April Inflation Down Slightly

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released its April 2025 Inflation report on May 13th, 2025. The report showed that Annual Inflation was down from 2.4% in March to to 2.3% in April.

Calculated to two digits, it was 2.39% in March and 2.31% in April. Although this month’s numbers look good, there is a distinct possibility that low inflation won’t last. (See this month’s MIP).

April’s Inflation Prediction:

At 2.31%, April inflation numbers came in between last month’s “likely low” and “extreme low” projections.

This Month’s MIP

The current MIP projection shows that inflation could rise through August.

This is because those months were much lower than average in 2024. So, as the monthly numbers fall out of the calculation if average numbers replace them, the total annual inflation will rise. The monthly numbers were:

May-24	Jun-24	Jul-24	Aug-24
0.17%	0.03%	0.12%	0.16%

March 2025 was very low at 0.22%, but even if we have another four months like that, annual inflation will still rise.

See this month’s MIP prediction

Annual Inflation… 2.31% in April 2025

Annual Inflation fell from 2.39% 2.31%
CPI Index rose from 319.799 to 320.795
Monthly Inflation for April was 0.31% down from 0.39% a year ago.
Next release June 11^th 2025

	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	June	July	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec
2025	3.00%	2.82%	2.39%	2.31%	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
2024	3.09%	3.15%	3.48%	3.36%	3.27%	2.97%	2.89%	2.53%	2.44%	2.60%	2.75%	2.89%
2023	6.41%	6.04%	4.98%	4.93%	4.05%	2.97%	3.18%	3.67%	3.70%	3.24%	3.14%	3.35%

BLS Commentary:

The BLS Commissioner reported:

“The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in April, after falling 0.1 percent in March, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today.

Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.3 percent before seasonal adjustment. The index for shelter rose 0.3 percent in April, accounting for more than half of the all items monthly increase. The energy index also increased over the month, rising 0.7 percent as increases in the natural gas index and the electricity index more than offset a decline in the gasoline index.

The index for food, in contrast, fell 0.1 percent in April as the food at home index decreased 0.4 percent and the food away from home index rose 0.4 percent over the month. The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.2 percent in April, following a 0.1-percent increase in March. Indexes that increased over the month include household furnishings and operations, medical care, motor vehicle insurance, education, and personal care. The indexes for airline fares, used cars and trucks, communication, and apparel were among the major indexes that decreased in April. “

Looking at table A below we can see that on an annual basis energy is down -3.7% but on a monthly basis it is up 0.7%.

The biggest gainers on an annual basis were Services like Food away from home, shelter and medical care services.

Looking at table A below we can see that on an annual basis energy is down as well as on a monthly basis.

The biggest gainers on an annual basis were Services like Food away from home, Energy Services, shelter, and transportation services. On a monthly basis, in addition to Energy, Used Vehicles, Medical Care Commodities, and Transportation Services were down.

Inflation: All Items vs. Without Food and Energy

Although these “Seasonally Adjusted” numbers are slightly different than those typically presented by the BLS, the following chart from the Federal Reserve shows the gap between inflation with and without Food and Energy. Comparing the two highlights how much food and energy contribute to overall inflation.

Without food and energy, inflation would be 2.78%. But due to the downward pressure of Energy, total inflation according to the FED is 2.33%.

Source: St. Louis FED

FED Monetary Policy

April 2025 Summary:

FED Assets are Falling
M2 Money supply is rising
FED Funds Rates Remain at 4.33%

FED Assets and M2 Money Supply

FED Assets continue downward.

BUT… rather than decline as FED assets are doing, M2 returned to the same upward slope of increase as from 2012-2020 (#5).

Global M2

The FED isn’t the only one pumping the money supply. Most other countries also follow the FED’s lead. So, Global M2 Money Supply (the composite of all the major countries’ money supplies) is also growing. We can see that on a global scale the money supply has been increasing throughout 2025. Generally, an increase in the money supply will result in a rising stock market with a 2 to 4-month delay.

FED Funds Rate

The chart below shows the rapid increase in interest rates from February 2022, when they were just 0.08%, to a year later, when they were at 4.57%. From August 2023 through August 2024, the FED maintained a stable Funds Rate at 5.33%. Then, in September, the FED announced a 1/2% reduction in the range. October numbers show the rate at 4.83%. At its November meeting, the Fed lowered the federal funds target range by 25 basis points to 4.5%-4.75%, with the actual rate coming in at 4.48% in December. On December 19, 2024 they lowered the target range to 4.25 – 4.50%. Since then, the FED held its Funds rate steady from January through April 2025 at 4.33%. And it continued to hold steady at the May 7th FED Meeting.

More info about FED Monetary Policy and Inflation

Inflation Chart

Monthly Inflation Compared to Previous Years:

The monthly inflation rate for April 2025 was 0.31%, slightly less than April 2024’s 0.39%.

Not Seasonally Adjusted Monthly Inflation Rates

Note: January 2022’s 0.84% was the highest January since 1990. June was the highest June since 1941 (although the first quarter of 1980 had some higher rates). Typically, the first quarter has the highest monthly inflation and the 4th quarter is the lowest (even negative).

	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec
2016	0.17%	0.08%	0.43%	0.47%	0.41%	0.33%	(0.16%)	0.09%	0.24%	0.12%	(0.16%)	0.03%
2017	0.58%	0.31%	0.08%	0.30%	0.09%	0.09%	(0.07%)	0.30%	0.53%	(0.06%)	0.002%	(0.06%)
2018	0.54%	0.45%	0.23%	0.40%	0.42%	0.16%	0.01%	0.06%	0.12%	0.18%	(0.33%)	(0.32%)
2019	0.19%	0.42%	0.56%	0.53%	0.21%	0.02%	0.17%	(0.01%)	0.08%	0.23%	(0.05%)	(0.09%)
2020	0.39%	0.27%	(0.22%)	(0.67%)	0.002%	0.55%	0.51%	0.32%	0.14%	0.04%	(0.06%)	0.09%
2021	0.43%	0.55%	0.71%	0.82%	0.80%	0.93%	0.48%	0.21%	0.27%	0.83%	0.49%	0.31%
2022	0.84%	0.91%	1.34%	0.56%	1.10%	1.37%	(0.01%)	(0.04%)	0.22%	0.41%	(0.10%)	(0.34%)
2023	0.80%	0.56%	0.33%	0.51%	0.25%	0.32%	0.19%	0.44%	0.25%	(0.04%)	(0.20%)	(0.10%)
2024	0.54%	0.62%	0.65%	0.39%	0.17%	0.03%	0.12%	0.08%	0.16%	0.12%	(0.05%)	0.04%
2025	0.65%	0.44%	0.22%	0.31%

See: Monthly Inflation Rate for more information and a complete table of Unadjusted Monthly Rates.

Misery Index

Current Misery Index:

Unemployment 4.20% + Inflation 2.31% = 6.51%

This month, inflation is down and unemployment is unchanged, so the misery index is down slightly to 6.51%.

[Read More on the Misery Index…]

Rate of Change (ROC) Charts

Despite the recent rebound the NYSE ROC hasn’t recovered from the November Sell Signal.

The NASDAQ ROC also remains in sell mode.

Bitcoin generated a Sell signal in February.

On March 4th the Fear and Greed Index was in extreme Fear territory. According to Warren Buffet, we should buy when others are fearful.

That would have been a good opportunity to pick up some bargains. By May 14, it had moved into greed territory, providing a very brief window of opportunity. But the “V” shaped correction didn’t allow much time for indecision.

For more information, see NYSE Rate of Change (ROC) , NASDAQ ROC Chart, and Crypto ROC .

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