By Jeff Clark, Casey Research Inflation is a natural consequence of loose government monetary policy. If those policies get too loose, hyperinflation can occur. As gold investors, we'd like to know if the precious metals would keep pace in this extreme scenario. Hyperinflation is an extremely rapid period of inflation, but when does inflation (which can be manageable) cross the line and become out-of-control hyperinflation? Philip Cagan, one of the very first researchers of this phenomenon, defines hyperinflation as "an inflation rate of 50% or more in a single month," something largely inconceivable to the average investor. Hyperinflation has One Root Cause While there can be … [Read more...]
What is Quantitative Easing?
Is Quantitative Easing Money Printing? Quantitative Easing is often referred to as "money printing" or a way for the government to increase the money supply. According to Wikipedia, quantitative easing is different from the typical method whereby governments buy treasury debt to increase the money supply. In QE1 when the market was panicked, and banks didn't want to buy government bonds, the central bank implemented "quantitative easing" by purchasing relatively worthless financial assets (like mortgage backed securities) from banks and giving them new electronically created money. So this is straight forward money printing compared to the more round about traditional method. Thus … [Read more...]
What Happens to Gold if We Enter a Recession or Depression?
By Jeff Clark, Casey Research Mayan prophecies aside, many of the senior Casey Research staff believe that economic, monetary, and fiscal pressures could come to a head this year. The massive buildup of global debt, continued reckless deficit spending, and the lack of sound political leadership to reverse either trend point to a potentially ugly tipping point. What happens to our investments if we enter another recession or – gulp – a depression? Here's an updated snapshot of the gold price during each recession since 1955. … [Read more...]
Inflation Adjusted Gold vs Stocks vs Bonds
Recently our good friends at Casey research published the following chart comparing the inflation adjusted Gold returns to stocks and bonds for the period 1971 through the present. From this chart we can see that as bonds fell during the late 1970's gold rose equivalently and stocks were basically flat. During the 1980's bonds rose and gold fell while while stocks rose slightly. During the 1990's stocks rose sharply gold fell and Bonds were volatile but basically flat to slightly up. During the 2000's gold was up sharply, stocks were volatile and bonds were pretty flat. … [Read more...]
Is Gold Backwardation Now Permanent?
Its Weight in Gold: The Real Prices of Things By Keith Weiner, Casey Research Worldwide, an incredible tower of debt has been under construction since President Nixon's 1971 default on the gold obligations of the US government. His decree severed the redeemability of the dollar for gold and thus eliminated the extinguisher of debt. Debt has been growing exponentially everywhere since then. Debt is backed with debt, based on debt, dependent on debt and leveraged with yet more debt. For example, today it is possible to buy a bond (i.e., lend money) on margin (i.e., with borrowed money). The time is now fast approaching when all debt will be defaulted on. In our perverse monetary system, … [Read more...]
The Fed Resumes Printing
By Bud Conrad, Casey Research The Federal Reserve recently announced important policy changes after its Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. Here are the three most important takeaways, in its own words: The Committee decided today to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and currently anticipates that economic conditions – including low rates of resource utilization and a subdued outlook for inflation over the medium run – are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate at least through late 2014. The Committee judges that inflation at the rate of 2 percent, as measured by the annual change in the price index for … [Read more...]
How Global Financial Developments are Affecting the Price of Gold
Let’s face it. With the US economy facing the bitter consequences of extravagance and unscrupulous spending, it has become quite difficult for the US to manage both its public and private debts now. In this phase of post recession hangover and economic meltdown, the U.S. federal government has bumped up against its permitted borrowing limit. According to Alison Fraser, director of the Roe Institute for Economic Policy Studies, America’s debt just crossed $15 trillion, which means presently, the amount owed by the United States government to the world, is equivalent to the amount produced by the American economy per year. All these factors lead to higher prices and intensifying inflation … [Read more...]
Another Way to Measure Inflation
In this article Jeff Clark shows us how to think about prices and purchasing power in a different way. The true measure of inflation is in relation to how much stuff your money can buy and in reality it is also related to the return you can get on your investment. If you can get 10% on your money a 5% inflation rate isn't so bad. But if you own any assets and they are only appreciating at 1% (or worse yet depreciating) and prices are increasing at a 5% rate the value of your assets are declining (i.e. they are being insidiously and secretly being stolen by the government printing presses). In this article Jeff will give you another way to look at the issue of prices and perhaps open your … [Read more...]
Its Weight in Gold: The Real Prices of Things
Fiat currencies By Charles Vollum, Casey Research Fiat currencies the world over are being manipulated by central banks, which is distorting asset and commodity prices. Successful investing requires that investors have a good idea of what things cost and what they are really worth – and using the world's oldest and most stable form of money, gold, to compare prices is one way to get that insight. To that end, below is a sampling of current prices measured in grams or milligrams of gold. Price comparisons are against prices as of June 10. Fiat Currency Watch: Change from: Price in Gold Week ago Year ago USD 20.3 mg 0.7% -20.4% CAD 20.8 … [Read more...]
Sheltering Cash From Inflation
When Inflation heats up it can ravage your cash holdings and so of course that is why a portion of your portfolio needs to be in inflation hedges. But a side effect of inflationary forces is the added volatility it adds to markets. Navigating this added volatility involves having flexibility in your portfolio and flexibility comes from cash or cash equivalents. Unfortunately, cash equivalents are big losers during periods of high inflation. So what do you do? Fortunately, there is a solution that will provide liquidity and prevent the major part of the purchasing power erosion due to inflation. Plus provide good returns in the mean time. In today's report the author of "Keep What You … [Read more...]
