stop to understand just how large a portion of our society's money is dedicated to healthcare. For some perspective, as a share of GDP, the U.S. spends about twice that of other advanced nations. This is an important reason why the U.S. is increasingly uncompetitive in global manufacturing. It is, for instance, the most important factor (besides poor management) that General Motors and Chrysler are going bankrupt. Going forward, the situation is guaranteed to get worse. The Obama administration is committed … [Read more...]
How do Gold Stocks Perform in a Depression?
Traditional wisdom has it that Gold performs well in times of financial distress. Also Gold is considered an inflation hedge... but what if Deflation wins? In this insightful article Jeff Clark answers exactly that question. ~ Tim McMahon, editor Gold Stocks in a Depression By Jeff Clark, Editor, BIG GOLD What if deflation wins? While we think the odds are strongly stacked against it, particularly given the government’s furious pace of money printing, the prudent investor understands – and respects – the time-tested adage, “Nothing is guaranteed.” So while our chips sit squarely on the spot marked “inflation,” what will happen to gold stocks if we’re wrong? … [Read more...]
Gold is Still Money
The following article is excerpted from a brand-new eBook on gold and silver published by Robert Prechter, founder and CEO of the technical analysis and research firm Elliott Wave International. -- Tim McMahon, editor Bob Prechter: Gold is Still Money By Robert Prechter, CMT Have you ever traveled abroad and taken a look at the local currency and wondered how the citizens of that country could take seriously what looks like “Monopoly money?” I’ve got news for you: You’re using the same stuff. Monopoly money is the money over which some government has a monopoly. It is the currency of the realm only because the state makes it illegal to use any other type. … [Read more...]
Inflation is Not Coming…It Has Arrived!
By Jon Herring Don’t be deluded into thinking that inflation “might be coming” in the future and that once you see the signs you can protect yourself. Inflation is already here. And if you wait too long to take precautions, this silent thief will most certainly steal your wealth and savings. You must act NOW if you wish to protect what you have worked so hard for. Take the right actions today, and you can not only insure your wealth against erosion by inflation… you can generate life-changing profits as well. First, it is important to have a proper understanding of inflation. Most people believe that the definition of inflation is rising prices. This is not true. The definition of … [Read more...]
Tax Revenues Tanking
By David Galland, Managing Editor, The Casey Report While everyone else has been focused on the banks’ stress tests and how much government is spending to bail out troubled “too big to fails,” a disturbing trend on the other side of the equation is now emerging: how much (or rather, how little) the U.S. government is receiving in tax revenues. After combing through the past 25 editions of the “Monthly Treasury Statement of Receipts and Outlays of the United States Government,” which is compiled and published by the Treasury Department’s Financial Management Service, we created the following chart. … [Read more...]
Building a Gold Portfolio with Gold Stocks
Editor's Note--In the article Is Gold really a good Inflation Hedge? I said, Gold is actually a "crisis hedge." So it should be performing extremely well with all the uncertainty in the markets right now. Well the Crisis is far from over and Gold is still a prudent investment. -- Tim McMahon, editor Gold Stocks – the Best Strategy for Portfolio Building by Jeff Clark, Editor of BIG GOLD October 27, 2008 was the gold mining sector’s Black Monday, the day nearly every stock hit rock bottom. Hindsight makes it plain they got caught in the violent deleveraging that sucked down every equities market in the world. The broader markets were of course making year-to-date lows at the … [Read more...]
How High will Gold Get?
By Jeff Clark, Editor, BIG GOLD Gold isn’t going to $2,000 an ounce. Before you gag on your coffee or suffer chest pains, allow me to explain. We’re about eight years into the bull market, and gold has breached the $1,000 level twice and has spent weeks trading above the old high of $850. Some observers are now saying that gold’s pretty much had its day and that once the recession is over, it will retreat for good. However, the four-digit gold price we’ve seen so far is with no price inflation to speak of, no effects of the atrocious increase in the money supply, and despite a rising dollar. What happens to gold when each of those pictures gets turned upside down – high … [Read more...]
