According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI report released on June 13th, Annual Inflation declined from 4.9% in April to 4.0% in May. (but according to our calculations, it was from 4.93% to 4.05%.) Monthly inflation was 0.25% for May 2023, compared to 1.10% in May 2022. May 2023 Inflation Summary: Annual Inflation fell from 4.93% to 4.05% CPI Index rose from 303.363 to 304.127 Monthly Inflation for April was 0.25% Next release July … [Read more...]
Default by Inflation
As long as I can remember, the "boogeyman" of government debt has always been default. This is not an insignificant concern. Over the years, governments HAVE defaulted on their sovereign debt. In the 1700s, corporate debt was seen as more likely to be repaid than government debt. As recently as a year ago, Russia was facing the prospect of default on Eurobonds maturing in 2023 and 2043. According to the following chart by Reuters, 34 governments have defaulted on at least some of their sovereign debt since 1989. The largest defaults were Congo in 2012 and Ukraine in 2015, but there was also Ecuador, Nicaragua, Argentina, Venezuela, Russia, and Pakistan, along with many others. But … [Read more...]
Is There an Optimum Growth Rate of Money?
It is widely held that a growing economy requires a growing money stock because economic growth increases demand for money. Many economists also believe that failing to accommodate the increase in the demand for money leads to a decline in consumer prices. This could destabilize the economy and produce an economic recession or even a depression. Some economists who follow Milton Friedman—also known as monetarists—want the central bank to target the money supply growth rate to a fixed percentage. They hold that if this percentage is maintained over a prolonged period, it will create economic stability. The idea that money must grow to support economic growth implies that money sustains … [Read more...]
Annual Inflation Virtually Unchanged in April
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI report released on May 10th, Annual Inflation declined by 0.1%... but according to our calculations, it was even less than that. The BLS reported a decline from 5% to 4.9%, but when carried to two decimals, it was virtually a rounding error difference. Monthly inflation was 0.51% for April 2023, compared to 0.56% in April 2022. April 2023 Inflation Summary: Annual Inflation fell from 4.98% to 4.93% CPI Index rose from 301.836 to 303.363 Monthly Inflation for April was 0.51% Next release June … [Read more...]
Can the Dollar Retain Its Ultimate Currency Status?”
The following article by Ryan McMaken, author of Breaking Away: The Case of Secession, Radical Decentralization, and Smaller Polities and Commie Cowboys: The Bourgeoisie and the Nation-State in the Western Genre, looks at what makes a global reserve currency and if the U.S. Dollar has what it takes to keep that position. ~Tim McMahon, editor How the Dollar Became the World's Top Global Currency By Ryan McMaken In March 2009, in the midst of a recession, then Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner was pressed to respond on the question of whether or not another currency—possibly the IMF’s special drawing rights (SDRs)—might displace the US Dollar as the dominant global reserve currency. … [Read more...]
What are “Sticky Prices” and Why Do They Matter?
What Is Price Stickiness? Price stickiness, aka. "Sticky prices" are prices that tend not to change very quickly. So, despite costs (or demand) going up, a business with "sticky prices" may not raise its prices for an extended period of time. In other words, sticky prices tend to change slowly despite changing underlying factors. Sticky prices are a key component of Macroeconomic theory. Why wouldn't a business raise prices if its costs are going up? You would think that most products and services would respond to the laws of supply and demand, i.e., when demand goes up, prices quickly follow. Or, when underlying costs rise a business would automatically raise its own prices to maintain … [Read more...]
Inflation Less Than Experts Predict in March
Annual inflation PLUNGED in March according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI report released on April 12th. Monthly inflation was 0.33% for March 2023, compared to 1.34% in March 2022. This resulted in a 1% drop in Annual inflation. But despite the significant drop in inflation, the stock market did not rally. Instead, the NYSE lost a few points, and the NASDAQ lost just over 100 points. March 2023 Inflation Summary: Annual Inflation fell from 6.04% to 4.98% CPI Index rose from 300.840 to 301.836 Monthly Inflation for March was 0.33% Next release May … [Read more...]
The 3 Major Causes of Bank Problems
There are three major categories of problems that can cause bank instability. In his article "A Tale of Two Crises" Bloomberg's John Authers tells us that they are: a liquidity crisis- When customers pull their money out. a solvency crisis- When borrowers can fail to repay their loans. a confidence crisis- When shareholders sell the bank's stock, sending their shares down making it harder to raise money. And beyond true crises, changes in economic and financial conditions can attack their profits — which is bad for shareholders and ultimately might tend to imperil everyone connected to the bank. Understanding a Liquidity Crisis One of the primary causes of a Liquidity … [Read more...]
Central Banks Respond Differently to the Banking Crisis
Central bankers don't like surprises, so they tend to communicate among themselves in order to coordinate their response to every new crisis. And this week there was a wave of responses to the combination banking crisis and still high inflation. The Cause Raising interest rates from near zero to over 4.5% in a short period of time puts stress on banks' liquidity as it causes an "inverted yield curve", i.e., short-term interest rates are higher than the locked-in long-term rates. Thus banks are paying out more (on short-term deposits) than they are receiving (on long-term mortgages). The Effect So you would think the Central Bankers would be prepared to deal with the … [Read more...]
Stock Market Ignores Lower Inflation in February
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that Annual Inflation fell from 6.41% in January to 6.04% in February Monthly inflation was 0.56% for February 2023, compared to 0.91% in 2022. Despite the significant drop in inflation the market was more concerned with bank failures so, there was no inflation rally. February Inflation Summary: Annual Inflation fell from 6.41% to 6.04% CPI Index rose from 299.170 to 300.840 Monthly Inflation for February was 0.56% Next release April … [Read more...]
