The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released its August 2025 Inflation report on September 11th, 2025. The report showed that Annual Inflation was up at 2.9%. Calculated to two digits, it was 2.70% in July and 2.92% in August. The market is 90% certain that the FED will lower rates on September 17th despite rising inflation. August’s Inflation Prediction: At 2.92%, August's inflation numbers came at our “likely high”. Most economists had projected 2.9% as well. Go here to view our current MIP projection. … [Read more...]
July Inflation Report
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released its July 2025 Inflation report on August 12th, 2025. The report showed that Annual Inflation was unchanged at 2.7%. Calculated to two digits, it was 2.67% in June and 2.70% in July. So, although the BLS says it was unchanged it was actually up VERY slightly. The market responded positively with the NYSE up 226.57 points. July’s Inflation Prediction: At 2.70%, July inflation numbers came in between last month’s “likely low” and “extreme low” projections, which is about as good as we could hope for. Go here to view our current MIP projection. … [Read more...]
June Inflation Up Again
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released its June 2025 Inflation report on July 15th, 2025. The report showed that Annual Inflation was up from 2.4% in May to 2.7% in June. Calculated to two digits, it was really 2.35% in May and 2.67% in June. Economists were predicting higher inflation, of 2.6% while our MIP was projecting an "Extreme High" of 2.63%. The NYSE responded by falling about 1% on the day, on fears that this might postpone the FED's rate cuts even further. June's Inflation Prediction: At 2.67%, June's inflation numbers came in slightly above last month's "extreme high" projection. … [Read more...]
May 2025 Inflation Up Slightly
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released its May 2025 Inflation report on June 11th, 2025. The report showed that Annual Inflation was up from 2.3% in April to 2.4% in May. Calculated to two digits, it was really 2.31% in April, and 2.35% in May (not even 1/10th% up). And still below the 2.39% in March. Economists were predicting higher inflation, so the slight increase was basically a non-event. Economists were predicting higher inflation, so the slight increase was basically a non-event. May's Inflation Prediction: At 2.35%, May inflation numbers came in at last month's "extreme low" projection, indicating that inflation could have been worse. … [Read more...]
April Inflation Down Slightly
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released its April 2025 Inflation report on May 13th, 2025. The report showed that Annual Inflation was down from 2.4% in March to to 2.3% in April. Calculated to two digits, it was 2.39% in March and 2.31% in April. Although this month's numbers look good, there is a distinct possibility that low inflation won't last. (See this month's MIP). April's Inflation Prediction: At 2.31%, April inflation numbers came in between last month's "likely low" and "extreme low" projections. … [Read more...]
March Inflation Down Significantly, But Will it Last?
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released its March 2025 Inflation report on April 10th, 2025. The report showed that Annual Inflation was down from 2.8% in February to 2.4% in March. Calculated to two digits, it was 2.82% in February and 2.39% in March. Although this month's numbers look very good there is a surprise hidden in the monthly numbers. (See this month's MIP). Inflation Prediction: This is the second month in a row that actual inflation came in slightly below our "extreme low" projection. We had projected an "extreme low" of 2.42% for March, but it came in at 2.39%. Of course, had we been rounding to one digit as the BLS does, it would have been right on the nose of … [Read more...]
BLS: February 2025- Inflation Down
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released its February 2025 Inflation report on Wednesday, March 12th, 2025. The report showed that Annual Inflation was down from 3.0% in January to 2.8% in February. Calculated to two digits, it was 3.00% in January, and 2.82% in February. On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, monthly inflation was 0.65% in January 2025, and 0.44% in February. This was down from 0.62% in February 2024. Inflation Prediction: As you can see from our MIP projection from last month, February's Annual inflation at 2.82% is just below our predicted Extreme Low of 2.88%. … [Read more...]
BLS January 2025 Inflation Report
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released its January 2025 Inflation report on Wednesday February 12th 2025, showing Annual Inflation was up from 2.9% in December to 3.0% in January. This looks like a 0.1% increase. (But since we calculate it to two digits, it was 2.89% in December and 3.00% in January, which means the actual increase was 0.11%.) On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, monthly inflation was 0.04% in December and a whopping 0.65% in January 2025 this was up from 0.54% in January 2024. Inflation Prediction: As you can see from our MIP projection from last month, January's Annual inflation at 3.00% is just above our predicted Extreme High. … [Read more...]
BLS releases its December 2024 Inflation report
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released its December 2024 Inflation report on Wednesday January 15th 2025, showing Annual Inflation was up from 2.7% in November to 2.9% in December. This looks like a 0.2% increase. (But since we calculate it to two digits, it was 2.75% in November and 2.89% in December, which means the actual increase was 0.14%.) On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, monthly inflation was 0.04% in December but annual inflation rose because December 2023 was a negative -0.10%. Inflation Prediction: As you can see from our MIP projection from last month, December's Annual inflation at 2.89% is just a hair below our predicted Extreme High of 2.90%. … [Read more...]
November 2024 Inflation Up Slightly
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released its November Inflation report on Wednesday December 11th showing Annual Inflation was up from 2.6% in October to 2.7% in November. (But since we calculate it to two digits, it was actually 2.60% in October and 2.75% in November but for some reason they rounded down rather than rounding up.) On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, monthly inflation was -0.05% in November but annual inflation rose because November 2023 was a negative -0.20%. Inflation Prediction: For a change, the "experts" were right this month with their prediction of 2.7% Inflation for November maybe that is because they agreed with our Mip "Most Likely" prediction for a … [Read more...]