The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released its June Inflation report on July 11th showing Annual Inflation was down from 3.3% in May to 3% in June. (But since we calculate it to two digits, it was actually 3.27% in May and 2.97% in June.) On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, monthly inflation in June was 0.03%. The Cleveland FED had been predicting that the inflation rate would come in at 3.12% so inflation was considerably lower than expectations. Markets took this as a good sign hoping for rate cuts possibly in September and rallied. The biggest beneficiaries were small cap stocks which have been beaten down by higher interest rates. The FED has been hinting that they would … [Read more...]
May Inflation Surprisingly Mild
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released its May Inflation report on June 12th showing Annual Inflation was down from 3.4% in April to 3.3% in May. (But since we calculate it to two digits, it was actually 3.36% in April and 3.27% in May.) On a Seasonally adjusted basis, monthly inflation in May was ZERO. Bloomberg is making a big deal about that, but what does it really mean? As, I've been saying, beginning in the May-June timeframe inflation typically moderates for the Summer months and then gets really low (or even negative) in the 4th quarter. And that is what is happening. Double Whammy Day The overnight markets were down expecting more inflation so when the report was released … [Read more...]
August 2023 Inflation Up Sharply
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI report released on September 13th, Annual Inflation increased from 3.2% in July to 3.7% in August. (but more precisely, it was from 3.18% to 3.67%.) Monthly inflation went from 0.19% in July to 0.44% in August. August 2023 Inflation Summary: Annual Inflation rose from 3.18% to 3.67% CPI Index rose from 305.691 to 307.026 Monthly Inflation for August was 0.44%, July was 0.19% and June was 0.32%. Next release October … [Read more...]
July Annual Inflation- Up Slightly
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI report released on August 10th, Annual Inflation increased from 3% in June to 3.2% in July. (but more precisely, it was from 2.97% to 3.18%.) Monthly inflation was 0.25% for May 2023, 0.32% in June, and 0.19% in July. July 2023 Inflation Summary: Annual Inflation rose from 2.97% to 3.18% CPI Index rose from 305.109 to 305.691 Monthly Inflation for July was 0.19%, down from 0.32% in June Next release is September … [Read more...]
What is the Difference between the CPI-U and the CPI-W
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a widely used economic indicator that measures changes in the prices of goods and services over time. It measures the average change overtime in the prices paid by urban consumers for a market basket of consumer goods and services. Being an index, a date was chosen to be equivalent to 100, and as the price of the goods in the "basket" increased the index increases as well. The percentage difference between the index a year prior and the current index is the inflation rate. Having a reliable index is an essential tool for policymakers, economists, and individuals alike to assess inflation and make informed decisions. However, there are different variations … [Read more...]
June 2023- Inflation Falls to 3%
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI report released on June 13th, Annual Inflation declined from 4.0% in May to 3% in June. (but more precisely, it was from 4.05% to 2.97%.) Monthly inflation was 0.25% for May 2023, and 0.32% in June. June 2023 Inflation Summary: Annual Inflation fell from 4.05% to 2.97% CPI Index rose from 304.127 to 305.109 Monthly Inflation for June was 0.32% Next release August 10th 2023 Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2022 7.48% 7.87% 8.54% 8.26% 8.58% 9.06% 8.52% 8.26% 8.20% 7.75% 7.11% 6.45% 2023 6.41% 6.04% 4.98% 4.93% 4.05% 2.97% What … [Read more...]
May Inflation Falls to 4%
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI report released on June 13th, Annual Inflation declined from 4.9% in April to 4.0% in May. (but according to our calculations, it was from 4.93% to 4.05%.) Monthly inflation was 0.25% for May 2023, compared to 1.10% in May 2022. May 2023 Inflation Summary: Annual Inflation fell from 4.93% to 4.05% CPI Index rose from 303.363 to 304.127 Monthly Inflation for April was 0.25% Next release July … [Read more...]
Inflation Less Than Experts Predict in March
Annual inflation PLUNGED in March according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI report released on April 12th. Monthly inflation was 0.33% for March 2023, compared to 1.34% in March 2022. This resulted in a 1% drop in Annual inflation. But despite the significant drop in inflation, the stock market did not rally. Instead, the NYSE lost a few points, and the NASDAQ lost just over 100 points. March 2023 Inflation Summary: Annual Inflation fell from 6.04% to 4.98% CPI Index rose from 300.840 to 301.836 Monthly Inflation for March was 0.33% Next release May … [Read more...]
Inflation Down in November
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that Annual Inflation fell from 7.75% in October to 7.11% in November 2022. This was down from a peak of 9.06% in June 2022. Monthly inflation was negative (Disinflation) for November at -0.10%. This is fairly typical for the fourth quarter, which is traditionally negative. Monthly inflation for 2022 was lower than in November 2021 so Annual inflation fell. It is important to remember that although the inflation RATE is falling... prices are still going up, i.e., prices are still 7% higher than they were a year ago. A decline from 7.75% to 7.11% is similar to a car going from 77 mph to 71 mph... it is still speeding forward just not quite as … [Read more...]
Annual Inflation Retreats in October
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that Annual Inflation for October 2022, fell from 8.20% to 7.75% Monthly inflation at 0.41% was still very high for a month in the fourth quarter, which is traditionally negative or at least very close to zero. But although high, October 2022 monthly inflation was still lower than in October 2021. So… Annual inflation for the 12 months ending in October 2022 fell to 7.75%. This was down from 8.20% in September 2022. Inflation Summary: Annual Inflation fell from 8.20% to 7.75% CPI Index rose from 296.808 to 298.012 Monthly Inflation for October was 0.41% Next release is December 13th October Annual Inflation was 7.75%. Jan. … [Read more...]
