The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released its February 2025 Inflation report on Wednesday, March 12th, 2025. The report showed that Annual Inflation was down from 3.0% in January to 2.8% in February. Calculated to two digits, it was 3.00% in January, and 2.82% in February. On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, monthly inflation was 0.65% in January 2025, and 0.44% in February. This was down from 0.62% in February 2024. Inflation Prediction: As you can see from our MIP projection from last month, February's Annual inflation at 2.82% is just below our predicted Extreme Low of 2.88%. … [Read more...]
Would DOGE Dividend Checks Stoke Inflation?
With all the potential savings DOGE is uncovering some people are suggesting that some of those saving be rebated to taxpayers. Others are saying that doing that would be inflationary in the same way that Biden's stimulus checks were. In this video, Bob Murphy, Senior Fellow of the Mises Institute looks at the implications of this possible rebate. https://youtu.be/NltFVYom1lc?si=knQzinKc45MuuWv4&t=101 Rothbard's Making Economic Sense Bob's Understanding Money Mechanics … [Read more...]
BLS January 2025 Inflation Report
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released its January 2025 Inflation report on Wednesday February 12th 2025, showing Annual Inflation was up from 2.9% in December to 3.0% in January. This looks like a 0.1% increase. (But since we calculate it to two digits, it was 2.89% in December and 3.00% in January, which means the actual increase was 0.11%.) On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, monthly inflation was 0.04% in December and a whopping 0.65% in January 2025 this was up from 0.54% in January 2024. Inflation Prediction: As you can see from our MIP projection from last month, January's Annual inflation at 3.00% is just above our predicted Extreme High. … [Read more...]
BLS releases its December 2024 Inflation report
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released its December 2024 Inflation report on Wednesday January 15th 2025, showing Annual Inflation was up from 2.7% in November to 2.9% in December. This looks like a 0.2% increase. (But since we calculate it to two digits, it was 2.75% in November and 2.89% in December, which means the actual increase was 0.14%.) On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, monthly inflation was 0.04% in December but annual inflation rose because December 2023 was a negative -0.10%. Inflation Prediction: As you can see from our MIP projection from last month, December's Annual inflation at 2.89% is just a hair below our predicted Extreme High of 2.90%. … [Read more...]
November 2024 Inflation Up Slightly
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released its November Inflation report on Wednesday December 11th showing Annual Inflation was up from 2.6% in October to 2.7% in November. (But since we calculate it to two digits, it was actually 2.60% in October and 2.75% in November but for some reason they rounded down rather than rounding up.) On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, monthly inflation was -0.05% in November but annual inflation rose because November 2023 was a negative -0.20%. Inflation Prediction: For a change, the "experts" were right this month with their prediction of 2.7% Inflation for November maybe that is because they agreed with our Mip "Most Likely" prediction for a … [Read more...]
September Inflation Falls
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released its September Inflation report on Wednesday October 10th showing Annual Inflation was down from 2.5% in August to 2.4% in September. (But since we calculate it to two digits, it was actually 2.53% in August and 2.44% in September.) On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, monthly inflation in August was 0.08% and it increased to 0.16% in September but that was still lower than last September's 0.25% so the annual inflation rate fell. Gold Prices: As you can see on the above hourly chart, Gold peaked just over $2680, late last month, shortly after we published the chart below saying that, "On an inflation-adjusted basis gold is near … [Read more...]
FED Interest Rates
The Fed funds rate is, effectively, the price of money. When it changes, much like dropping a rock into the water, the impact ripples out in all directions.— Greg McBride, Bankrate Chief Financial Analyst On Wednesday, September 18th, the FED reduced interest rates for the first time in four years. Mr. Market has been anticipating this cut all year and it finally happened. Last month FED Chairman Powell hinted at a rate cut at this FOMC meeting and at the time most experts believed that the cut would only be 25 basis points or ¼%. But, once lower-than-expected August inflation numbers were released on September 11th, the market began clamoring for a 50 basis point cut, or even a 75 basis … [Read more...]
July 2024 Annual Inflation Falls Again
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released its July Inflation report on Wednesday August 14th showing Annual Inflation was down from 3% in June to 2.9%. (But since we calculate it to two digits, it was actually 2.97% in June and 2.89% in July.) On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, monthly inflation in June was 0.03% and 0.12% in July. So despite monthly inflation being slightly higher in July 2024 than in June, it was lower than July 2023 (@0.19%) so Annual Inflation fell. Economists had been predicting that the inflation rate would come in at 3.0% so inflation was lower than expectations, but Mr. Market didn't celebrate much (only increasing about 1/2%) but the rally continued upward on … [Read more...]
Inflation Causes Inequality
By Lenart Wagemans Many claim the problem with fractional reserve banking is that it loans money into existence. It does, but under normal circumstances, the money created by commercial banks disappears when loans are repaid or defaulted on, which therefore doesn’t create a permanent inflation of the money supply. Government intervention, however, converts temporary money into permanent money through bailouts like the Troubled Asset Relief Program. They purchase loans that would have been defaulted on, preventing the evaporation of credit. When banks hold loans that are at risk of default, they face having to write them off, which would remove this part of the money supply. Bailouts turn … [Read more...]
Annual Inflation Falls Below 3%
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released its June Inflation report on July 11th showing Annual Inflation was down from 3.3% in May to 3% in June. (But since we calculate it to two digits, it was actually 3.27% in May and 2.97% in June.) On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, monthly inflation in June was 0.03%. The Cleveland FED had been predicting that the inflation rate would come in at 3.12% so inflation was considerably lower than expectations. Markets took this as a good sign hoping for rate cuts possibly in September and rallied. The biggest beneficiaries were small cap stocks which have been beaten down by higher interest rates. The FED has been hinting that they would … [Read more...]
