• Home
  • Related Sites
    • Financial Trend Forecaster
      • Moore Inflation Predictor
      • NYSE Rate of Change (ROC)
      • NASDAQ Rate of Change (ROC)
      • Crypto ROC- BTC & ETH
    • Unemployment Data
      • Historical Employment Data
      • Unemployment Rate Chart
      • Labor Force Participation Rate
    • Optio Money
    • Elliott Wave University
    • More Resources
  • Definitions
    • What is Inflation?
    • What is Core Inflation?
    • Inflation vs CPI
    • What is Deflation?
    • What is Disinflation?
    • What is Agflation?
    • What is Stagflation?
    • What is Hyperinflation?
    • What is Quantitative Easing?
    • What is Quantitative Tightening?
    • What is Velocity of Money?
    • What is Fiat Currency?
    • How Do I Calculate Inflation?
    • What are “Sticky Prices” and Why Do They Matter?
  • Featured Content
  • About Us
  • Feedback
    • Sitemap
  • Subscribe Now

InflationData.com

Your Place in Cyber Space for Inflation Data

CPI Index

CPI / Inflation-for August 25
  • Numerical Inflation Data
    • Current Inflation Rate
    • Monthly Inflation Rate
    • Historical U.S. Inflation Rates
    • Historical CPI
  • Inflation Charts
    • Ann. Inf. Rate Chart
    • Long Term Inflation >
      • Ave. Inf. by Decade
      • Total Inf. by Decade
      • Inflation 1913-1919
      • Inflation 1920-1929
      • Inflation 1930-1939
      • Inflation 1940-1949
      • Inflation 1950-1959
      • Inflation 1960-1969
      • Inflation 1970-1979
    • Cumulative Inflation
    • FED Monetary Policy and Inflation
    • Inflation and Recession
    • Confederate Inflation (1861 – 1865)
    • Misery Index
    • The 3 Stages of Inflation
    • 15-Yr Inflation Trends Chart
  • Inflation Calculators
    • Cumulative Inf. Calc.
    • How Much Would it Cost
    • Salary Inf. Calc.
    • Cost of Living Calc.
    • U.K. Inf. Calc.
    • Cost of Gas Calc.
    • Net Worth Calc.
    • Lifetime Earnings Calc.
    • Savings Goal Calc.
    • Financial Calculators
  • Inf. Adjusted Prices
    • Energy >
      • Inflation Adj. Gas Prices
      • Historical Oil Prices Chart
      • Crude Oil Price (Table)
      • Natural Gas Prices
      • Electricity Prices
      • Oil vs Gold
    • Gold >
      • Inflation Adjusted Annual Average Gold Prices
      • Gold is a “Crisis Hedge” not an  “Inflation Hedge”
      • Comparing Oil vs. Gold
    • Corn Prices
    • Education Inflation
    • Housing Prices
    • Mortgage Rates
    • NYSE Index
    • Inf. Indexed Bonds
    • Movie Revenues
    • Inflation-Adjusted Wages
  • Cost of Living
    • Calculate Cost of Living
    • Cost-of-living Adj. (COLA)
    • Consumer Price Index CPI
      • Historical CPI
      • Current CPI
      • CPI Release Dates
    • Gas Prices >
      • Cost of Gas
      • Cost of Gas Per Month
      • Gas vs. Oil Price Chart
    • Food Prices 1913 vs 2013
    • Health Insurance
  • Blog
    • Key Inflation Articles
    • International Inflation
    • Historical Inflation Rates for Japan (1971 to 2014)
You are here: Home » Blog » Government » BLS » September CPI Data Delay Causes Social Security COLA Concerns

September CPI Data Delay Causes Social Security COLA Concerns

Published on October 15, 2025 by Tim McMahon Leave a Comment

Social Security COLA

Generated by AI

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics’ September inflation data release was scheduled to occur on Wednesday, October 15th, 2025, but at this point it has been postponed until October 24th, due to the government shutdown. Despite the shutdown, the Labor Department is recalling some employees to finalize the inflation data. Much of the information was already collected before the government closed, meaning it can still be processed and published relatively quickly.

September Inflation Data Holds the Key to 2026 Social Security COLA

The Labor Department’s September inflation report is critical because it is used to calculate the 2026 Social Security cost-of-living adjustment (COLA). So the September data affects payments to more than 70 million Americans.
The COLA is designed to ensure that Social Security benefits keep pace with rising prices and is determined using inflation data from the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W). A recent estimate from non-governmental analysts projected that the 2026 adjustment would come in around 2.7%, but that figure is subject to change depending on how September’s inflation numbers ultimately look. Even a small uptick in prices could raise the adjustment, while lower-than-expected inflation might bring it down.
Note: The new Social Security cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) takes effect in January of 2026. The COLA is actually based on inflation data from the entire third quarter (July–September), not just September.
The BLS’s numbers feed more than just Social Security COLA calculations, but also for policymakers, investors, and the Federal Reserve, all of whom rely on accurate inflation data to make key decisions.
The Government shutdown has already affected the September employment report, which was due October 3rd, but was not released due to the shutdown. That report was also largely complete and could be issued quickly once normal government operations resume. However, October’s economic data, including future inflation and employment numbers, may face longer delays since the data collection work can’t proceed until federal employees return.

