Central bankers don't like surprises, so they tend to communicate among themselves in order to coordinate their response to every new crisis. And this week there was a wave of responses to the combination banking crisis and still high inflation. The Cause Raising interest rates from near zero to over 4.5% in a short period of time puts stress on banks' liquidity as it causes an "inverted yield curve", i.e., short-term interest rates are higher than the locked-in long-term rates. Thus banks are paying out more (on short-term deposits) than they are receiving (on long-term mortgages). The Effect So you would think the Central Bankers would be prepared to deal with the … [Read more...]
“No QE3″, Retracement Level Stalls Financials
Since financial stocks make up 14% of the S&P 500 Index, it is difficult to sustain a rally without strength in banks and financial services firms. With the Fed and ECB opening up the liquidity fire hydrant in late December 2011, bank stocks experienced another in a series of monster bailout rallies. As outlined below, the Financials Select Sector ETF (XLF) may be poised to give back some gains over the coming sessions based on numerous factors including reduced odds of QE3. Unfortunately in the debt-saddled world we live in, central banks may be the most important driver of asset prices. Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher told reporters after a speech Wednesday: There will be no … [Read more...]
Its Weight in Gold: The Real Prices of Things
Fiat currencies By Charles Vollum, Casey Research Fiat currencies the world over are being manipulated by central banks, which is distorting asset and commodity prices. Successful investing requires that investors have a good idea of what things cost and what they are really worth – and using the world's oldest and most stable form of money, gold, to compare prices is one way to get that insight. To that end, below is a sampling of current prices measured in grams or milligrams of gold. Price comparisons are against prices as of June 10. Fiat Currency Watch: Change from: Price in Gold Week ago Year ago USD 20.3 mg 0.7% -20.4% CAD 20.8 … [Read more...]
The Long Swim – How the Fed Could Become Insolvent
By Terry Coxon, Editor, The Casey ReportYou’ve seen the proof in real time. Once-dominant industrial companies, e.g., General Motors, can run out of money. The biggest banks, e.g., Bank of America, can run out of money. Even sovereign governments, e.g., Greece, can run out of money. Yes, all those organizations are still limping along, but only after being rescued by other giant institutions, such as the U.S. government, the less unhealthy European governments, the European Central Bank, and the International Monetary Fund. So far, it’s been easy to get rescued. The people who run giant institutions seem to shudder at the thought of other giant institutions being shown up as anything less … [Read more...]
Do Central Banks Move the Markets?
Central Banks are like the giant gorilla of the investment world. Everyone thinks they can do anything they want. But can they? Or are they subject to the laws of the universe just like everyone else? They do wield a lot of clout for a day or so when a new announcement comes out but do they really have a lasting effect on the markets? In this article Mark Galasiewski of Elliott Wave International gives us a look at what the effect of the Central Banks really is. -- Editor Think That Central Banks Move the Markets? Think Again. By Mark Galasiewski The following is excerpted from Elliott Wave International’s Global Market Perspective. Conventional wisdom says that central banks can … [Read more...]
