Bring Out Your Dead Last week, the price of gold again broke below its new base at $1,200, and the U.S. stock market was again under strong pressure, due to a confluence of fears, most of which point to a deflationary double-dip. The fears were fanned by disappointment in the just-released early quarterly results, by the latest CPI reports that show inflation continuing to moderate, and by yet another poll revealing faltering consumer confidence. The market is also spooked, no doubt, by notes from the latest Fed Beige Book that make it clear that the Fed is (finally) beginning to understand the entrenched and endemic nature of this crisis. While the notes are written in shamanic … [Read more...]
The Bear Market and Depression: How Close to the Bottom?
By Elliott Wave International While many people spend time yearning for the financial markets to turn back up, a rare few have looked back in time to compare historical markets with the current situation -- and then delivered a clear-eyed view of the future informed by knowledge of the past. One who has is Robert Prechter. When he thinks about markets and wave patterns, he goes back to the 1700s, the 1800s, and -- most tellingly for our time now -- the early 1900s when the Great Depression weighed down the United States in the late 1920s and early 1930s. With this large wash of history in mind, he is able to explain why he thinks we have a long way to go to get to the bottom of this bear … [Read more...]
20 Questions with Robert Prechter: Signs Point to Deflation
June 30, 2010 Signs point to Deflation By Elliott Wave International The following article is an excerpt from Elliott Wave International’s free report, 20 Questions With Deflationist Robert Prechter. It has been adapted from Prechter’s June 19 appearance on Jim Puplava’s Financial Sense Newshour. Jim Puplava: Bob, I want to pick up from last September. Since then we've had several quarters of positive economic growth. Asset classes rose substantially, CPI turned positive, gold has hit a new record, oil is close to $80 a barrel. I guess a lot of our listeners would like to know, have these events altered your views on deflation? … [Read more...]
The Primary Precondition of Deflation
By Robert Prechter, CMT Elliott Wave International The following was adapted from Bob Prechter’s 2002 New York Times and Amazon best seller, Conquer the Crash – You Can Survive and Prosper in a Deflationary Depression. Deflation requires a precondition: a major societal buildup in the extension of credit (and its flip side, the assumption of debt). Austrian economists Ludwig von Mises and Friedrich Hayek warned of the consequences of credit expansion, as have a handful of other economists, who today are mostly ignored. Bank credit and Elliott wave expert Hamilton Bolton, in a 1957 letter, summarized his observations this way: In reading a history of major depressions in the U.S. … [Read more...]
There’s No Quick and Easy Fix for This Economy
By Adam Hewison, President INO.com Regardless of what others might say, there is no quick fix for the economy. To illustrate this point, a friend of mine recently sent me a chart which I would like to share with you. This charts shows that we may be going into a prolonged period of no growth overall in the stock market. The NASDAQ peaked at 5,132.52 on March 10th, 2000. The NASDAQ market is in many ways more important than the DOW, and should be considered more of a leading indicator. If that is truly the case, then we have been in a bear market for the last eight years. … [Read more...]
Men Staring at Goats
What Hollywood can teach us about the Washington, DC establishment … and Obamanomics By Rob Carlson On November 3, 2009, a new movie opened in theatres, starring one of America’s favorite sons -- George Clooney. In the film, Men Who Stare At Goats, the government gathers and trains a group of people with “special” mental capabilities. These men of rare ability are to be trained as Top Secret… Psychic Soldiers. The film was, ostensibly, “based in a top-secret true story.” Employing their special “abilities,” these “Jedi” warrior monks would pass through walls, and see into the future. They would fight – not with guns, but with their minds. Directing their gaze at the enemy, they … [Read more...]
Healthcare Is Killing America
by Bud Conrad, Editor, The Casey Report Healthcare is the biggest segment of our economy. In the debate over who should pay for what or, increasingly, for whom, most people don't stop to understand just how large a portion of our society's money is dedicated to healthcare. For some perspective, as a share of GDP, the U.S. spends about twice that of other advanced nations. This is an important reason why the U.S. is increasingly uncompetitive in global manufacturing. It is, for instance, the most important factor (besides poor management) that General Motors and Chrysler are going bankrupt. Going forward, the situation is guaranteed to get worse. The Obama administration is committed … [Read more...]
How High will Gold Get?
By Jeff Clark, Editor, BIG GOLD Gold isn’t going to $2,000 an ounce. Before you gag on your coffee or suffer chest pains, allow me to explain. We’re about eight years into the bull market, and gold has breached the $1,000 level twice and has spent weeks trading above the old high of $850. Some observers are now saying that gold’s pretty much had its day and that once the recession is over, it will retreat for good. However, the four-digit gold price we’ve seen so far is with no price inflation to speak of, no effects of the atrocious increase in the money supply, and despite a rising dollar. What happens to gold when each of those pictures gets turned upside down – high … [Read more...]
Three Myths of Deflation and Recession
This article is part of a syndicated series about deflation from market analyst Robert Prechter, the world’s foremost expert on and proponent of the deflationary scenario. For more on deflation and how you can survive it, download Prechter’s FREE 60-page Deflation Survival eBook, part of Prechter’s NEW Deflation Survival Guide. The following article was adapted from Robert Prechter’s NEW Deflation Survival eBook, a free 60-page compilation of Prechter’s most important teachings and warnings about deflation. By Robert Prechter, CMT Myth 1: “War Will Bail Out the Economy” … [Read more...]
Why the Bailout Won’t Work
By Andrew Gordon The economy is now staring eyeball-to-eyeball with an activist U.S. government. It will legislate, reform, supervise, bully, give out money like cotton candy and get concessions in return. It will encourage technological development in environmental and other “future” industries. It will seek sources of energy other than the oil and gas we get from Mexico, Canada and OPEC. And it will put generous sums of money behind these initiatives. The Obama government emphatically does not want banks to sit on the money they get from the government. Nor do they want it to go to shareholders in the form of dividend payments. This is why I look for more companies to cut their … [Read more...]
