Many people are confused by the difference between Inflation and the Consumer Price Index. The Consumer Price Index is as its name implies an index, or “a number used to measure change”. The Consumer Price Index (CPI-U) The government chose an arbitrary date to be the base year and set that equal to 100. Currently that date is 1984. (Or more accurately the average of the years 1982-1984) previously the base year was 1967 (they change the base year every once in a while so you don't notice that there has been over 2000% inflation since the start). See Cumulative Inflation Since 1913. Every month the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) surveys prices around the country for a basket of … [Read more...]
What Causes Inflation?
Inflation Cause and Effect I often receive letters from students, that demonstrate a fuzzy understanding of inflation and its causes. Unfortunately, I often get the same type letters from teachers and business people too! It seems that people often confuse the cause of inflation with the effect of inflation and unfortunately the dictionary isn't much help. As you can see in my article What is the Real Definition of Inflation? the modern definition of inflation is "A persistent increase in the level of consumer prices or a persistent decline in the purchasing power of money..." In other words according to this definition inflation is things getting more expensive. But that is … [Read more...]
What is Deflation?
Define Deflation: In common usage deflation is generally considered to be "falling prices". But there is much more to it than that. Often people confuse deflation with disinflation or with Depression (as in "the Great Depression"). These three terms are related but not synonymous. According to Investorwords.com the definition of Deflation is "a decline in general price levels, often caused by a reduction in the supply of money or credit. Deflation can also be brought about by direct contractions in spending, either in the form of a reduction in government spending, personal spending or investment spending. Deflation has often had the side effect of increasing unemployment in an economy, … [Read more...]
What is Core Inflation and Why Doesn’t It Include Food and Energy?
Updated 12/11/2021 I frequently receive this question in one form or another: Why doesn't the government consider food and energy and just tracks core inflation? The core inflation rate is frequently quoted in the popular press, and this gives the general public the impression that the "government" doesn't care about (or track) the rise in the prices of food and energy. Actually, this isn't true. The core inflation rate is simply a component of the overall inflation rate. Economists use it because seasonal factors often skew the inflation rate. For instance, a drought might cause fruit crops to fail, causing fruit prices to rise. But this rise actually has nothing to do with … [Read more...]
Define Inflation: What is Inflation?
What Is the Real Inflation Rate?
I recently received the following question: Please explain to me how my cost of living can increase by 10-15 percent, grocery bills, fuel, energy, clothing, etc. yet my income only increases about 2-3% which typically matches inflation. I have talked to many people about this and a lot of folks feel the same way, how can inflation only be 2-3% when the cost of living keeps going up 4-5 times that number. I am a college student, but only in my first few years so please explain this in basic terms so that I may understand. Thank you tremendously, Jessica This is a common question-- often, it is phrased as "What is the real inflation rate? Who do I believe?" … [Read more...]
Who Does Inflation Hurt Most?
Who does inflation help and who does inflation hurt? When we first think of inflation we assume that it will affect all people equally. After all if everyone is using the same dollars wouldn't everyone be affected equally? The fact of course is that everyone isn't affected equally. Our second assumption might be that the poor would be hurt the worst because they earn minimum wage and everything they buy is getting more expensive. However, if the minimum wage is indexed to inflation they would about break even. So interestingly if the minimum wage earners are also deep in debt inflation actually helps them. The reason for this is that debtors borrow valuable money and the number of … [Read more...]
