Why monetarist theory is flawed Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke really means it this time. He will rescue the economy. Ben S. Bernanke for the first time pledged that the Federal Reserve will buy bonds until the economy gets closer to his goals ... . The central bank yesterday announced its third round of large-scale asset purchases since 2008, with the difference that it didn't set any limit on the ultimate amount it would buy or the duration of the program. ... Bernanke is "going to fight and fight until he sees a real improvement in the economy," said a co-head of global economics research at [a major bank]." He believes quantitative easing can help the economy, so he'll just … [Read more...]
“No QE3″, Retracement Level Stalls Financials
Since financial stocks make up 14% of the S&P 500 Index, it is difficult to sustain a rally without strength in banks and financial services firms. With the Fed and ECB opening up the liquidity fire hydrant in late December 2011, bank stocks experienced another in a series of monster bailout rallies. As outlined below, the Financials Select Sector ETF (XLF) may be poised to give back some gains over the coming sessions based on numerous factors including reduced odds of QE3. Unfortunately in the debt-saddled world we live in, central banks may be the most important driver of asset prices. Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher told reporters after a speech Wednesday: There will be no … [Read more...]
Fed To ‘Hold Off’ On QE 3
We noted extreme levels of optimism earlier today. What could possibly trigger a correction in stocks and commodities? If the Fed fails to signal and/or announce another round of quantitative easing (QE), it would undoubtedly leave the markets disappointed. The Fed uses the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) as a medium to communicate with the markets. It is possible someone at the Fed picked up the phone and said, “We need to temper short-term expectations for another round of QE. Can you help us out?” Friday’s WSJ has an article titled “Fed Holds Off For Now on Bond Buys”. Notice the word “may” is not included. Here is the first paragraph of the article: Federal Reserve officials are waiting … [Read more...]
Has the Fed Started QE3?
By Bud Conrad, Casey Research The Fed surprised the market by extending its policy of 0 to 0.25% Fed funds rate to mid-2013. The way the Fed manages to drive rates lower is to buy Treasuries with newly created money – driving the price up and the rates down. The big question is whether the policy will have a sizeable effect on markets. The chart below shows the historical jump in the Fed’s combined policy tools that were used to lower rates and bail out financial institutions through a variety of programs. These include the big purchase of mortgage-backed securities (MBS) called QE1 and the large purchase of Treasuries called QE2. The point of the extrapolation in the chart is just to … [Read more...]
