OECD International Inflation Rates

On Friday August 11^th the OECD published the Annual Inflation Rates rates of its member countries plus several other countries as well. Noticeably absent is Argentina. The OECD included the following footnote:

Data for Argentina are currently not available due to the state of emergency in the national statistical system declared by the government of Argentina on 07 January 2016. As a consequence, Argentina is not included in the calculation of the G-20 aggregate. The policy regarding the inclusion of Argentina will be reconsidered in the future depending on further developments.

In November 2015, Mauricio Macri was elected in Argentina under the platform of reforming the government of Argentina. One of his first actions was to restore the professional independence of INDEC, the statistical office. He charged it with drawing up a new, accurate inflation index. It has now been a little over a year since this new index was launched. It shows that inflation in greater Buenos Aires in the 12 months to April at 27.5%.

Excluding Argentina the countries with the highest annual inflation rates so far in 2017 were:

Highest Inflation Among OECD Countries

Highest to Lowest	Jan-2017	Feb-2017	Mar-2017	Apr-2017	May-2017	Jun-2017	2017 Average
Turkey	9.2	10.1	11.3	11.9	11.7	10.9	10.85
Mexico	4.7	4.9	5.4	5.8	6.2	6.3	5.55
Latvia	2.9	3.3	3.4	3.4	2.8	3.0	3.18
Estonia	2.6	3.4	2.8	3.2	3.3	2.9	3.03

As we can see in the table above inflation in the World today is extremely low with only Turkey in the double digits. Mexico is in the 5% range and about half of Turkey. In addition, only Latvia and Estonia are above 3%. Looking at the Non-OECD countries we can see that the situation is very similar.

Highest Inflation Rates in Non-OECD Countries

Highest to Lowest	Jan-2017	Feb-2017	Mar-2017	Apr-2017	May-2017	Jun-2017	2017 Average
South Africa	6.8	6.5	6.1	5.2	5.3	5.0	5.82
Colombia	5.5	5.2	4.7	4.7	4.4	4.0	4.75
Russian Federation	5.0	4.6	4.2	4.1	4.1	4.4	4.40
Brazil	5.4	4.8	4.6	4.1	3.6	3.0	4.25
Indonesia	3.5	3.8	3.6	4.2	4.3	4.4	3.97
Lithuania	2.3	3.0	3.1	3.5	3.4	3.6	3.15

Among the Non-OECD countries we see only South Africa above 5%, and three others from 4 to 5% and only Indonesia and Lithuania from 3 to 4%.

The major concern over the last few years has not been inflation but rather Deflation. However, so far in 2017 deflation hasn’t been much of an issue.

Lowest Annual Inflation Among OECD Countries

Lowest to Highest	Jan-2017	Feb-2017	Mar-2017	Apr-2017	May-2017	Jun-2017	2017 Average
Japan	0.4	0.3	0.2	0.4	0.4	0.4	0.35
Ireland	0.3	0.5	0.7	0.9	0.2	-0.4	0.37
Switzerland	0.3	0.6	0.6	0.4	0.5	0.2	0.43
Israel	0.1	0.4	0.9	0.7	0.8	-0.2	0.45
Finand	0.8	1.2	0.8	0.8	0.7	0.7	0.83
Denmark	0.9	1.0	1.0	1.1	0.8	0.6	0.90
Slovak Republic	0.7	1.1	1.0	0.8	1.1	1.0	0.95

The lowest inflation country based on the average annual inflation for the first half of 2017 was Japan and it was still above zero so there was no deflation. However both Israel and Ireland dipped into deflationary territory for the 12 months ending in June 2017.

Lowest Annual Inflation Among Non-OECD Countries

Lowest to Highest	Jan-2017	Feb-2017	Mar-2017	Apr-2017	May-2017	Jun-2017	2017 Average
Saudi Arabia	-0.4	-0.1	-0.4	-0.6	-0.7	-0.4	-0.433
China	2.5	0.8	0.9	1.2	1.5	1.5	1.40
Costa Rica	0.7	1.1	1.6	1.6	1.7	1.8	1.42
India	2.6	2.6	2.6	2.2	1.1	1.1	2.03

Among non-OECD countries Saudi Arabia has been slightly deflationary for all of 2017

OECD Annual Inflation (2015-2017)

	2015	2016	2017 (Ave. First Half)
Australia	1.5	1.3	2.0
Austria	0.9	0.9	2.0
Belgium	0.6	2	2.2
Canada	1.1	1.4	1.6
Chile	4.3	3.8	2.5
Czech Republic	0.3	0.7	2.3
Denmark	0.5	0.3	0.9
Estonia	-0.5	0.4	3.0
Finland	-0.2	0.4	0.8
France	0.0	0.2	1.0
Germany	0.2	0.5	1.8
Greece	-1.7	-0.8	1.3
Hungary	-0.1	0.4	2.3
Iceland	1.6	1.7	1.8
Ireland	-0.3	0.0	0.4
Israel	-0.6	-0.5	0.5
Italy	0	-0.1	1.4
Japan	0.8	-0.1	0.4
Korea	0.7	1.0	2.0
Latvia	0.2	0.1	3.2
Luxembourg	0.5	0.3	1.7
Mexico	2.7	2.8	5.6
Netherlands	0.6	0.3	1.4
New Zealand	0.3	0.6	2.0
Norway	2.2	3.6	2.3
Poland	-0.9	-0.7	2.0
Portugal	0.5	0.6	1.5
Slovak Republic	-0.3	-0.5	1.0
Slovenia	-0.5	-0.1	1.6
Spain	-0.5	-0.2	2.4
Sweden	0	1.0	1.6
Switzerland	-1.1	-0.4	0.4
Turkey	7.7	7.8	10.9
United Kingdom	0	0.7	1.7
United States	0.1	1.3	2.2
Euro area	0	0.2	1.7
OECD Total (Estimated)	0.6	1.1	2.3

Deflationary pressures were much more evident during 2015 and 2016.

