By David Galland, Managing Director, Casey Research At any point during the recent negotiations in Washington over the debt, did you seriously think for even a second that the U.S. was about to default? Of course, in time the U.S. government (along with many others) will default. However, they are highly unlikely to do so by decree or even through the sort of legislative inaction recently on display. Rather, it will come about through the time-honored tradition of screwing debtors via the slow-roasting method of monetary inflation. Yet most people still bought into the latest drama put on by the Congressional Players – a troupe of actors whose skills at pretense and artifice might … [Read more...]
Inflation on a 30 Year Mortgage
I recently received the following question: In 1970 I purchased a nice house in the suburbs of Albany, New York for $54,500. Although the price of the home today is well above the inflation rate, I was wondering how the inflated dollars I'm spending on the last few payments has changed over the past 30 years. The mortgage payment has been consistent but I'm paying in inflated dollars, I just don't know how much the value of each dollar has declined in purchasing power. How would I calculate that figure?- John … [Read more...]
What is Debtflation?
By David Galland, Managing Editor, The Casey Report We recently received the following comment in our Q&A Knowledge Base. Investors should be prepared to sell gold as either increased inflation expectations or doubts around debt sustainability force a sharp increase in US Treasury bond yields. Simply put, in an environment of high real interest rates, the allure of gold could disappear as quickly as it did in the early 1980s when Paul Volcker took control of the Federal Reserve. My response… First off, I want to congratulate the reader for trying to anticipate the conditions that might mark the end of the gold bull market. Because, make no mistake, the gold bull market will come … [Read more...]
Video: Bond Issuers Aiming Toward Debt Man’s Curve
By Jason Lureman Thu, 09 Sep 2010 They say a picture is worth a thousand words, so a chart as startlingly clear as our Debt Man's Curve must be worth 10,000 words. EWI analyst Jason Farkas first created and wrote about this parabola that displays different risk levels of bonds in late July 2010. Specifically, the chart plots sovereign, municipal and corporate issuers on the same spectrum. The resulting sharp curve up makes it easier to see why we think that bond issuers are flirting with a bad crash the same way the driver does in Jan and Dean's hit song from the 1960s, "Dead Man's Curve." More recently, Jason recorded this 10-minute video to take his Currency and Interest Rate … [Read more...]
Inflation and Housing Prices
Being "real tangible assets," houses tend to act as inflation hedges. But in recent times they have appreciated by multiples of the inflation rate. This is due more to loose lending practices that to loose monetary policy. In the following article David Galland addresses the current state of housing prices and where they might be headed. ~Tim McMahon, editor Should You Buy a House Now? By David Galland, Managing Editor, The Casey Report Recently, we have had a number of queries about real estate. And no wonder. For starters, real estate prices have come down. Plus, in an environment with next to zero interest rates, the idea of possibly picking up some income-producing property on the … [Read more...]
