By Tim McMahon, Editor Deflation has cropped up at various times throughout the nineteenth and twentieth centuries. Overall since 1913 when the Bureau of Labor Statistics began tracking inflation we have had 22 years that had one or more months when the annual inflation rate was negative (i.e. deflation). Most of those are clumped into larger deflationary periods. The six major deflationary periods are: January 1921 - February 1923 26 months July 1924 - November 1924 5 months July 1926 - November 1933 7 ½ years (with only 5 positive months and 5 zero inflation months.) March 1938 - January 1940 18 months May 1949 - June 1950 … [Read more...]
In Inflation Everything is More Expensive
Not Even Crack Heads Can Escape this Economy By Charles Delvalle Everyone’s having a hard time in this economy, even crack heads. We’ve all been talking about how wicked inflation has been over the past two years. Apparently Gus Young Jr. of West Palm Beach wasn’t listening. In a fit of rage, he destroyed a DVD case and a Plexiglass counter after his friendly neighborhood drug dealer told him that the price of a rock of crack cocaine had gone from $10 to $20. And get this: on the way to jail, he shared his displeasure of the inflated crack prices with officers. Let this be a lesson that nothing escapes the reach of inflation. Not milk, butter, or in this case, crack. This … [Read more...]
Three Myths of Deflation and Recession
This article is part of a syndicated series about deflation from market analyst Robert Prechter, the world’s foremost expert on and proponent of the deflationary scenario. For more on deflation and how you can survive it, download Prechter’s FREE 60-page Deflation Survival eBook, part of Prechter’s NEW Deflation Survival Guide. The following article was adapted from Robert Prechter’s NEW Deflation Survival eBook, a free 60-page compilation of Prechter’s most important teachings and warnings about deflation. By Robert Prechter, CMT Myth 1: “War Will Bail Out the Economy” … [Read more...]
What is so bad about Deflation?
By Tim McMahon The average annual inflation rate dropped again this month. At a monthly rate of -1.01% October's drop was touted as "the largest monthly drop on a seasonally adjusted basis since 1947 when the Bureau of Labor Statistics first started tracking seasonal adjustments" and it brought the annual inflation rate off its highs and down to a more reasonable 3.66%. November's monthly rate was almost twice as large at but it was hardly mentioned in the news. This month the annual inflation rate has dropped down virtually zero-- 0.09% with a monthly drop slightly larger than the one two months ago. Just a few months ago the annual inflation rate was 5.6% and now it is … [Read more...]
Take action in a Deflationary Environment
Editor’s Note: In the following article Robert Prechter shows you how to prepare for a deflation. By Robert Prechter, CMT The ultimate effect of deflation is to reduce the supply of money and credit. Your goal is to make sure that it doesn’t reduce the supply of your money and credit. The ultimate effect of depression is financial ruin. Your goal is to make sure that it doesn’t ruin you. Many investment advisors speak as if making money by investing is easy. It’s not. What’s easy is losing money, which is exactly what most investors do. They might make money for a while, but they lose eventually. Just keeping what you have over a lifetime of investing can be an achievement. That’s … [Read more...]
Making Preparations and Taking Action in Today’s Deflationary Environment
Editor’s Note: In the following article Robert Prechter shows you how to prepare for a deflation. By Robert Prechter, CMT The ultimate effect of deflation is to reduce the supply of money and credit. Your goal is to make sure that it doesn’t reduce the supply of your money and credit. The ultimate effect of depression is financial ruin. Your goal is to make sure that it doesn’t ruin you. Many investment advisors speak as if making money by investing is easy. It’s not. What’s easy is losing money, which is exactly what most investors do. They might make money for a while, but they lose eventually. Just keeping what you have over a lifetime of investing can be an achievement. That’s … [Read more...]
Why the Bailout Will Result in Hyperinflation
Editor's Note- In this article Olivier Garret, CEO of The Casey Report shows us the massive extent of the bailout compared to every major Government expenditure from the Revolutionary War and the Louisiana Purchase to the Iraq War in inflation adjusted terms and the results are pretty scary. Based on the magnitude of the bailout expenditures it appears Hyperinflation is already baked into the cake. You thought WWII and Iraq were expensive? You "ain't seen nothin' yet. The current bailout is larger than all the major government expenditures since the revolutionary war combined. And lest you think that is because the bailout is comparing inflated dollars against more valuable (and … [Read more...]
Disinflation – What is it?
Definition of Disinflation By Tim McMahon To fully understand disinflation we need to first understand inflation. The reasons this is trickier than it first appears is because the word inflation is actually used in two different contexts. The most common usage of the word inflation means rising prices. Commonly "consumer prices" so when you go to the gas station or the grocery store and the things you buy cost more than last month (or when it is really bad even more than last week) this is more precisely defined as "price inflation". The second meaning of the word inflation is actually the original meaning. And that is an increase in the money supply that causes "price … [Read more...]
Will the $800 Billion Bailout Cause Massive Inflation?
Last month I said that the simulated M3 measure of the money supply was indicating that deflation was in the works. See M3 is Back and Predicting Deflation. So how will a massive injection of almost $1 Trillion dollars affect the money supply? If you have read any of the articles on inflation on this site you will realize that the primary cause of price inflation is monetary inflation. In other words, if the government cranks up the printing presses the price of almost everything goes up. For more information see What is Inflation? and Inflation Cause and Effects. So you would think that it is only obvious that a massive injection of money like the recent $800 Billion bailout … [Read more...]
Inflation Moderate? Who Does The Fed Think They Are Fooling?
By Charles Delvalle Just when you thought reality was setting in at the Fed, you get reminded how silly that idea really is. I say that because lately the Fed has been talking about how bad inflation is, and how they need to be ‘vigilant’ so that inflation expectations don’t deteriorate. If you talk to anyone on the street, I bet they have noticed that prices are higher for just about everything. I don’t know about you, but I sure think that inflation expectations are already pretty bad. So, you would think they’d be really hawkish about inflation at the meeting. Maybe that’ll happen at another meeting, because it sure didn’t happen at the one on Wednesday. … [Read more...]