Non-OECD Annual Inflation (2015-2017)

	2015	2016	2017 (Ave. First Half)
Brazil	9.0	8.7	4.3
China	1.4	2.0	1.4
Colombia	5	7.5	4.8
Costa Rica	0.8	0.0	1.4
India	5.9	4.9	2.0
Indonesia	6.4	3.5	4.0
Lithuania	-0.9	0.9	3.2
Russian Federation	15.5	7.0	4.4
Saudi Arabia	2.2	3.5	-0.4
South Africa	4.5	6.6	5.8

2017 OECD Annual Inflation (Sorted Alphabetically)

The following table shows inflation rates for the 12 months preceding each of the columns.

OECD Countries	Jan-2017	Feb-2-17	Mar-2017	Apr-2017	May-2017	Jun-2017
Australia	2.1	2.1	2.1	1.9	1.9	1.9
Austria	2.0	2.2	1.9	2.1	1.9	1.9
Belgium	2.6	3.0	2.3	2.3	1.9	1.6
Canada	2.1	2.0	1.6	1.6	1.3	1.0
Chile	2.8	2.7	2.7	2.7	2.6	1.7
Czech Republic	2.2	2.5	2.6	2	2.4	2.3
Denmark	0.9	1.0	1.0	1.1	0.8	0.6
Estonia	2.6	3.4	2.8	3.2	3.3	2.9
Finand	0.8	1.2	0.8	0.8	0.7	0.7
France	1.3	1.2	1.1	1.2	0.8	0.7
Germany	1.9	2.2	1.6	2.0	1.5	1.6
Greece	1.2	1.3	1.7	1.6	1.2	1.0
Hungary	2.3	2.8	2.7	2.2	2.1	1.9
Iceland	1.9	1.9	1.6	1.9	1.7	1.5
Ireland	0.3	0.5	0.7	0.9	0.2	-0.4
Israel	0.1	0.4	0.9	0.7	0.8	-0.2
Italy	1.0	1.6	1.4	1.9	1.4	1.2
Japan	0.4	0.3	0.2	0.4	0.4	0.4
Korea	2.0	1.9	2.2	1.9	2.0	1.9
Latvia	2.9	3.3	3.4	3.4	2.8	3.0
Luxembourg	1.7	1.8	1.7	1.9	1.7	1.5
Mexico	4.7	4.9	5.4	5.8	6.2	6.3
Netherlands	1.7	1.8	1.1	1.6	1.1	1.1
New Zealand	2.2	2.2	2.2	1.7	1.7	1.7
Norway	2.8	2.5	2.4	2.2	2.1	1.9
Poland	1.8	2.2	2.1	2.0	2.0	1.6
Portugal	1.3	1.6	1.4	2.0	1.5	0.9
Slovak Republic	0.7	1.1	1.0	0.8	1.1	1.0
Slovenia	1.3	2.3	1.9	1.8	1.5	0.9
Spain	3	3.0	2.3	2.6	1.9	1.5
Sweden	1.4	1.8	1.3	1.9	1.7	1.7
Switzerland	0.3	0.6	0.6	0.4	0.5	0.2
Turkey	9.2	10.1	11.3	11.9	11.7	10.9
United Kingdom	1.8	2.0	1.5	1.9	1.4	1.3
United States	2.5	2.7	2.4	2.2	1.9	1.6
Euro area	1.8	2.0	1.5	1.9	1.4	1.3
OECD Total (Estimated)	2.3	2.5	2.3	2.4	2.1	1.9

2017 Non-OECD Annual Inflation (Sorted Alphabetically)

	Jan-2017	Feb-2-17	Mar-2017	Apr-2017	May-2017	Jun-2017
Brazil	5.4	4.8	4.6	4.1	3.6	3.0
China	2.5	0.8	0.9	1.2	1.5	1.5
Colombia	5.5	5.2	4.7	4.7	4.4	4.0
Costa Rica	0.7	1.1	1.6	1.6	1.7	1.8
India	2.6	2.6	2.6	2.2	1.1	1.1
Indonesia	3.5	3.8	3.6	4.2	4.3	4.4
Lithuania	2.3	3.0	3.1	3.5	3.4	3.6
Russian Federation	5.0	4.6	4.2	4.1	4.1	4.4
Saudi Arabia	-0.4	-0.1	-0.4	-0.6	-0.7	-0.4
South Africa	6.8	6.5	6.1	5.2	5.3	5.0

Note: The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) is an intergovernmental economic organisation with 35 member countries, founded in 1960 to stimulate economic progress and world trade, headquartered in Paris France. In addition to its other functions the OECD publishes books, reports, statistics, working papers and reference materials.

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Source: http://www.keepeek.com/Digital-Asset-Management/oecd/economics/main-economic-indicators/volume-2017/issue-8_mei-v2017-8-en#page33