Who does inflation help and who does inflation hurt? When we first think of inflation we assume that it will affect all people equally. After all if everyone is using the same dollars wouldn't everyone be affected equally? The fact of course is that everyone isn't affected equally. Our second assumption might be that the poor would be hurt the worst because they earn minimum wage and everything they buy is getting more expensive. However, if the minimum wage is indexed to inflation they would about break even. So interestingly if the minimum wage earners are also deep in debt inflation actually helps them. The reason for this is that debtors borrow valuable money and the number of … [Read more...]
Inflation Falls by Half – As Hurricane Katrina Effects Wear Off
At 2.06% September's Annual Inflation rate came in at almost exactly half of the 4.15% Annual rate that existed only two months earlier in July. But does that mean that all of our inflation worries are over, the FED’s tightening has worked and all is right with the world? Not Hardly! I certainly wish we were reentering the days of low inflation, low interest rates and a recovering economy. But that is not the case this month. What we have is a simple rebound effect from… believe it or not… Hurricane Katrina. It is hard to believe but the one year anniversary of Hurricane Katrina has passed. With it’s passing we have the spike in prices that it caused passing too. The interesting … [Read more...]
Protect Yourself From Inflation
Inflation Warning!!! How do you protect yourself now? In a recent article, I discussed how Gold was not strictly an inflation hedge but more a crisis hedge against worry of all sorts. See How has Gold fared as an Inflation hedge? In another article, How the Iraq War will affect the U.S. economy, I discussed how a wartime economy almost guarantees future inflation. So naturally several readers wrote to ask, “What is the best way to protect against inflation?” … [Read more...]
Inflation and the Iraq War
Inflation Warning!!! Inflation is already "baked into the cake" You need to protect yourself now! Wars almost by definition are inflationary. This has been true since almost the beginning of time. Inflation is determined by the quantity of goods vs. the available money supply. See The Definition of Inflation The very nature of War results in the destruction of goods. But in normal times money is spent to produce goods which makes the world a richer place. During a war, however, things are produced but... they are not productive things but destructive. The money is spent to destroy things. Often this is combined with an increase in the money supply in order to pay for the … [Read more...]
Inflation similarities between the 2000s and the 1970s
"even though we have not seen the volatility of the 70's we are certainly traveling in the same direction." In the 70s, gold spiked to over $800, Inflation rates were over 14%, OPEC limited the supply of Oil, there were wars in the Middle East and the U.S. economy was a wreck. In the 2000s, Gold has doubled from $250 and ounce to over $500, inflation has doubled from 2% in 2002 to over 4% in 2005, Oil supply is maxed out, the decade began with a recession... is there any chance that we are returning to the 70s? Recently I was asked, whether I saw any similarities between the 1970's and the current decade. And that got me to thinking. If you remember the 70's culminated in a double digit … [Read more...]
Inflation, Oil and the Environment
I recently received a great question from a 6th Grader on Inflation, Gas Prices and the environment all rolled into one. It isn't often that 6th graders think about these issues so I would like to share my response with you... To whom it may concern, My name is Sam and I am a 6th grade student at (deleted) Middle School. I love traveling. Whenever I go places I see lots and lots of poverty. I think to myself why? Than I look ahead of me and see the outrage sky high prices for food, gas and many other things. You may be wondering why I’m telling you this .I’m doing a project on one of the things that you know a ton about. My subject is inflation of consumer and gas prices. As I think … [Read more...]
Hurricane Katrina: The Economics of Disaster
The Economics of Disaster: Are Hurricanes Inflationary or Deflationary? Insurance companies have estimated the damage from hurricane Katrina at $25 Billion Dollars. But the economic effect is much greater than that. That is just the loss of property. Another consideration is the loss of revenue while things are being rebuilt. What about the loss of jobs from the companies who won’t be rebuilding because they didn’t have insurance? According to the “Financial Times” current estimates of “total economic losses” are closer to $100 Billion. Those numbers are so large that it is almost impossible for us to get our minds around it. If you stacked 100 billion one dollar bills on top of each … [Read more...]
Greenspan’s Comments on Inflation
Remarks by Chairman Alan Greenspan Financial education At the JumpStart Coalition's Annual Meeting, Washington, D.C. April 3, 2003 I am pleased to be here today to share with you my perspective on the importance of financial education. I commend the leadership of the JumpStart Coalition and the activities it has undertaken to support teachers working on the front-line of financial education. Trends in Consumer Finances As you are aware, today's financial world is highly complex when compared with that of a generation ago. An understanding of how to maintain a checking and savings account at a local financial institution may have been sufficient twenty-five years ago. Today's … [Read more...]