Although modern technology has transformed data collection in many corporate fields, the Consumer Price Index still depends heavily on traditional, antiquated survey methods. About 60% of CPI data comes from government surveyors who physically visit or call stores, clinics, and service providers to record real-world prices on everything from groceries to medical visits. This manual process makes CPI compilation particularly vulnerable during shutdowns. It has also raised concerns of inefficiency, inaccuracy, and the opportunity for outright fudging due to lazy government employees.
Meanwhile, private-sector firms have stepped in to fill the information gap. Companies like PriceStats, which tracks millions of online prices from around 25 countries, produce near–real-time inflation indicators with just a three-day lag. Another firm, Truflation, aggregates data from more than 30 sources, covering millions of prices, to generate daily inflation estimates that it markets as an independent “real-time CPI.” These alternative data streams are increasingly watched by economists seeking early insights prior to the official government data release.

Interestingly, Truflation is saying that inflation is around 2.21% which is much lower than the BLS numbers, which were 2.92% in August.  Most Americans believe that the BLS underestimates inflation in an effort to reduce COLA payments, so it is surprising that Truflation numbers are actually lower than the BLS numbers.

September Inflation Data Critical for More Than Just COLA

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged alternative data sources in remarks to the National Association for Business Economics, noting that the central bank is relying more heavily on private-sector data sources, such as payroll processor ADP, which provides its own monthly employment report.
If the government shutdown continues and official reports remain scarce, it could complicate the Federal Reserve’s upcoming interest rate decisions. Without timely inflation and employment data, policymakers may have to depend on less standardized private indicators—adding another layer of uncertainty to an already delicate economic balancing act.
For now, all eyes remain on October 24, when the September inflation report is expected to finally shed light on what retirees can expect from their 2026 Social Security COLA.

Summary:
The Labor Department’s September inflation report, delayed until October 24 by the government shutdown, will determine the 2026 Social Security COLA, currently estimated at 2.7%. Since much of the Consumer Price Index relies on manual data collection, the delay underscores the system’s vulnerability. With official data stalled, the Federal Reserve and others are turning to private sources like PriceStats and Truflation for real-time inflation insights. The final numbers will set the 2026 COLA, which takes effect in January 2026, impacting millions of Social Security recipients.

Read More:

  • What is the Difference between the CPI-U and the CPI-W
  • How is a COLA calculated?
  • What is Core Inflation and Why Doesn’t It Include Food and Energy?

About Tim McMahon

Connect with Tim on Google+.

  • Web|
  • Twitter|
  • Facebook|
  • LinkedIn|
  • More Posts(400)

Filed Under: BLS Tagged With: COLA, CPI. October 2025, SEptember 2025, Social Security

Leave a Reply Cancel reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.

Latest Posts

  • September CPI Data Delay Causes Social Security COLA Concerns
  • August 2025 Inflation Report
  • Is the FED Getting Soft on Inflation?
  • July Inflation Report
  • AI Is Deflationary But Its Energy Demand Could Fuel Inflation
  • June Inflation Up Again
  • FED’s Semiannual Monetary Policy Report
  • What Is the Trimmed Mean CPI and What Is It Good For?

Sponsored:

Get 3 Stocks Poised to Join the "Trillion Dollar" Club - FREE

Futurist Eric Fry has recommended 40+ stocks that have gone on to soar more than 1,000%. Now, he's revealing 3 new AI stock picks he predicts could soon reach the coveted trillion-dollar milestone. Only 10 companies in history have surpassed the $1T mark, but AI is accelerating wealth creation faster than ever before. Get Eric Fry's research today and position yourself for what could be a very exciting ride to the top...

YES! Send me the names, tickers and research - FREE

----------

As a Seasoned Investor I thought I'd seen everything... But recently I discovered TradingView which has really improved the information I have at my fingertips.~ Tim McMahon, editor

Whether you're a beginner or a seasoned trader, TradingView gives you the edge. Access powerful charting tools, real-time market data, and a global community of traders—all in one intuitive platform. With hundreds of indicators, custom scripts, and seamless brokerage integration, TradingView isn't just a charting tool—it's your full trading command center.

Trade smarter. Trade faster. Trade with TradingView.

----------

The Best Place to Buy Your Crypto

Coinbase is the largest Crypto Trading platform in the U.S. and the easiest to use. ~Tim McMahon, editor

Check out Coinbase here

Subscribe Now

eTrends Signup Form

Elliott Wave Resources

Free Elliott Wave Resources

What is Waveopedia?

Waveopedia is EWI’s free, comprehensive index of Elliott wave patterns and terms. Everyone from beginners to experts can benefit from it. It’s a great place to send your followers if they’re new to Elliott waves.

  • Deflation Hits China is the U.S. Next?

  • Why You Must Avoid the Herding Trap

  • Chasing Trends Can Cost You

  • More Education Resources

Post Archives

Home | Articles | Sitemap | Terms of Service | Privacy | Disclaimer | Advertise With Us

Copyright © 1996-2025 · Capital Professional Services, LLC · Maintained by Design Synergy Studio · Admin

Do Not Sell My Personal Information