The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released their monthly Consumer Price Index report on June 12th 2019, for the 12 months through May 2019.
Annual Inflation is Down
- Annual inflation in May was 1.79% down from 2.00% in April and 1.86% in March.
- CPI Index was 256.092 up from 255.548 in April and 254.202 in March.
- Monthly Inflation for May was 0.21%, April was 0.53%, March was 0.56%, May 2018 was 0.42%.
- Next release July 11th
- Quantitative Tightening (QT) continues check it out here.
- What is Quantitative Tightening?
Annual inflation for the 12 months ending in May was 1.79% (i.e. below the FED target of 2.00%) down from 2.00% in April. But still above the 1.52% of February. March was 1.86%. Inflation peaked at 2.95% in July 2018.
According to the BLS commissioner’s report, “The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.1 percent in May on a seasonally adjusted basis after rising 0.3 percent in April, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 1.8 percent before seasonal adjustment.”
Since the peak in July 2018 the inflation rate began trending down from the top of the downward sloping channel toward the midline but March and April displayed a counter-trend rally with it moving back toward the top of the channel. May, however, had the inflation rate falling back below toward the mid-line of the channel. Read the full commentary here.
Current Inflation Chart
If we look at the shorter term chart we can see that over the last ten years there hasn’t been a decisive trend in either direction. As a matter of fact it looks more like it has gotten less volatile and is settling down in the middle of the road at the 2.00% FED target. Is it possible that after 100 years the FED has finally gotten the hang of managing inflation? Probably not, but…
Federal Reserve Actions
The Federal Reserve took a more active part in 2018 than it had in recent years both in raising interest rates and in eliminating the debt it acquired during its Quantitative Easing thus began its Quantitative Tightening (QT). QT continued throughout May despite its previous proclamations that it was going to follow a more easy money policy . See more information on Quantitative Tightening.
Quantitative Tightening (QT) Begins
Seasonally Adjusted Inflation Table
From the table above we can see that on a monthly Seasonally adjusted basis most items were actually negative. Used Cars and Trucks were the biggest losers at -1.4%. On an annual basis apparel is down -3.1% while food away from home is up 2.9%
See our Moore Inflation Predictor to see our current projections.
Not Seasonally Adjusted Monthly Inflation Rates
See: Monthly Inflation Rate for more information and a complete table of Unadjusted Monthly Rates.
Not Seasonally Adjusted Annual Inflation (by Category)
|All Items less Food and Energy||2.0%|
|Used Cars and Trucks||0.3%|
|Medical Care Services||2.8%|
Regional Inflation Information
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics also produces regional data. So if you are interested in more localized inflation information you can find it here.
Food and Energy Breakdown
The BLS publishes an index entitled “All items Less Food and Energy” which often causes people some confusion. It doesn’t mean they stopped including food and energy in the Consumer Price Index. It just means that they have broken them out so you can compare their increase to other components. For more info see What is Core Inflation?
The misery index as of June 2019 (based on the most recent official government inflation and unemployment data for the 12 months ending in May) is at 5.39% down from 5.60% in April.
It had reached a low of 5.32% in February 2019. But it was 6.87% in July 2018 and 7.44% in February 2017. [Read More…]
NYSE Rate of Change (ROC)©
Unfortunately, after generating a buy signal in March the market has lost a bit of ground (less than 1%) but this puts the index and the moving average right on top of each other. So rather than getting a decisive cross we are getting mixed signals. This is very rare. Since 1990 it has never happened on a cross from below zero. The only similar situation happened in 2000 as the index moved from above zero to test the moving average and then began a series of failed tests ending in 2003. At this point we are not yet in that situation but cautious optimism is warranted.
See the NYSE ROC for more info.
NASDAQ Rate of Change (ROC)©
Hold Signal! NASDAQ- ROC is currently below the moving average.
The ANNUAL rate of return for the NASDAQ ROC rebounded sharply in March to test its moving average… unfortunately it failed the test and remains below the moving average.
See NASDAQ ROC for more.
You Might Also Like:
- What is Quantitative Tightening?
- What is Quantitative Easing?
- How Does Inflation Affect Foreign Exchange Rates
- Oil Price Inflation Charts and Tables Updated
- Health Insurance Inflation
- Are Deflationary Forces Taking Hold Again?
- Gold as an Investment
Read more on UnemploymentData.com.
- Finding Fulfillment in Your Career
- Could Landscape Architecture Be the Career for You?
- 9-to-5 Freedom! 4 Careers that Don’t Keep You behind a Desk
- How to Remain Productive During Your Time out of Work
- Starting Your Own Business and Keeping It Successful
From Financial Trend Forecaster
- U.S. Develops New “Humanitarian” Missile That Doesn’t Kill People
- U.S.-China Trade War: Who will Win?
- Is Saudi Arabia Still an 800 Pound Gorilla
- Merger Mania: The World’s Largest Oil Company And Petrochemical Company Merge
- The $32 Trillion Push To Disrupt The Entire Oil Industry
- Will EV’s Cause Peak Oil Demand?
From Elliott Wave University
- Is War Good for Stocks?
- The Long-Term Message from the VIX
- Is the Falling Trade Deficit Good for Stocks?
- NASDAQ Signal Has Only Occurred 15 Times In Last 42 Years
- Is Banning “Short-Selling” a Solution?
- Traders Should Stay Optimistically Cautious
- 4 Hidden Car Costs
- Buying and Selling Ranch Land: A Beginner’s Guide
- 4 Tips to Cover the Bills When Your Disability Keeps You Home
- Investments You’ll Thank Yourself for in Twenty Years
- 4 Strategies for Improving Your Business’s Credit Score
- Managing Your Money: 5 Personal Finances Tips for Age 30 and Up
- Savvy Ways to Save For Retirement
- Plan for the Unexpected: 4 Ways to Prepare for a Financial Emergency
From Your Family Finances